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March 28, 2024

College football by the odds: Vegas picks and preview of week 11

Superbook Posts Bets For Super Bowl XLVIII

Steve Marcus

A gambler places a bet on Super Bowl XLVIII at the Las Vegas Hotel Superbook Thursday Jan. 23, 2014.

Talking Points college bet of the week

Talking Points NFL bet of the week

The busiest fourth of the sports-betting year is already nearing its end.

The college football season always seems to depart as soon as it arrives, and this year was no exception. Four weekends, including this Saturday’s slate of games, remain with a full schedule of college football before conference championships, and ultimately, bowls begin.

What’s lost in mass, however, is made up for in significance. No teams with national championship aspirations can afford to lose this late into the season, though many will.

There are pitfalls aplenty for the separated group of contenders over the next month starting Saturday with a considerable six games between teams ranked in the top 25 of the college football playoff rankings. The average betting line on those games is only minus-5.5.

Oregon’s trip to Utah is the only one of those meetings with a point spread of more than a touchdown, as the Ducks are laying as low as 8.5 points to the Utes.

No. 4 Oregon would appear to be the only team currently in the playoff at risk this week. No. 1 Mississippi State, No. 2 Florida State and No. 3 Auburn are all favored by at least 20 points against overmatched opponents.

But the top three’s reckoning is approaching soon enough. They could, in fact, conceivably all come into next week’s games as underdogs.

Mississippi State is almost certain to take points in its trip to Alabama next Saturday. Florida State and Auburn currently project as slight favorites over Miami and Georgia, respectively, but it’s small enough that the lines could adjust.

Talking Points will be analyzing all of those games from a betting perspective and offering a pick. Looking at the 10 biggest games weekly, I’ve gone 56-42-4 against the spread this season after an 8-2 record last week.

That far eclipses my goal of anything above 50 percent, given the inherent unprofitability of forcing a pick on every game, and a strong finish could set a career-high.

Check out this week’s college football by the odds entry below.

    • Baylor's Antwan Goodley (5) carries the ball past West Virginia's Terrell Chestnut (16) for a touchdown during the second quarter of an NCAA college football game in Morgantown, W.Va., Saturday, Oct. 18, 2014. (AP Photo/Chris Jackson)

      Baylor plus-5.5 at Oklahoma, over/under: 73.5; 9 a.m., ESPN

      With preseason future odds implying around a 70 percent chance that the Big 12 champion would be either Baylor or Oklahoma, this matchup shaped up as a huge favorite to be the conference’s biggest game of the year.

      The odds would have been even more astronomical on Baylor’s trip to Oklahoma relegated to secondary status in the Midwest Saturday, but that’s what happened with Big 12 leading Kansas State landing primetime treatment for its trip to TCU. Everything has changed — including the betting line.

      Oklahoma posted as an 11-point favorite against Baylor in the Golden Nugget Games of the Year lines over the summer. The Sooners re-opened at minus-3.5 this week before getting bet to 6 to trigger recent buyback on the Bears.

      It’s a curious switch as neither of these teams has wildly deviated from their projections. Oklahoma has two losses, but they came by a total of five points. Baylor’s offense has kept chugging with quarterback Bryce Petty and running back Shock Linwood, accounting for 60 points or more in half of its games this season.

      Pick: Oklahoma minus-5.5 Getting the better team at a discount? Sign me up.

    • Iowa defensive back John Lowdermilk , left, celebrates an interception against Purdue with teammates Bo Bower, center, and Louis Trinca-Pasat during the second half of an NCAA college football game in West Lafayette, Ind., Saturday, Sept. 27, 2014. Purdue defeated Iowa 24-10. (AP Photo/Michael Conroy)

      Iowa minus-1 at Minnesota, over/under: 45; 9 a.m., ESPN2

      It’s not too early to pan the Big Ten’s re-alignment efforts.

      With the conference’s two best teams, Ohio State and Michigan State, stuck in the same East division for the first time this season, the Big Ten championship game projects as a mismatch because of the West’s mediocrity. It’s good news for Saturday morning’s Floyd of Rosedale, however, as the rivalry is suddenly more meaningful than it’s been in a decade.

      Nebraska currently leads the West but both Iowa and Minnesota are a half-game back and still on the schedule. The Hawkeyes and Golden Gophers present similar challenges — middling offenses to go with decent defenses.

      At 5.4 and 5.2 yards per play, respectively, neither Minnesota nor Iowa are in the top half of the nation offensively. They’ve gotten to shaky 6-2 straight-up, 4-4 against the spread records by getting stops when necessary.

      It will be a showcase of senior linebackers as Minnesota’s Damien Wilson and Iowa’s Quinton Alston have emerged as two of the surest tacklers in the Big Ten.

      Pick: Minnesota plus-1 A nice spot for the Gophers, coming off of a bye week at home against an evenly matched rival.

    • North Carolina States Jacoby Brissett looks to hand off the ball in the first quarter of an NCAA college football game against Syracuse in Syracuse, N.Y., Saturday, Nov. 1, 2014. (AP Photo/Nick Lisi)

      Georgia Tech minus-3.5 at North Carolina State, over/under: 60.5; 9:30 a.m., ESPN3

      North Carolina State recorded eight sacks in last week’s 24-17 win at Syracuse as 3-point underdogs, the most in an ACC game in a decade. Georgia Tech has twice thrown the ball eight times or less this season, among the least in the nation.

      Wolfpack defensive ends Mike Rose and Art Norman showed they could pass-rush with three sacks apiece, but now it’s time to find out if they can play contain against the Yellow Jackets’ vaunted triple option. No other team has done a very commendable job, as Georgia Tech boasts the second most efficient offense in the nation according to Football Outsiders’ F/+ ratings.

      Seniors Zach Laskey and Synjn Days have continued Georgia Tech’s tradition of standout running backs, but the real difference in the offense this season has been sophomore quarterback Justin Thomas’ ability to throw downfield when needed. Although Thomas is completing only 48 percent of his passes, he has 14 touchdowns to four interceptions and a top-5 ranked 9.7 yards per attempt.

      Both teams are quietly peaking with covers in each of their last two games to make this a suddenly pivotal matchup for Georgia Tech trying to catch up in the ACC Coastal division.

      Pick: Over 60 points Struggled picking Georgia Tech games this season, so I’ll try something new with a total.

    • Arizona State's Jaelen Strong, left, makes a touchdown catch as Utah's Dominique Hatfield (15) defends in the first half of an NCAA college football game on Saturday, Nov. 1, 2014, in Tempe, Ariz. (Photo/Ross D. Franklin)

      Notre Dame plus-2.5 at Arizona State, over/under: 60; 12:30 p.m., ABC

      Notre Dame and Arizona State are fortunate to hang in the conversation for college football’s inaugural playoff as the final two teams in this week’s top 10.

      Heck, both teams were lucky to get out of last week unscathed. In what are now being referred to as look-ahead spots to Saturday’s big game, Notre Dame and Arizona State struggled and failed to cover against Navy and Utah, respectively.

      The Utes took the Sundevils into overtime as a 6.5-point underdog before succumbing 19-16. Notre Dame had the poorer performance, getting into a slugfest with Navy and never pulling away in a 49-39 win as a 14-point favorite.

      The hits kept coming for the Irish as they lost leading tackler Joe Schmidt to an ankle injury against the Midshipmen. He added to a long injury report, an obstacle not in the way of Arizona State.

      The Notre Dame showdown will be the third game back for quarterback Taylor Kelly, who figures to look often for star receiver Jaelen Strong with the Irish ranking 16th in the nation against the run according to Football Outsiders. Kelly went for 362 passing yards, nearly half of it to Strong, in last season’s 37-34 loss to Notre Dame as 6.5-point favorites at AT&T Stadium.

      Pick: Arizona State minus-2.5 Anyone else concerned that Notre Dame’s best performance this season came in a loss? Not sure Irish are on Sundevils’ level.

    • Florida State's DeMarcus Walker (44) rushes North Carolina State quarterback Jacoby Brissett (12) during the first half of an NCAA college football game in Raleigh, N.C., Saturday, Sept. 27, 2014. (AP Photo/Gerry Broome)

      Virginia plus-19.5 at Florida State, over/under: 55.5; 3:30 p.m., ESPN

      Saturday will bring sandwich or feast for Florida State.

      The popular narrative bred out of Florida State’s 42-31 dismantling of Louisville’s top-rated defense last week as 3.5-point favorites is that the Seminoles are back. After slogging their way to a 1-6 start against the spread, they finally played like the team that won the national championship last season in the second half at Louisville.

      The betting market is clearly on board, as the Seminoles opened as low as minus-17.5 this weekend before rising to as high as minus-20.5. If they’ve truly returned, walloping a Virginia team that hasn’t covered in five straight games shouldn’t be an issue.

      The Cavaliers’ latest setback was their biggest loss yet, a 35-10 fall at Georgia Tech as 4-point underdogs. Players insist they haven’t quit on embattled head coach Mike London, but that’s always a tricky scenario to handicap.

      Florida State finds itself in an unenviable situation of its own having to face lowly Virginia in a “sandwich spot” between Louisville and Miami, perhaps its two biggest ACC games of the year. CG Technologies sports books currently list Florida State as a 1-point favorite at Miami next week

      Some of the money keeping the Virginia at Florida State action relatively even is certainly coming from situational bettors taking the visitors.

      Pick: Florida State minus-19.5 No desire to be involved in this game at all, but feel like the number could at least be three touchdowns.

    • Arizona linebacker Scooby Wright III (33) attempts the tackle of UCLA running back Paul Perkins (24) during the first half of an NCAA college football game, Saturday, Nov. 1, 2014, in Pasadena, Calif. (AP Photo/Gus Ruelas)

      UCLA minus-6.5 at Washington, over/under: 55; 4 p.m., Fox Sports 1

      Teams routinely distance themselves from outside expectations going into the season for a reason: Falling short hurts.

      UCLA and Washington can attest to as much. Bringing back nine starters on offense including quarterback Brett Hundley, UCLA was a popular national championship pick in getting bet down to 10-to-1.

      With an experienced troop of its own to go with new coach Chris Petersen, Washington became a trendy sleeper to win the Pac-12 at 12-to-1 odds.

      It’s safe to say neither of those titles will come to fruition. The Bruins have gone a disappointing 7-2 straight-up, 2-7 against the spread to see their odds rise to 100-to-1 to win the national championship.

      Washington, meanwhile, is three games back in the Pac-12 North division alone. The Huskies are slightly better cashing tickets at 4-5 against the spread but they’ve been offensively challenged with converted linebacker Shaq Thompson at running back their only consistent threat.

      UCLA’s offense seems to have come alive right as the defense degraded as it had allowed at least 30 points in four straight games before last week’s 17-7 win over Arizona as 6.5-point favorites.

      Pick: Washington plus-6.5 Seattle is not an easy place to play this time of year.

    • Kansas State offensive lineman BJ Finney (66) blocks for running back DeMarcus Robinson (20) during the first half of an NCAA college football game against Texas in Manhattan, Kan., Saturday, Oct. 25, 2014. (AP Photo/Orlin Wagner)

      Kansas State plus-6 at TCU, over/under: 60.5; 4:30 p.m., FOX

      TCU raised several spots in this week’s polls despite coming off of its worst outing of the season — at least by Las Vegas standards.

      The Horned Frogs failed to cover the spread for the first time in 2014 last Saturday when they won 31-30 at West Virginia as 3.5-point favorites. A loss this weekend, and they’ll have to surrender their fictional belt as the best point spread team in the nation to the visitor’s sideline.

      Kansas State has covered in six straight contests, including by at least two touchdowns in each of the last four. Much is made of TCU’s core of weapons, but Kansas State receivers Tyler Lockett and Curry Sexton have proven two of the best in the Big 12. They’re tied for third in the conference at 6.1 receptions per game.

      The winner of this game will take the top spot in the Big 12 with an inside track to the college football playoff. Sports books are braced, as they’re two of the top eight teams in odds to win the national championship with TCU at 8-to-1 and Kansas State at 12-to-1.

      Pick: TCU minus-6 Hate betting against Kansas State coach Bill Snyder under any scenario, but talent-wise, this is a mismatch bigger than a touchdown in TCU’s favor.

    •  In this Aug. 30, 2014, file photo, Ohio State running back Ezekiel Elliott, left, runs past Navy safety Parrish Gaines (2) and linebacker Chris Johnson (46) for a touchdown in the second half of an NCAA college football game in Baltimore. After a 34-17 victory over Navy in the opener, coach Urban Meyer is pleased with the job done by Elliott, who gained 44 yards on 12 carries including this 10-yard touchdown run.

      Ohio State plus-3.5 at Michigan State, over/under: 3.5; 5 p.m., ABC

      Ohio State hasn’t lost a game as an underdog in three years.

      Granted, the Buckeyes have only taken points on two occasions in that span but their underdog prowess stretches further back. In the last five years, Ohio State has been an underdog 11 times.

      The Buckeyes have gone 9-2 against the spread, 7-4 straight-up in those contests. One of its last victories with the “plus” attached on the betting board came in 2012 when Ohio State edged Michigan State 17-16 as a 2.5-point favorite.

      Michigan State scored its revenge last season by beating Ohio State 34-24 in the Big Ten Championship Game as a 5.5-point underdog. It was the third straight, and fourth time in five years that the underdog won outright in the series.

      Michigan State quarterback Connor Cook went for 304 passing yards in the victory, which was a career high that he’s since eclipsed two times this season. He hasn’t seen a secondary as strong as Ohio State’s, though.

      The Buckeyes rate fourth in the nation against the pass, according to Football Outsiders, with a star-laden young defensive backfield including sophomore safeties Tyvis Powell and Vonn Bell and freshman cornerback Eli Apple.

      Pick: Ohio State plus-3.5 No real upset here; Buckeyes are the better team.

    • LSU running back Leonard Fournette (7) carries in the first half of an NCAA college football game against Mississippi in Baton Rouge, La., Saturday, Oct. 25, 2014. (AP Photo/Jonathan Bachman)

      Alabama minus-6.5 at LSU, over/under: 47; 5 p.m., CBS

      The team Las Vegas considers the best in the nation remains on the outside of the projected four-team college football playoff.

      Alabama would still be favored over any team in the country on a neutral field. But perhaps the Crimson Tide just need to focus on covering on any field other than their own in Tuscaloosa, Ala.

      Alabama is 0-4 against the spread away from Bryant-Denny Stadium this season. The Crimson Tide have also failed to cover in two of three trips to Baton Rouge, La., under coach Nick Saban.

      The Tigers have defended their home field as strongly as usual this season with a 5-1 straight-up and against the spread record. A lifeless offense finally showed signs of recovery in back-to-back home victories over Kentucky and Ole Miss with three-headed running back tandem Leonard Fournette, Terrence Magee and Kenny Hilliard going for nearly 500 yards combined.

      Alabama is a team entirely without weaknesses. The Crimson Tide are first in the nation in defense, per Football Outsiders’ S&P ratings, and fourth in offense. They’re one complete road performance away from a flawless résumé.

      Pick: LSU plus-6.5 Ole Miss, a team that beat Alabama and remains not far behind in power ratings, got an entire field goal less on the betting line at LSU two weeks ago and lost. The number is too high.

    • Utah defensive end Hunter Dimick (49) rushes UCLA quarterback Brett Hundley, left, in the second half during an NCAA college football game Thursday, Oct. 3, 2013, in Salt Lake City.   (AP Photo/Rick Bowmer)

      Oregon minus-8.5 at Utah, over/under: 60.5; 7 p.m., ESPN

      If the Ducks keep at their current pace, they’ll have sports book directors across the valley screaming a rhyming word in no time.

      Oregon has covered in four straight to reaffirm the betting public’s trust after an early October loss to Arizona as 21-point favorites capped a 1-4 against the spread start to waver support. Now the weekly swarm of Oregon money is back in full force.

      Although it’s getting the bulk of tickets this week, sports books can at least rest easy knowing they aren’t totally one-sided on Oregon. Big bets came in on Utah upon the line opening at minus-9.5 or 10 to drag the number down.

      Perhaps the public should be paying more attention to Utah, which has also covered four straight but sits at 7-1 against the spread for the season as opposed to Oregon’s 5-4. Utah defensive ends Nate Orchard and Hunter Dimick may not join Oregon quarterback Marcus Mariota at the Heisman ceremony next month, but they’ve been just as electrifying.

      They’ve combined for 21 of Utah’s 39 sacks, which leads the nation.

      Pick: Under 60.5 points Ending with a tough one as neither side sounds too appetizing to me, so I’ll look for Utah defense to extend streak of six straight games without going over.

    Case Keefer can be reached at 948-2790 or [email protected]. Follow Case on Twitter at twitter.com/casekeefer.

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