Week 10 NFL picks and game of the week for the Sun’s handicapping contest

By Case Keefer (contact)

Saturday, Nov. 8, 2014 | 2 a.m.

The disconnect between conventional wisdom and Las Vegas numbers on NFL teams reveals itself in a couple different ways every year.

With the regular season slightly past its halfway mark, the Arizona Cardinals are Exhibit A in 2014. Arizona, which is an NFL-best 7-1 straight-up and second-best 6-2 against the spread, falls first or second in the league in every major media source’s power rankings.

Finding a local oddsmaker with the Cardinals even in their power ratings’ top 10, however, is as difficult as locating fantasy football owners confident in using Larry Fitzgerald as their top receiver.

Whereas teams like Denver and Seattle have gone off as a touchdown or bigger favorite in more than half of their games, Arizona has never reached that plateau.

That could change this Sunday with the Cardinals currently listed as a 7-point favorite hosting the St. Louis Rams at most sports books, though the number is trending downward at minus-6.5 at some shops.

St. Louis at Arizona is the game of the week in the Sun’s handicapping contest with all three prognosticators using one of six weekly selections — available in full at the bottom of the page — on the NFC West duel.

To illuminate Arizona’s still middling respect by the betting line, consider St. Louis’ recent point spreads against the other two teams in the division.

The Rams were saddled with the same plus-7 line three weeks ago in their own stadium against the Seahawks, which they beat 28-26 in the game. Last week, the Rams closed as a 10.5-point underdog at San Francisco before prevailing 13-10.

The numbers might be against the Cardinals, but perhaps coach Bruce Arians has developed a Bill Belichick complex. Shrewd gamblers have accused the betting market of overvaluing Belichick’s Patriots for years, and yet, he’s a massively profitable 145-109-5 lifetime against the spread.

Arians has surpassed Belichick’s cashing prowess in the last three seasons. Arians is an NFL-best 25-10-1 against the spread since being promoted to interim coach of the Indianapolis Colts in 2012 and eventually taking over for the Cardinals.

The only time the betting line has ever favored one of his teams by a touchdown or more was week 11 of last year when Arizona beat Jacksonville 27-14 at minus-9.5.

Every year, prominent statistics have suggested the overwhelming success is an anomaly but the numbers are conspicuously flagrant this season.

The Cardinals are dead average as the NFL’s 16th best team in Football Outsiders’ DVOA ratings. They’re nearly 2.5 games better than inferred by their plus-36 point differential, which would yield an estimated 4.6 victories.

Arizona has a negative yardage total on the season, giving up 5.7 yards per play on defense to gaining 5.2 on offense.

The Cardinals’ rise boils down to two factors above all else — a plus-10 turnover margin and a knack for playing their best when needed.

In three of their wins this season, the Cardinals trailed going into the fourth quarter. They were down 17-14 to Philadelphia in week 8, 14-10 at the New York Giants in week 2 and 17-6 hosting San Diego in week 1.

Arizona outscored those three teams by a combined 33 points in the final 15 minutes. In two other victories, 24-13 over the Raiders in week 7 as 3.5-point favorites and 30-20 as 5-point favorites against the Redskins in week 6, the Cardinals entered the fourth quarter with small leads not enough to cover the spread.

Both late-game and turnover feats are typically seen as high variance with the tendency to flip and even out over the course of a whole season, but maybe that’s not the case for the Cardinals.

Their 12 interceptions, which ranks second in the NFL, shouldn’t sound like a fluke with the premium the franchise has put on placing ball hawks in their secondary. Starters Patrick Peterson, Tyrann Mathieu and Antonio Cromartie were all hailed as playmakers going back to their college days.

And that’s before even getting to veteran backups Rashad Johnson and Jerraud Powers, who both have multiple takeaways themselves on the year.

Fitzgerald and Carson Palmer have as much experience as any pair of offensive captains in the league with 11 and 12 years in he NFL, respectively.

Palmer has likely become underrated this season, as he’s ninth in the NFL in passing efficiency with 11 touchdowns to two interceptions. Written off after a few poor statistical outings to start the season, Fitzgerald has suddenly enjoyed three big performances with at least six catches and 70 yards since Palmer returned from a nerve injury a month ago.

Fitzgerald might be off his own pace, but his 35 catches for 513 yards this season is almost double the Rams’ leading healthy receiver — Kenny Britt, who has 18 catches for 281 yards. With three more players flaunting at least 300 receiving yards — receivers John Brown and Michael Floyd, and running back Andre Ellington — the Cardinals could threaten a Rams pass defense that rates last in the league according to DVOA.

Add another win and the attitude on the Cardinals only figures to increase around the NFL just as hastily as it stays about the same in Las Vegas.

Check below for all of this week’s picks with games listed in order of sports books’ rotation numbers.

 

Case Keefer (2012 champion, 2013 co-champion)

2014 Record: 31-23 (3-3 last week)

Dolphins plus-2.5 vs. Lions

Bills plus-2 vs. Chiefs

49ers plus-5.5 at Saints

Jets plus-4 vs. Steelers

Falcons at Buccaneers over 46

Rams plus-7 at Cardinals

 

Ray Brewer (2013 co-champion)

2014 Record: 31-23 (3-3 last week)

Lions minus-2.5 vs. Dolphins

Bills plus-2 vs. Chiefs

Steelers minus-4 at Jets

Falcons minus-2.5 at Buccaneers

Rams plus-7 at Cardinals

Panthers at Eagles over 48

 

Taylor Bern

2014 Record: 30-22-2 (4-2 last week)

49ers plus-5.5 at Saints

Titans plus-9.5 at Ravens

Falcons minus-2.5 at Buccaneers

Rams plus-7 at Cardinals

Packers minus-7 vs. Bears

Eagles minus-6.5 vs. Panthers

Case Keefer can be reached at 948-2790 or [email protected]. Follow Case on Twitter at twitter.com/casekeefer.