Las Vegas Sun

March 18, 2024

Week 12 NFL picks and game of the week for the Sun’s handicapping contest

Are the Browns and Falcons both on their way to division titles and home playoff games?

Falcons Panthers

ASSOCIATED PRESS

The Atlanta Falcons huddle before an NFL football game against the Carolina Panthers in Charlotte, N.C., Sunday, Nov. 16, 2014. The Falcons won 19-17.

A parlay placed at the beginning of the season tying the Atlanta Falcons winning the NFC South to the Cleveland Browns taking the AFC North would have paid out 36-to-1.

Week 12: Browns at Falcons

Which side would you take in the Sun's handicapping game of the week? (Majority Poll Opinion this season: 7-5)
Browns plus-3 — 51.6%
Falcons minus-3 — 48.4%

This poll is closed, see Full Results »

Note: This is not a scientific poll. The results reflect only the opinions of those who chose to participate.

Talking Points NFL bet of the week

Talking Points college bet of the week

That implies a 3 percent chance, yet both teams were in first place of their respective divisions at different times during week 11. The Browns spent all week on top of the AFC North before the Falcons came out of last Sunday with the NFC South lead.

Atlanta is now down from the preseason price of 4-to-1 to plus-180 (risking $1 to win $1.80) in their frail division while the rugged AFC North results in Cleveland only lowered from plus-650 to 6-to-1. A hypothetical division futures parlay with Cleveland and Atlanta would now pay 18-to-1.

Either way, it was a steep long shot that a week 12 game between the two teams would be worth paying attention to at the beginning of the year.

Cleveland’s trip to Atlanta on Sunday, however, pairs two playoff contenders and falls as the game of the week in the Sun’s handicapping contest. All three competing sportswriters used one of their six weekly picks against the spread — available at the bottom of the page — on the game where the Falcons enter as a 3-point favorite.

There’s no getting around the surprising nature of the two interconference teams’ seasons. For the Browns, it’s in a good way.

Oddsmakers had Cleveland tied with the third lowest over/under season win total of 6.5 victories before the season. The Browns could become the second team in the NFL to eclipse their total — behind the Arizona Cardinals, which have already won nine games to beat 7.5 — by beating the Falcons and improving to 7-3.

The Falcons barely have a prayer of threatening their over/under 8.5 victories, even if they do hold onto the divisional crown. Atlanta would have to go 5-1 over its final six games, which includes pairings where they’ll be underdogs at Green Bay and at New Orleans and a projected pick’em hosting Arizona next week.

The Falcons have fallen drastically since the beginning of the year, well illustrated by CG Technologies sports books’ point spread of minus-7 in this spot against Cleveland in their full-season lines released in the summer. The Browns were all the way down to plus-1.5 at Atlanta before last week’s games, when they fell 23-7 as 4.5-point favorites against the Texans while the Falcons rallied for a 19-17 victory over the Panthers as 2.5-point favorites.

Atlanta’s issues are plentiful, but the offense may have shouldered an unjust brunt of the blame for its 4-6 straight-up and against the spread record. A makeshift offensive line hasn’t protected quarterback Matt Ryan adequately throughout the season as a while.

But the maligned unit led by rookie left tackle Jake Matthews seems to have improved during a 2-1 straight-up and against the spread run that started with a 22-21 loss to Detroit in London as 3.5-point underdogs.

At fifth in the NFL with 2,793 passing yards, Ryan is not having as poor of a season as popularly perceived. Lead running back Steven Jackson, a Las Vegas native, is often referred to as washed up but he could surpass his rushing total from last year in one fewer game with 76 yards against the Browns.

The running game fits right in with NFL averages at 4.1 yards per carry and five gains of more than 20 yards.

Atlanta is scoring enough to have a winning record. It’s not stopping enough. The defense is a disgrace, ranking dead last in Football Outsiders’ DVOA ratings.

Especially atrocious against the pass, the Falcons are surrendering an NFL-worst eight yards per pass attempt to their opponents.

Perfect conditions shape up for the return of Cleveland’s Josh Gordon. The NFL’s leading receiver from last season, who broke a number of records, has teammates raving.

Pro-Bowl cornerback Joe Haden called for Gordon to have 250 yards in his first game back from a 10-week disciplinary suspension. Gordon will have a different quarterback throwing to him than most expected when the NFL handed his penalty down.

Brian Hoyer, fitting with both trending quarterback camps of Tom Brady understudies and former Michigan State Spartans, has held off polarizing rookie Johnny Manziel with his command of the offense. Before the season, the over/under of Manziel starts was at 9.5 games.

The prop bet only included regular-season matchups, but Manziel couldn’t beat the number even if he started every remaining Browns game after Sunday and led the team to the Super Bowl. Despite substantial improvements, no one is picking the Browns to live up to Haden’s prophecy of bringing a championship to Cleveland before LeBron James this season.

The Browns are 100-to-1 to win the Super Bowl at the Westgate Las Vegas Superbook. The Falcons, with an easier path to the playoffs, are 60-to-1.

Those are the exact numbers that Cleveland and Atlanta had in the futures coming into the season. They might be the only measures that haven’t gotten knocked out of whack in crazy seasons for both teams.

Check below for full picks from the handicapping contest with games listed in order of sports books’ rotation number.

 

Taylor Bern

Record: 37-27-2 (3-3 last week)

Falcons minus-3 vs. Browns

Patriots minus-7 vs. Lions

Texans minus-2 vs. Bengals

Cardinals plus-7 at Seahawks

Saints minus-3.5 vs. Ravens

Jets plus-2.5 vs. Bills in Detroit

 

Ray Brewer (2013 co-champion)

Record: 36-30 (2-4 last week)

Falcons minus-3 vs. Browns

Cardinals plus-7 at Seahawks

Chargers minus-4.5 vs. Rams

Broncos minus-7 vs. Dolphins

Redskins plus-9 vs. 49ers

Jets plus-2.5 vs. Bills in Detroit

 

Case Keefer (2012 champion, 2013 co-champion)

Record: 34-32 (1-5 last week)

Browns plus-3 at Falcons

Bengals plus-2 at Texans

Seahawks minus-7 vs. Cardinals

Chargers minus-4.5 vs. Rams

Dolphins plus-7 at Broncos

Ravens plus-3.5 at Saints

Case Keefer can be reached at 948-2790 or [email protected]. Follow Case on Twitter at twitter.com/casekeefer.

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