NCAA Tournament by the odds: L.V. picks and preview of Final Four

By Case Keefer (contact)

Saturday, April 2, 2016 | 2 a.m.

The Super Bowl effect has extended to every major sporting event, especially the Final Four.

Proposition wagering now is weaved into the fabric of big-game sports betting. Every sports book in Las Vegas will release a page or two of alternate ways to bet on the Final Four, which plays out starting at 3 p.m. today in Houston.

Oklahoma senior superstar Buddy Hield is poised to draw the most action. The Bahamian posted with an over/under of 25.5 points scored in his team’s game against Villanova.

Offshore shops, which operate without the restrictions of the Nevada Gaming Control Board, get more wacky with bets on things like which coach will get the first technical foul and which alumnus trends on twitter.

But the blog will stay focused on the old-fashioned point spread in winding down the obligation to pick every game in the NCAA Tournament. Talking Points has gone 34-29-1 against the spread so far with three to go.

Find picks and analysis on the national semifinals below.

No. 2 seed Villanova minus-2 vs. No. 2 seed Oklahoma Handicapping teams that rely this heavily on 3-point shooting can be tricky. Villanova and Oklahoma each take more than 40 percent of their field-goal attempts from beyond the arc. That’s not to say they aren’t efficient at shooting from long range. The Wildcats have converted on 46 percent of their 3-point attempts in the NCAA Tournament, while the Sooners are at 44 percent on 15 more attempts.

But the volatility of two teams with that makeup was exemplified the first time they met. Even those firing limit-bets on Oklahoma — which might be quite a few considering it has attracted 63 percent of the money wagered at William Hill sports books — wouldn’t say it's far superior to Villanova. And yet it looked that way when the Sooners drowned the Wildcats 78-55 as 5-point underdogs last December in Hawaii. Oklahoma made its first six 3s to discombobulate Villanova, which went 4-for-32 on triples in an effort to get back into the game.

Assuming the Sooners don’t catch fire like that again — though it can’t be ruled out with Hield averaging a tournament-leading 25 points per game — the Wildcats should be able to control the game. They’re better in two more maintainable categories — defense and scoring inside. Villanova rates seventh nationally in defensive efficiency, per kenpom.com, with Oklahoma trailing at No. 13. When the Wildcats’ 3s weren’t falling in last round’s upset over Kansas, they went inside and let easy looks from Josh Hart and Daniel Ochefu guide them to victory. Villanova is second in the nation in 2-point field-goal percentage. Oklahoma is 187th. The market has overvalued Oklahoma all year as it’s 14-20 against the spread and hasn’t covered three in a row since a run during nonconference play. It shouldn’t get over the hump now, not against the more balanced team.

No. 10 seed Syracuse plus-9.5 vs. No. 1 seed North Carolina Money is pouring in on the Tar Heels, and with their assurance that they’ll focus their offensive attack in the paint, why not? North Carolina has climbed to have the top offensive efficiency in the country, per kenpom.com, by pounding the ball inside to Brice Johnson, who’s now the favorite to win the tournament’s most valuable player at 4-to-1 odds.

The Tar Heels have gotten into trouble throughout the year when they’ve toned down their aggressiveness and settled for low-percentage jump shots, a trap they've resisted during this tournament. Syracuse could bring it out of them, though. The Orange already have, in fact, as the Tar Heels took 25 3-pointers — eight above their season average — in the teams’ most recent meeting at the end of the regular season. North Carolina defended its home court to win 75-70, but never sniffed covering the 13-point spread.

Of course, the opposite occurred when the teams played earlier in the year with North Carolina driving all night to beat Syracuse 84-73 as a 7.5-point road favorite. But that was Syracuse coach Jim Boeheim’s first game back when the team was mired in the downfall that led it to reach 1,000-to-1 odds in the futures at one sports book. It’s a different team now, and much of that comes from Boeheim being locked in. Boeheim has implemented the perfect defensive adjustments to overcome double-digit deficits in the Orange’s last two games. They must avoid falling into that type of hole against North Carolina, something that might not be as difficult as perceived. The Tar Heels have played a feeble slate of defenses so far in the tournament, with their opponents’ average rank in efficiency at 108th. Syracuse is No. 16. It’s going to be much harder for North Carolina to run free and create the same pace of constant highlights against Syracuse.

Case Keefer can be reached at 702-948-2790 or [email protected]. Follow Case on Twitter at twitter.com/casekeefer.