Las Vegas Sun

March 28, 2024

Week 11 NFL picks and game of the week for the Sun’s handicapping contest

Two of the top five teams in Super Bowl future odds play out of a bye week

Brady yells

ASSOCIATED PRESS

New England Patriots quarterback Tom Brady (12) shouts as he takes the field at Gillette Stadium before an NFL football game against the Denver Broncos on Sunday, Nov. 2, 2014, in Foxborough, Mass

Consider this week’s Sunday Night Football matchup a torch-passing affair for Las Vegas sports books.

Week 11: Patriots at Colts

Which side would you take in the Sun's handicapping game of the week? (Majority Poll Opinion: 6-5 this season)
Patriots plus-3 — 67.8%
Colts minus-3 — 32.2%

This poll is closed, see Full Results »

Note: This is not a scientific poll. The results reflect only the opinions of those who chose to participate.

The 21st century’s most bet-on franchise, the New England Patriots, travels to take on the team destined to inherit the role into the next decade, the Indianapolis Colts.

It sets up almost eerily perfect for a rite of passage with Indianapolis perching as a 3-point favorite — implying the two teams are seen as dead-even and would play in a pick’em on a neutral field.

The marquee matchup of week 11 comes in as the game of the week in the Sun’s handicapping contest with all three contestants using one of their six picks against the spread, available at the bottom of the page, on the affair.

New England and Indianapolis haven’t become the standard in teams that get the most action by any fluke; it’s not their fan bases or team colors. They’ve done it because they consistently produce golden performances.

Since 2000, cooperatively the year coach Bill Belichick took over and drafted quarterback Tom Brady, New England is an NFL-best 130-90-7 against the spread. Indianapolis has covered at an even higher percentage since its heart and soul, coach Chuck Pagano and quarterback Andrew Luck, arrived in 2012 at 28-15-1 against the spread.

Both gambling godsends are in the middle of an ascent since the beginning of October that’s put them in the top five most likely Super Bowl champions according to the future odds at the Westgate Las Vegas Superbook.

The Colts are down to 10-to-1 to win the Super Bowl since going 4-1 straight-up and against the spread in the span. The Patriots are 5-to-1 with a 5-0 straight-up, 4-1 against the spread record since the start of last month.

In addition to the extra straight-up victory, there’s more evidence that New England is the slightly hotter team. The Patriots have covered the spread by an average of 23 points during the run as compared to the Colts’ mean margin of 11.25 points.

New England’s 43-21 victory over Denver as 3-point underdogs in their last game before heading to a bye — Indianapolis is also rested after beating the New York Giants 40-24 as 3-point favorites two weeks — put its point differential at plus-83, the second best in the NFL.

It’s fresh in bettors’ minds as New England is currently garnering about two in every three tickets printed for the Indianapolis game. Belichick and Brady have solved the Colts’ puzzle before.

Pagano and Luck have only lost against the spread by double-digits in seven games together. Two of them came against the Patriots, which abolished the Colts 43-22 as 7.5-point favorites in last year’s playoffs after pounding them 59-24 as 10-point favorites in 2012.

Luck’s lone weakness for turnovers showed in both of the losses, as he threw for seven interceptions to four touchdowns in the pair of games against the Patriots. The 25-year-old Stanford graduate has raised his game in 2014, leading the NFL with 3,085 passing yards, but it’s still a nagging problem.

He’s only seventh in passer rating because of nine interceptions, or one per game. Brady rates two spots ahead of Luck because, despite being behind by more than 700 yards, the 37-year-old has 22 touchdowns to three interceptions.

Adding marvel to Brady’s awareness this season is the fact that he threw two of the interceptions in the same game, a career-low 41-14 blowout loss to the Chiefs in week 4 as a 3-point favorite. Since then, Brady’s only given the ball away once in 197 attempts.

Some of the credit must go to his receiving options. It’s not one of those years, as feared, where Brady is left with little to work with.

Tight end Rob Gronkowski is back to full health, and the results have shown with averages of seven catches, 100 yards and a touchdown per game since the Kansas City loss. Free-agent acquisition Brandon LaFell has already tied his career-high with five touchdowns.

Shane Vereen ranks among the best pass-catchers out of the backfield. Julian Edelman remains highly reliable, sitting at ninth in the NFL among wide receivers with 54 catches.

One of the only players ahead of Edelman is Luck’s favorite target, T.Y Hilton, with 56 receptions. Hilton is also third in the league with 937 receiving yards.

There’s some concern of Hilton getting stuck on “Revis Island” with veteran Pro-Bowler Darrelle Revis, but the Patriots’ defense has actually regressed in recent weeks. Undoubtedly affected by the injuries to leading linebacker Jerod Mayo and top pass rusher Chandler Jones, New England has fallen to 17th in the NFL at giving up 5.4 yards per play.

Indianapolis wouldn’t have come in as the favorite against New England at any point of the previous two seasons, but its defense is part of the reason for the newfound respect from oddsmakers. While the Patriots have slipped to No. 22 in Football Outsiders’ defensive DVOA, the Colts are up to No. 18.

Going from dreadful to average is a major swing especially with players like cornerback Vontae Davis and linebacker D’Qwell Jackson turning in career years to give the Colts’ strength at particular spots.

New England is drawing most of the bets now, but it’s worth noting that the big early money came in the other way. Indianapolis opened at minus-2.5 Sunday, but professional bettors upped it to a full field goal.

For now, there’s never going to be a shortage of cash on either side.

Check below for the full list of week 11 picks with games listed in order of their sports book rotation number.

 

Taylor Bern

Record: 34-24-2 (4-2 last week)

Bears minus-3 vs. Vikings

Eagles plus-6 at Packers

Seahawks plus-2 at Chiefs

Bengals plus-7 at Saints

Lions plus-1 at Cardinals

Patriots plus-3 at Colts

 

Ray Brewer (2013 co-champion)

Record: 34-26 (3-3 last week)

Texans vs. Browns over 41

Eagles plus-6 at Packers

Chiefs minus-2 vs. Seahawks

Giants plus-4 vs. 49ers

Lions plus-1 at Cardinals

Patriots plus-3 at Colts

 

Case Keefer (2012 champion, 2013 co-champion)

2014 Record: 33-27 (2-4 last week)

Texans plus-3.5 at Browns

Eagles plus-6 at Packers

Seahawks plus-2 at Chiefs

Giants plus-4 vs. 49ers

Lions plus-1 at Cardinals

Colts minus-3 vs. Patriots

Case Keefer can be reached at 948-2790 or [email protected]. Follow Case on Twitter at twitter.com/casekeefer.

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