Las Vegas Sun

March 28, 2024

NCAA Tournament by the odds: L.V. preview and picks of Saturday’s games

Indiana

Charlie Neibergall / AP

Indiana guard Yogi Ferrell drives to the basket during the second half of a first-round men’s college basketball game against Chattanooga in the NCAA Tournament, Thursday, March 17, 2016, in Des Moines, Iowa.

Of the 10 favorites that covered on the first full day of the NCAA Tournament Thursday, two managed to cash for their backers with particular ease.

Those two play this afternoon in what shapes up as one of the early high points of March Madness. Kentucky and Indiana renew a rivalry they discontinued with a right to advance to the Sweet 16 at stake at 2:15 p.m. in St. Louis.

Both the Wildcats and Hoosiers obliterated their first-round opponents, beating the spread by 14 points. No. 4 seed Kentucky eclipsed its minus-14 price against Stony Brook with four minutes to go in the first half, and cruised to an 85-57 victory.

No. 5 seed Indiana similarly spared its supporters suspense, getting past the 11-point line against Tennessee-Chattanooga two minutes into second half and finishing with a 99-74 win.

In the teams’ first meeting in four years — since a 102-90 Kentucky victory in the Sweet 16 — the Wildcats lay 3 points. Who is Talking Points taking?

Find out below with picks on all of Saturday’s games listed in rough order of confidence. Picking every game is an unprofitable long-term strategy but we’re doing it in the blog for the NCAA Tournament with the record through the first round 17-18-1.

No. 11 seed Gonzaga pick’em vs. No. 3 seed Utah There’s a widespread perception that Utah has played much tougher competition than Gonzaga this season. While there’s a shred of truth in that belief, it’s not enough to bridge the gap between the Bulldogs outscoring their opponents by 13 points per game and the Utes winning only by an average of 7.5 points.

No. 4 Iowa State minus-6.5 vs. No. 12 seed Arkansas-Little Rock Let’s poach a nugget from this week’s Las Vegas Weekly — teams seeded No. 12 or higher are 8-28 straight-up, 16-20 against the spread after a first-round upset over the last eight years. Little Rock is better than most of those teams, but it’s coming off of a grueling double-overtime victory over Purdue while Iowa State had a relatively easy time with Iona.

Click to enlarge photo

Providence forward Rodney Bullock, second from left is embraced by teammates after hitting the game-winning basket against Southern California during the second half of a first-round men's college basketball game in the NCAA Tournament, Friday, March 18, 2016, in Raleigh, N.C. Providence won 70-69.

No. 9 seed Providence plus-10 vs. No. 1 seed North Carolina For all the talk of Roy Williams’ seamless record in the first round, it should be noted that he’s equally struggled in the second round. Williams has exited nine times in the game before the sweet 16, and might have his hands full matching up against one of college basketball’s most underrated coaches in Ed Cooley.

No. 5 seed Indiana plus-3 vs. No. 4 seed Kentucky Hoped to get an extra point or two, but with almost all the money bound to come in on Kentucky, there’s value by looking the other way in a game between two teams that are similarly distinguished. Indiana went 26-7 straight-up, 18-15 against the spread with an average point differential of plus-13. Kentucky sits at 27-8 straight-up, 19-16 against the spread with an average point differential of plus-12.

No. 4 seed Duke minus-6 vs. No. 12 seed Yale Would feel hypocritical to cite betting struggles of higher-seeded teams out of the first-round, and then pick one a few lines down. Duke was a 14.5-point favorite when it beat Yale 80-61 in November, and even the move to a neutral court and the loss of Amile Jefferson since that game doesn’t merit this large of a line move.

No. 1 seed Kansas minus-8 vs. No. 9 seed Connecticut Colorado found surprising success in racing out to a 36-27 halftime lead over Connecticut on Thursday by pounding the ball inside, a strategy Kansas can replicate except more successfully. Bill Self wants to run his offense through senior power forward Perry Ellis.

No. 3 seed Miami plus-2.5 vs. No. 11 seed Wichita State Fear that the market has harvested the value out of the Shockers after two straight easy covers to open the tournament. Wichita State is better than Miami, but beating a third team ranked inside the top 25 of most oddsmakers’ power ratings in five days is a lot to ask.

No. 1 Virginia minus-7 vs. No. 9 seed Butler The spread is beginning to balloon around town, so locking in what could look like a discount come tipoff. Butler’s defense, rated No. 116 in the nation by kenpom.com, may not prove sufficient enough to slow Virginia.

Case Keefer can be reached at 702-948-2790 or [email protected]. Follow Case on Twitter at twitter.com/casekeefer.

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