NCAA Tournament by the odds: L.V. picks and perspective of the South Region

By Case Keefer (contact)

Published Tuesday, March 15, 2016 | 2 a.m.

Updated Wednesday, March 16, 2016 | 11:52 a.m.

Note: This is the first of Talking Points’ four-part NCAA Tournament betting preview. Check back over the next two days for the other entries, and scroll to the bottom of the page for picks on all the first-round games.

Go ahead and prepare the choking punch lines and mocking memes for social media consumption.

Failure-inspired snark is sure to locate a landing spot in the NCAA Tournament’s South Region. The bracket’s top six seeds, all of which have at least a 7 percent chance of winning the region by the odds at the Westgate Las Vegas Superbook, share a recent history of March sadness.

In 28 combined appearances under their current coaches, the six teams have gotten upset to exit the tournament earlier than the odds suggested they should on 18 occasions.

Like the archetypal Adam Sandler character, they’re token underachievers. Only the public consensus seems to find the basketball teams more amusing of late.

The South’s top two seeds, Kansas and Villanova, have reserved the bulk of the ridicule. Although Kansas coach Bill Self has reached two national-championship games with one victory — more than Villanova’s Jay Wright, who has one Final Four appearance, can claim — almost every other year has ended in premature disappointment.

Self’s teams own a staggering three tournament losses as double-digit favorites — to Virginia Commonwealth in the 2011 Elite Eight, Northern Iowa in the 2010 second round and Bucknell in the 2004 first round. The Jayhawks are 19-19 against the spread in the tournament under Self, including 9-13 since their 2008 title triumph.

But this might be his best team since then. Kansas closed the season with 14 straight wins, going 11-3 against the spread.

That brought its season record versus the Las Vegas number to 21-11, the second-best of Self’s tenure. Only Seton Hall and Michigan State, which Kansas coincidentally passed to become the tournament favorite at 9-to-2 odds on selection Sunday, put up better against the spread records in power conferences this year.

The 2016 Jayhawks boast the typical Self hallmarks of a stingy defense and balanced scoring attack. They’re fifth in the nation in defensive efficiency, per kenpom.com.

Sophomore Devonte’ Graham joins upperclassmen Perry Ellis, Frank Mason and Wayne Selden in averaging 12 points per game or more.

Unlike last year’s undefeated Kentucky team, earning the overall No. 1 seed didn’t entitle Kansas to a red-carpet stroll to the Final Four. Odds-wise, the South Region is the toughest in the tournament.

Of the 19 teams listed at 40-to-1 or less to win the national championship at the Superbook, six of them compete in the South — more than any other bracket. And there were even more in that range before the selection Sunday assignments fluctuated the market.

No. 7 seed Iowa and No. 9 seed Connecticut were also 40-to-1 last week before raising to 80-to-1 and 100-to-1, respectively.

The Hawkeyes, which finished the season on a 2-6 straight-up and 1-7 against the spread downturn despite having one of the nation’s best players in senior forward Jarrod Uthoff, fit in among the South's tournament slackers. They haven’t made it out of the first weekend this century, with their defining moment losing as 7-point favorites as a No. 3 seed to No. 14 seed Northwestern State in 2006.

Laying 7 points to No. 10 seed Temple on Friday in Brooklyn, Iowa is the biggest No. 7 seed first-round favorite in at least 10 years.

If the region is like a meeting of Schlub’s Anonymous, then UConn’s only role would be as the counselor. The Huskies are what the rest of the teams aspire to, as they’ve won the national championship two of the last three times they’ve made the NCAA Tournament.

Mediocre regular seasons and unexpectedly wild runs through their conference tournaments preceded each of the trophies. Sure enough, Connecticut came into last week’s American Athletic Conference tournament as the No. 5 seed and on the NCAA bubble.

They then upset Cincinnati in quadruple overtime courtesy of a three-quarters court buzzer beater by Jalen Adams at the end of the third extra period and went on to win the whole event. Sophomore guard Daniel Hamilton has exhibited some Kemba Walker/Shabazz Napier possibilities by averaging 18 points per game in March.

Kansas fans may find it diabolical that a team as dangerous as UConn could loom in the second-round if the Huskies defeat Colorado as 3.5-point favorites on Thursday.

Villanova was a second-round victim of UConn in 2014, losing 77-65 as 4-point favorites. Another second-game ouster last year, as a No. 1 seed to No. 8 seed North Carolina State as 10-point favorites, left Wright’s lifetime tournament record at 10-16 against the spread including 2-6 since Villanova’s 2009 Final Four run.

Wright knows he’s at the point where his team’s successes will be judged solely on the postseason, and he’s acted accordingly. The Wildcats were dominant for most of the year, posting an even better point differential than the Jayhawks’ — plus-13.3 per game to plus-12.7.

They spent the last several weeks as one of the top five teams in future odds to win the tournament, and remain there tied with Virginia at 12-to-1 behind only Kansas, Michigan State and North Carolina.

Many, including the senior himself, joke that Kansas’ Ellis has played long enough to have been teammates with Danny Manning when the Jayhawks won the championship in 1988. If that’s the case, then Villanova point guard Ryan Arcidiacono may have suited up alongside Ed Pinckney when the Wildcats won in 1985.

Like Ellis, Arcidiacono is a four-year starter and emotional center of his team. Neither Kansas nor Villanova is as experienced as No. 3 seed Miami, though.

Behind senior leading-scorers Angel Rodriguez and Sheldon McClellan, Miami is the ninth-oldest team in the tournament per kenpom. The Hurricanes have less of a postseason pedigree, but were one of the most popularly bet teams to win the title as a No. 2 seed three years ago in coach Jim Larranaga’s only berth at Miami.

They bowed out in the Sweet 16, falling 71-61 to Marquette as a 5.5-point favorite. Even if it gets by Buffalo laying 14 points in the opening round, Miami projects to have the toughest second opponent of any No. 3 seed.

From a sports book perspective, tonight’s game between No. 11 seeds Wichita State and Vanderbilt is the best First Four matchup ever. Both the Shockers and the Commodores would have given 6 points or more on the betting line to either Michigan and Tulsa, which play in the other No. 11 seed play-in game.

The winner will enter into a near pick’em matchup with Arizona, the toughest No. 6 seed by Las Vegas standards. Oddsmakers favored the Wildcats to make the Final Four each of the last two years before they were upset twice by Wisconsin in the Elite Eight.

Senior point guard Gabe York and senior center Kaleb Tarczewski are the only key contributors back off of those teams, making a 15-year Final Four drought for the program likely to extend. Arizona tied for third in the Pac-12 regular season with California, which is seeded two spots ahead in the South but offered at the same 40-to-1 price to win the national championship.

The Golden Bears are the only team outside of Kentucky with two surefire NBA Draft lottery picks in freshmen Jaylen Brown, a guard, and Ivan Rabb, a forward. The team jelled late in the year, winning seven in a row and covering eight straight in February to earn the highest seed in school history.

No. 5 seed Maryland has its own inside-out duo that could go in the first-round of the NBA Draft in sophomore point guard Melo Trimble and freshman center Diamond Stone.

The Terrapins were as an 8-to-1 co-favorite to win the title two weeks before the season started. It was mighty high expectations for a school that’s gone 4-4 straight-up and 3-5 against the spread with no escapes past the second-round in the NCAA Tournament over the last 10 years.

Since winning the national championship in 2002, Maryland has suffered the same plight as most of the teams around them this year. The odds indicate a great chance, in excess of 95 percent, that one of the recently troubled teams goes through the cinematic transformation from washout to magnate and reaches the Final Four.

And for those that don’t, further derision waits.

Pick to win the Region: Kansas at Even money The bottom of the bracket is so stacked that it’s difficult to discern which team will survive. Kansas should at least reach the Elite Eight barring a major upset, which is admittedly no guarantee given the Jayhawks’ past. But since none of the other contenders are offered at high enough of a payout, going the safer route with Kansas is the pick.

South Region Picks Against the Spread (in order of confidence)

Note: We’ll pick every game throughout the tournament, giving analysis on every one in later rounds, even though it’s a losing long-term strategy. Last year, the blog finished 35-30-2. Check back after the First Four game for the final pick.

No. 12 seed Hawaii plus-7.5 vs. No. 4 seed California

No. 11 seed Wichita State plus-1.5 vs. No. 6 seed Arizona

No. 7 seed Iowa minus-7 vs. No. 10 seed Temple

No. 11 seed Wichita State minus-3.5 vs. No. 11 seed Vanderbilt

No. 8 seed Colorado plus-3.5 vs. No. 9 seed Connecticut

No. 14 seed Buffalo plus-14 vs. No. 3 seed Miami

No. 1 seed Kansas minus-26 vs. No. 16 seed Austin Peay

No. 2 seed Villanova minus-17.5 vs. No. 15 seed UNC-Asheville

No. 5 seed Maryland minus-9 vs. No. 12 seed South Dakota State

Case Keefer can be reached at 702-948-2790 or [email protected]. Follow Case on Twitter at twitter.com/casekeefer.