Week 7 NFL picks and game of the week for the Sun’s handicapping contest

By Case Keefer (contact)

Saturday, Oct. 18, 2014 | 2 a.m.

By the seventh week of the NFL season, oddsmakers have tinkered with their numbers and ratings on most teams to reflect early returns.

Few teams are perceived identically to the way they were before the season. That’s why only three out of 14 tilts this weekend feature a current betting line within a half-point of where it sat this summer when CG Technologies opened spreads on every game.

One of those games between teams that sports books appeared to have impeccable reads on happens to be the most significant of Sunday’s early kickoffs. The Indianapolis Colts (4-2 straight-up, 5-1 against the spread) host the Cincinnati Bengals (3-1-1 straight-up, 3-2 against the spread) as 3-point favorites at Lucas Oil Stadium after posting at minus-2.5 in the game all the way back in May.

Cincinnati at Indianapolis is the game of the week in the Sun’s handicapping contest, which requires three sports writers to make six selections against the spread every week. The full list of week 7 bets is available at the bottom of the page.

The Colts and Bengals come into the game leading the AFC South and AFC North, respectively, precisely as oddsmakers pegged. The difference now is, the odds give Indianapolis a much better chance to hold on to its top spot in the standings.

The Colts are minus-500 to win the division for the second year in a row, implying a 76 percent chance after adjusting for the house’s hold. They’re the safest bet in the whole NFL to earn a home playoff game according to the odds.

The Bengals are plus-130 in their division, equaling a 39 percent probability. They remain at the top of the AFC North betting board, edging the Baltimore Ravens at plus-175, but the Bengals are the smallest favorite of the NFL’s eight divisions.

The gap isn’t indicative of bookmakers thinking more highly of the Colts. On the contrary, the game’s betting line illustrates the two teams are close to dead-even when factoring the customary three-point advantage for home field.

It’s just that the Bengals are tamed with more predatory division rivals. The AFC North is 8-4 against the spread in games against other divisions this season. The Colts’ AFC South is 7-9.

These two teams have always looked similar. They even came into the season tied for the seventh most likely Super Bowl winners in the Westgate Las Vegas Superbook’s futures odds at 22-to-1 apiece.

That means Indianapolis and Cincinnati were sports books’ most likely AFC contenders behind Denver and New England. San Diego has since crashed into the AFC’s top three in Super Bowl odds, but Indianapolis has stuck in fourth at 14-to-1 with Cincinnati rating fifth at 16-to-1.

They’re both teams with playoff pedigrees behind young quarterbacks who grew up in Houston. Neither Cincinnati quarterback Andy Dalton nor Indianapolis quarterback Andrew Luck have ever missed the postseason in five combined seasons.

Coming into the year, the thought was Indianapolis had the offensive advantage in large part because of Luck’s superiority over Dalton. But Cincinnati was supposed to be far better on defense, giving up nearly 100 less points than Indianapolis over the past two years.

Neither of those two perceptions has proven entirely accurate. While Luck has played sensationally to lead the NFL with 1,987 passing yards and 17 touchdowns, the offense is dragged down by an ineffective running game.

Indianapolis coach Chuck Pagano insists on giving Trent Richardson the bulk of the work, despite the former Alabama star gaining just 281 yards on 87 attempts — three less yards on 17 more carries than backup Ahmad Bradshaw. The Colts come in at 27th in Football Outsiders’ DVOA in rushing offense.

Because of those deficiencies, the Bengals’ offense comes in as more efficient by almost any meaningful measure. The Bengals are second in the NFL at 6.3 yards per play to Indianapolis’ 10th-best 5.8 yards per play. Cincinnati is fifth in offensive DVOA; Indianapolis is 12th.

While Cincinnati’s edge is largely attributed to balance — running backs Giovanni Bernard and Jeremy Hill combine to average nearly a yard more per carry than Richardson and Bradshaw — the difference between Dalton and Luck has been more negligible than anticipated.

Offshore sports book Bovada.lv might currently have Luck as the fourth-choice for the NFL’s MVP award at 13-to-2 with Dalton not listed, but the latter has a better yards per attempt than the former at 8.27 to 7.64.

Luck is only percentage points ahead of Dalton in passer rating, as the two rate seventh and ninth in the NFL respectively.

Observant bettors can’t complain much about either, but Luck specifically has been transcendent at covering betting lines. He’s 26-14-1 for his career against the spread while Dalton is also profitable at 30-22-4.

Concurrently, Cincinnati’s defensive supremacy is diminished. Colts cornerbacks Vontae Davis and Greg Toler might not yet be at the level of the Bengals’ Leon Hall and Terrence Newman, but they’ve both made momentous leaps to turn the secondary into a strength.

Both fronts could use some work, as they’re the worst two teams in the leagues against the run according to Football Outsiders.

Pagano said this week, “it feels like we play them twice a year, every year,” which was interesting considering he had only faced the Bengals once since taking over the Colts. And it was one he would like to forget, as Cincinnati railroaded Indianapolis 42-28 as 7-point favorites last December.

Dalton won’t have his two leading receivers from that victory, however, as both A.J. Green and Marvin Jones are out with injury. That’s not an insignificant drawback with top targets T.Y. Hilton and Reggie Wayne, who are both in the top 15 of receptions and receiving yards, available for Luck.

Injuries are one factor oddsmakers can’t predict, but they’ve gotten almost everything else right on the Bengals and Colts.

Check below for all of this week’s picks, listed in order of sports book rotation numbers.

 

Case Keefer (2012 champion, 2013 co-champion)

2014 Record: 21-15 (3-3 last week)

Redskins minus-5.5 vs. Titans

Jaguars plus-5.5 vs. Browns

Chiefs plus-4 at Chargers

Giants plus-6.5 at Cowboys

Raiders plus-3.5 vs. Cardinals

Steelers minus-3 vs. Texans

 

Ray Brewer (2013 co-champion)

2014 Record: 21-15 (4-2 last week)

Colts minus-3 vs. Bengals

Rams plus-7 vs. Seahawks

Chargers minus-4 vs. Chiefs

Cardinals minus-3.5 at Raiders

Panthers plus-7 at Packers

Steelers minus-3 vs. Texans

 

Taylor Bern

2014 Record: 19-15-2 (4-1-1 last week)

Titans plus-5.5 at Redskins

Falcons plus-6.5 at Ravens

Colts minus-3 vs. Bengals

Saints plus-2.5 at Lions

Chiefs plus-4 at Chargers

Giants plus-6.5 at Cowboys

Case Keefer can be reached at 948-2790 or [email protected]. Follow Case on Twitter at twitter.com/casekeefer.