Be careful when picking your March Madness dance partner

By Case Keefer (contact)

Sunday, March 13, 2016 | 1 a.m.

The biggest sports betting event of the year is here, and the consensus is there’s no consensus on which team will win the 2016 NCAA Tournament.

The odds at the Westgate Las Vegas Superbook list 14 programs at odds of 30-to-1 or less, meaning nearly a quarter of the teams in the field have at least a 2 percent chance of taking the title.

To prepare for the madness, we examined those 14 and weighed in on whether gamblers should bet on or against them in the tournament.

Kansas

The Jayhawks went 11-4 straight up and against the spread in road and neutral-site games, which usually is a harbinger of postseason success. They might have the most depth of all the contenders, plus they have an unstoppable inside-out combination of Frank Mason and Perry Ellis.

The verdict: Bet on Kansas.

Michigan State

The Spartans may have the best chance of any team to reach the Final Four, but that doesn’t mean they’re going to consistently cover along the way. Coach Tom Izzo’s highly publicized NCAA Tournament success, which includes seven Final Four appearances, will have bettors backing Michigan State more than any other team. That creates inflated point spreads and value in going the other way.

The verdict: Bet against Michigan State.

Kentucky

It’s time to give coach John Calipari and his staff their due for mastering the postseason. In four appearances at Kentucky, Calipari is 19-3 straight up, 13-9 against the spread in the tournament.

The verdict: Bet on Kentucky

Virginia

Opponents will find Virginia a nightmare to prepare for on relatively short notice. The Cavaliers hardly ever attempt bad shots and play at the nation’s slowest pace to take opponents out of their element.The verdict: Bet on Virginia

North Carolina

Although they had a terrific season and won the Atlantic Coast Conference, the Tar Heels never transformed into the juggernaut that was the preseason favorite to win the national championship. They went just 13-17-1 against the spread during the regular season.

The verdict: Bet against North Carolina

Oklahoma

The Sooners quietly regressed at the end of the regular season, going on a 3-8 tailspin against the spread. Foes have partially solved the puzzle their offense previously presented.

The verdict: Bet against Oklahoma

Villanova

Sports bettors need a sense of when to buy low on a team. Not many are willing to touch Villanova with its tradition of disappointment in March. Coach Jay Wright is just 10-16 against the spread in the NCAA Tournament, but this might be his best team.

The verdict: Bet on Villanova

Xavier

Highly seeded teams with defensive issues tend to be the ones to fall to upsets on the first weekend. Although the Musketeers can score as efficiently as any team, they’re barely in the nation’s top 50 in defensive efficiency.

The verdict: Bet against Xavier

Indiana

Like Xavier, Indiana’s problem lies in having only an average defense to pair with an outstanding offense. To trust a team laying points in the NCAA Tournament, a bettor needs it to play well on both sides of the court.

The verdict: Bet against Indiana

Maryland

The Terrapins are careless with the ball and haven’t won a road game in more than a month. Overall, they went an alarming 9-8 straight up, 7-9-1 against the spread away from home.

The verdict: Bet Maryland

Miami

The Hurricanes have flown faster all season than the oddsmakers. The Hurricanes went an ACC-best 19-10 against the spread during the regular season.

The verdict: Bet on Miami

Duke

Lack of depth will keep the Blue Devils from seriously threatening to repeat, but that doesn’t mean they won’t blow out a few less talented teams first and maybe even hang with one of the aforementioned programs as an underdog. That’s the luxury of having a backcourt duo as explosive as Grayson Allen and Brandon Ingram.

The verdict: Bet on Duke

Oregon

Winning the Pac-12 regular-season title sounds more impressive than it is, given that the league was solid but unspectacular this year. The Ducks were fortunate to win it, with an average point differential of only plus-8.5 per game.

The verdict: Bet against Oregon

Arizona

In contrast to Oregon, Arizona outscored opponents by 13 points per game. The Wildcats seemed cursed in close games for much of the regular season, as their seven losses came by an average of 4 points each. That makes them undervalued going forward.

The verdict: Bet on Arizona