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March 28, 2024

College football by the odds: Vegas picks and preview of week 13

Arizona

AP Photo/Steve Dykes

Arizona quarterback Anu Solomon (12) shakes hands with Oregon Ducks quarterback Marcus Mariota (8) after the NCAA college football game at Autzen Stadium on Thursday, Oct. 2, 2014, in Eugene, Ore. Arizona won the game 31-24.

It’s finally a showcase Saturday for the Pac-12.

Talking Points college bet of the week

Talking Points NFL bet of the week

College football’s week 13 isn’t as loaded with major matchups as the last few or upcoming couple weekends. There are only two games between teams ranked in the top 20 of the college football playoff rankings, and both are in the Pac-12.

They also both have spreads hovering just above field goal, as UCLA gives four points to USC in the can’t-miss contest of the week and Utah lays 4.5 against Arizona in an equally significant affair.

That accounts for four of the five teams still alive in the race for the Pac-12 South division title. Oregon has locked up the other side, and gets a chance to build its résumé for the playoff’s top seed with a fortuitous home matchup against Colorado where the Ducks are a 32-point favorite.

Two of the three other Pac 12 games on Saturday also feature a point spread of less than a touchdown with Stanford at minus-5.5 taking on California and Washington a 6.5-point favorite over Oregon State.

All together, it feels like a west coast rally. And it’s about time.

Oddsmakers’ power ratings and any metric available have placed the Pac-12 jockeying with the Big 12 for the second-best conference behind the SEC all year. It just hasn’t felt like the Pac-12’s overall acclaim has reached the level of its rival leagues.

That’s a shame because the Pac-12 has left behind its previously underachieving ways in the last couple years. Perhaps this is the week where the conference can show the nation its growth.

Talking Points is picking three Pac-12 games as part of the college football by the odds column, which analyzes and selects a side in the 10 biggest contests stretching across all five major conferences every week. Another 6-4 tally last week has the season record at 66-52-2.

Because I’m forcing a pick on every big game with no option to pass, I’m beyond thrilled with that record and hope we can keep pace all the way to the end of bowl season.

Check below for the week 13 preview and picks.

    • Nebraska quarterback Tommy Armstrong Jr. reaches back to pass during the first half of an NCAA college football game against Wisconsin Saturday, Nov. 15, 2014, in Madison, Wis. (AP Photo/Morry Gash)

      Minnesota plus-10 at Nebraska, over/under: 56.5; 9 a.m., ESPN

      The Nebraska money well has dried, leaving bettors to abandon the once fruitful arrangement.

      The Cornhuskers were on a five-game covering streak before losing against the spread in each of their last three outings, culminating in the 59-24 beating at the hands of Wisconsin as 4.5-point underdogs last week. Gamblers have officially begun to look elsewhere for value, as Minnesota is drawing the bulk of the action in this spot.

      Minnesota had a more respectable performance against a team projected for the Big Ten Championship Game last week as it hung with Ohio State in a 31-24 loss as 14-point underdogs. The cover improved the Gophers against the spread record to 6-4, tied with Nebraska.

      They’ll need to exorcise some demons at Memorial Stadium, where they haven’t won since 1960. That was the last time Minnesota had a win in the series before last year’s 34-23 upset win getting 10 points at home.

      Pick: Nebraska minus-10 No way Bo Pelini doesn’t have his defense over-prepared for Minnesota’s David Cobb after it gave up 408 yards to Melvin Gordon last week. Now healthier, Nebraska’s Ameer Abdullah has a better chance to put on a Gordon impersonation at home.

    • Marshall's Rakeem Cato (12) runs the ball during an NCAA football game against Rice in Huntington, W.Va., Saturday, Nov. 15, 2014. (AP Photo/Chris Tilley)

      Marshall minus-20 at UAB, over/under: 68; 9 a.m., College Sports Live

      It’s one thing to ignore one of two remaining unbeaten teams in the nation. It’s quite another to disregard a team tied for the best against the spread record in the nation.

      Anyone who has written off Marshall as a team not worth paying attention to has cost themselves money this season. The Thundering Herd, 10-0 straight-up, are one of five teams in the nation with an 8-2 against the spread record — tied with TCU, Arkansas, Utah and Louisiana Tech as college football’s best bet.

      Senior quarterback Rakeem Cato is still building on his record of 42 straight games with a touchdown pass. Marshall leads the nation with 7.7 yards per play, with the defense also ranking in the top 10 at surrendering just 4.3.

      The reasonable issue for doubting the Thundering Herd is their schedule. They just beat their first opponent with a winning record, Rice, last week in a 41-14 victory as 21-point favorites. It’s a problem when exceptionally mediocre UAB (5-5 straight-up and against the spread) is the second toughest game on the schedule by the point spread.

      The only tighter line came at Akron when Marshall won 48-17 as a 10.5-point favorite early in the season.

      Pick: UAB plus-20 Marshall or not, I’m not in the business of giving three touchdowns on the road against anything more than a totally helpless case.

    • Louisville wide receiver DeVante Parker (9) is tackled by Boston College defensive backs Justin Simmons (27) and Ty-Meer Brown (5) during the first quarter of their NCAA college football game on the Boston College campus Saturday, Nov. 8, 2014 in Boston. (AP Photo/Stephan Savoia)

      Louisville plus-3.5 at Notre Dame, over/under: 53.5; 12:30 p.m., NBC

      By now, an entertaining postseason invitational tournament could be arranged for teams that should have or could have beaten defending national champions Florida State.

      Let Louisville vs. Notre Dame serve as the game for the top seed. The Cardinals and the Irish have endured similar seasons with both at 7-3 straight-up — though Louisville is one game better against the spread at 6-4 to Notre Dame’s 5-5 — that could have been totally made over with some small strokes of luck against the Seminoles.

      Notre Dame infamously lost in Tallahassee, Fla., 31-27 as 9.5-point underdogs when an offensive pass interference call went against it to wipe away a game-winning touchdown. Louisville fell 42-31 at home to Florida State as 3.5-point underdogs after holding a 24-7 lead in the third quarter.

      They both threatened the Seminoles with their units of strength that will face off here — the Irish’s offense against the Cardinals’ defense.

      Notre Dame quarterback Everett Golson ranks seventh in the nation with 27 touchdown passes, 13 of which have gone to sophomore receiver William Fuller. Louisville’s defense is giving up only 4.2 yards per play and laced with stars including sophomore Gerod Holliman who’s first in the nation with 13 interceptions.

      Pick: Louisville plus-3.5 Defense over offense here.

    • Mississippi defensive back Senquez Golson (21) tackles Auburn wide receiver Quan Bray (4) during the second half of an NCAA college football game Saturday, Nov. 1, 2014, in Oxford, Miss. (AP Photo/Brynn Anderson)

      Ole Miss minus-3 at Arkansas, over/under: 45; 12:30 p.m., CBS

      Arkansas runs better than it passes; Ole Miss passes better than it runs.

      Fittingly, the Razorbacks’ defense isn’t as stout against the pass. The Rebels’ defense struggles more against the run.

      In perhaps the most intriguing stylistic matchup of week 13, both SEC West foes come in thinking they can exploit the other. Arkansas is riding high off of its first SEC win in 18 tries, a 17-0 shutout of LSU as a 1-point favorite, with running backs Jonathan Williams and Alex Collins combining to rush for more than 1,800 yards this season.

      Ole Miss had a bye week to muse its current 1-2 straight-up, 0-3 against the spread streak. It will come back seeking a third straight win over Arkansas, as senior quarterback Bo Wallace has thrown Ole Miss to victory in two straight years with nearly 700 combined passing yards.

      The betting market looks content to stick with the home team that’s covered in three straight, as Arkansas has gotten bet down at a handful of sports books after opening as a 3.5-point favorite.

      Pick: Ole Miss minus-3 Put simply: The Rebels are one of the best teams in the nation; the Razorbacks are not.

    • Arizona running back Nick Wilson (28) breaks away from Colorado defensive back Terrel Smith (41) and linebacker Brady Daigh (43) during the second half of an NCAA college football game, Saturday, Nov. 8, 2014, in Tucson, Ariz. (AP Photo/Rick Scuteri)

      Arizona plus-4.5 at Utah, over/under: 54; 12:30 p.m., ESPN

      For all the love lobbed in the direction of the SEC West, the Pac-12 South deserves some plaudits of its own as a rugged set of teams.

      Utah is having one of its best seasons in recent memory with the nation’s top against the spread record at 8-2 to go with its 7-3 straight-up, yet has virtually no chance of getting to the Pac-12 Championship Game. The Utes currently sit fifth out of six in the division.

      USC, UCLA, Arizona State and Arizona are all bunched at the top, making a loss catastrophic to the hopes of any of those programs. The betting line would imply the Wildcats are the most likely loser this weekend.

      They’ve certainly regressed since upsetting Oregon 31-24 as 21.5-point underdogs at the beginning of October, going 3-2 straight-up and 1-4 against the spread. Their offense has fallen to 47th in the nation at 5.7 yards per play.

      Utah’s only poor performance in that span, coincidentally, came in a 51-27 loss to Oregon as a 9.5-point underdog two weeks ago. The Utes have covered in all five of their other games since October.

      Pick: Arizona plus-4.5 Rich Rodriguez will have his team prepared in a must-win game.

    • Wisconsin's Melvin Gordon during the first half of an NCAA college football game against Nebraska Saturday, Nov. 15, 2014, in Madison, Wis. (AP Photo/Morry Gash)

      Wisconsin minus-10 at Iowa, over/under: 51.5; 12:30 p.m., ABC

      Reverberations from Melvin Gordon’s record-breaking 408 rushing yards in last week’s win against Nebraska were felt at the sports book.

      Although Wisconsin is an extreme long shot to make the college football playoff having already suffered two losses, its odds to win the national title dropped from 500- to 100-to-1 at the Westgate Las Vegas Superbook. Nevada gaming laws don’t allow bets on individual awards, but offshore, Gordon went down to the second choice to win the Heisman at 9-to-4 behind only Oregon quarterback Marcus Mariota.

      Gordon, a Wisconsin native, was once committed to Iowa. The Hawkeyes could use him.

      Iowa is wasting an operative defense this season with a totally ineffective offense. For an illustration of its futility, consider that the Hawkeyes’ passing game with quarterback Jake Rudock averages 7.1 yards per attempt.

      Gordon gains more than that per carry at 7.5 yards.

      Pick: Iowa plus-10 Time to fade a team drawing 80 percent of the action despite an inflated spread.

    • California quarterback Jared Goff, left, tries to pass under pressure from Southern California defensive tackle Antwaun Woods during the first half of an NCAA college football game, Thursday, Nov. 13, 2014, in Los Angeles. (AP Photo/Mark J. Terrill)

      Stanford minus-5 at California, over/under: 56; 1 p.m., Fox Sports 1

      The Big Game actually feels, well, big again this year.

      The winner of this heated Northern California rivalry becomes bowl eligible on Saturday. The Cardinal’s program had seemingly pulled ahead of the Bears’ in recent years with Stanford winning four straight in the series by an average of 35 points.

      While Stanford is looking to save face and get to the postseason for a sixth consecutive year, California wants to break a streak of three straight seasons without a bowl appearance. The point spread is less than a touchdown for only the second time in the last nine years.

      California has clawed its way back to respectability with a ferocious offense behind quarterback Jared Goff, who has thrown for nearly 3,400 yards and 30 touchdowns to four interceptions. Stanford has fallen back because of an offense that hasn’t put up much of a fight.

      The defense is the only reason it stands any chance to reach the postseason at giving up just 4.1 yards per play, ranking third in the nation.

      Pick: Stanford minus-5 Haven’t seen a single person pick Stanford, so allow me to be the first.

    • Missouri running back Russell Hansbrough (32) rushes 45 yards for a touchdown against Texas A&M during the second half of an NCAA college football game Saturday, Nov. 15, 2014, in College Station, Texas. (AP Photo/David J. Phillip)

      Missouri plus-3.5 at Tennessee, over/under: 49; 4:30 p.m., ESPN

      Tennessee is one of the last hopes at preventing one of the four major conference championship games from winding up with a betting line of more than two touchdowns.

      Missouri currently leads the SEC East, but needs to beat both Tennessee and Arkansas the next two weeks to reach the league’s championship game. If the Tigers pull it off, they project as a heavy underdog against Alabama or whichever team comes out of the West side.

      That being said, Missouri appears to have improved drastically since losing to Indiana as a 14-point favorite and getting smashed by Georgia, the East’s second-place team, 34-0 in a two-week span early in the season. The Tigers are 4-0 straight-up, 3-1 against the spread since with a refined strategy.

      Missouri bleeds the clock on offense with a rush-first attack featuring junior Russell Hansbrough, who averages nearly six yards per carry. It needs no such gimmicks defensively as linebacker Michael Scherer and defensive end lead a unit that’s eighth in the nation at allowing 4.3 yards per play.

      Tennessee is also on a two-game winning, three-game covering streak, though its now playing without two top defensive players. Linebacker A.J. Johnson and cornerback Michael Williams are suspended pending a rape investigation.

      Pick: Tennessee minus-3.5 Tigers keep defying expectations, but asking them to win back-to-back games on the road feels like a lot to ask.

    • Baylor place kicker Spencer Evans (39) kicks during an NCAA college football game between Baylor and Oklahoma in Norman, Okla., Saturday, Nov. 8, 2014. Baylor won 48-14. (AP Photo/Sue Ogrocki)

      Oklahoma State plus-30 at Baylor, over/under: 68; 4:30 p.m., FOX

      Hereby nominating Oklahoma State for inclusion among any list chronicling the most disappointing teams in college football.

      Not just recorded in the middle, either, but straight towards the top. Consider that the Cowboys have lost five straight against the spread, not covering by a ghastly average of 19.5 points per game.

      It was an expected down year, but not to this magnitude. A program that’s made it to double-digit wins in three of the past four wins now won’t as much as advance to a bowl game unless it pulls off a massive upset on the road against Baylor or Oklahoma.

      The Cowboys have undoubtedly endured rough breaks. They lost starting quarterback J.W. Walsh for the season in the second game of the year, and now backup Daxx Garman looks out with a concussion this week.

      Oklahoma State will likely have to break the redshirt of true freshman Mason Rudolph against Baylor, which has incentive to run up the score in needing to impress the playoff selection committee.

      The Bears may wind up more disappointed than the Cowboys at season’s end if they win their last three games to emerge as Big 12 champions and still get left out of the tournament. At 7-2 against the spread, Baylor has already notched its fourth straight profitable season against the spread.

      Pick: Oklahoma State plus-30 Would rather bet on a cockroach race than this game, but perhaps the Bears are kind enough to leave open the backdoor.

    • Southern California coach Steve Sarkisian claps during the second half of an NCAA college football game against California, Thursday, Nov. 13, 2014, in Los Angeles. USC won 38-30. (AP Photo/Mark J. Terrill)

      USC plus-4 at UCLA, over/under: 61; 5 p.m., ABC

      USC coach Steve Sarkisian is trying to follow in UCLA coach Jim Mora Jr.’s footsteps.

      Mora put a bow on each of his first two seasons as the Bruins’ head coach by beating the Trojans as a 4-point underdog to reverse a losing streak in the rivalry. In Sarkisian’s first year, the roles are directly reversed.

      UCLA opened at minus-3, but got bet up a point. Some have referenced the Bruins having the best player on the field in quarterback Brett Hundley, but that’s not entirely accurate.

      USC defensive end Leonard Williams is the favorite in most scouts’ minds to become the first player taken in next year’s NFL Draft.

      Neither Hundley, who’s thrown for more than 2,500 yards and 17 touchdowns to four interceptions, nor USC starter Cody Kessler, more than 2,900 yards and 29 touchdowns to three interceptions, may play as big a role as perceived in the Battle for Los Angeles.

      Both defenses are weaker against the ground game, giving up north of four yards per carry, and facing workhorse running backs. USC’s Javorius Allen leads the Pac-12 with 1,1184 rushing yards but UCLA’s Paul Perkins is close behind in second with 1,169 yards despite 28 fewer carries.

      Pick: USC plus-4 Picked the Trojans to win the Pac-12 before the season, and not interested in backing down now.

    Case Keefer can be reached at 948-2790 or [email protected]. Follow Case on Twitter at twitter.com/casekeefer.

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