Week 9 NFL picks and game of the week for the Sun’s handicapping contest

By Case Keefer (contact)

Saturday, Nov. 1, 2014 | 2 a.m.

The most frequent and evenly matched rivalry of the NFL’s current era might get its most competitive chapter yet Sunday — and it’s not Peyton Manning vs. Tom Brady.

The Pittsburgh Steelers and Baltimore Ravens have shared easily the most compelling grudge on the field in the last several years. Pittsburgh has won and covered in eight of 15 meetings under the current coaching staffs, but Baltimore has outscored its AFC North rival by an average of 1.8 points per game.

Never in the period, which dates back to 2008, have they faced off with a point spread as low as minus-1.5. That’s where the line currently sits in favor of Baltimore heading into its Sunday Night Football game at Heinz Field in Pittsburgh.

It’s the game of the week in the Sun’s handicapping contest as all three sports staffers used one of their three weekly selections — available in full at the bottom of the page — on Pittsburgh at Baltimore.

Two of the three sided with the home underdog Steelers, a percentage not unlike the one sports books drew in the first matchup between the teams this season. Three days removed from the video of Ravens running back Ray Rice hitting his wife in an elevator surfacing, bettors mostly went with the less distracted Steelers as 2.5-point underdogs in week 2.

Losing tickets dotted the floors of sports books as Baltimore united for a 26-6 victory, only the second time in the aforementioned 15-game sample that the margin was more than double digits.

Pittsburgh will need to drum up some late support to repeat as the more popular bet coming in this week, as the line has already moved starkly towards Baltimore. The Steelers opened as 1.5-point favorites Sunday before money kept coming in on the Ravens.

Coming off of one of the greatest offensive performances in NFL history, it wouldn’t be a surprise to see the public start backing Pittsburgh closer to kickoff. Steelers quarterback Ben Roethlisberger became the first player to ever throw for 500 yards on more than one occasion when he completed 40 of 49 passes for 522 yards and six touchdowns in a 51-34 victory over the Colts.

It was the first time in 30 years that the franchise had broken the 50-point barrier.

The Steelers’ performance was appropriate going into a game with the Ravens, as both adversaries are traditionally more defensively-oriented but it’s offense that has them at 5-3 straight-up and tied for second in the AFC North this year.

Pittsburgh is fourth in the NFL at 6.1 yards per play, with Baltimore ranking 10th at 5.8.

The Ravens enter off of an opposite display. They might have put up their worst offensive showing of the season in a 27-24 loss at Cincinnati as 2.5-point favorites.

But the game was just as exciting to watch as the shootout between Pittsburgh and Indianapolis. Steve Smith Sr. appeared to score a game-winning 80-yard touchdown pass in the final seconds but the officials called it back for offensive pass interference.

The 35-year-old has breathed life into Baltimore’s passing game in his first season outside of Carolina with a team-leading 41 catches for 675 yards.

The Ravens’ historically dormant rushing attack from last season —the fourth worst ever tracked by Football Outsiders, which has data dating back to the 1989 season — has also rebounded. After cutting ties with Rice and minimizing Bernard Pierce, who was inactive last week, Baltimore is ninth in NFL at 4.4 yards per rushing attempt.

Jacksonville castoff Justin Forsett and Coastal Carolina rookie Lorenzo Taliaferro have worked as the unlikely leaders of the charge by averaging more than five yards per carry combined.

Skill positions might be the one area where Pittsburgh has a clear advantage, though. Wide receiver Antonio Brown is second in the NFL with 852 receiving yards. Running back Le’Veon Bell is the league’s third leading rusher at 697 yards.

At fifth in Football Outsiders’ DVOA ratings, however, Baltimore boasts the best defense Pittsburgh has seen all season. The Steelers’ talent didn’t handle the challenge well in the first meeting, as it was the first time in eight years and 19 meetings that they failed to score a touchdown on the Ravens.

The game was an outlier in more ways than one as 10 of the previous 14 duels were decided by three points or less. The NFL’s best rivalry will soon produce again.

Check below for full picks in the week 9 handicapping contest with games listed in order of kickoff time.

 

Case Keefer (2012 champion, 2013 co-champion)

2014 Record: 28-20 (4-2 last week)

Dolphins minus-2.5 vs. Chargers

Buccaneers plus-6.5 at Browns

Eagles minus-1 at Texans

Jets plus-9.5 at Chiefs

Ravens minus-1 at Steelers

Ravens at Steelers under 48

 

Ray Brewer (2013 co-champion)

2014 Record: 28-20 (3-3 last week)

Chargers plus-2.5 at Dolphins

Eagles at Texans over 48.5

49ers minus-10 vs. Rams

Patriots plus-3 vs. Broncos

Steelers plus-1 vs. Ravens

Giants plus-3 vs. Colts

 

Taylor Bern

2014 Record: 26-20-2 (3-3 last week)

Chargers plus-2.5 at Dolphins

Cardinals plus-3.5 at Cowboys

Patriots plus-3 vs. Broncos

Raiders plus-14.5 at Seahawks

Steelers plus-1 vs. Ravens

Giants plus-3 vs. Colts

Case Keefer can be reached at 948-2790 or [email protected]. Follow Case on Twitter at twitter.com/casekeefer.