NCAA Tournament by the odds: L.V. preview and picks of Sunday’s games

By Case Keefer (contact)

Sunday, March 20, 2016 | 2 a.m.

The set of teams playing Sunday hit the sports books and ballrooms full of people in Las Vegas like a calendar reminder during their first-round games on Friday.

They let everyone know just what time of the year it was, ringing in the type of moments only March Madness can provide. Even before one of the most memorable one-two punches in NCAA Tournament history with Northern Iowa’s halfcourt buzzer-beater and Cincinnati’s late (non-)dunk to end the day, bettors were buzzing from the volatile results.

Underdogs went 10-6 against the spread including six outright upsets to put memories of a relatively chalky Thursday — when underdogs went 6-10 against the spread, 2-14 straight-up — to bed. No. 15 seed Middle Tennessee’s 90-81 stunner over No. 2 seed Michigan State registered as the fourth biggest upset in NCAA Tournament history by the point spread.

The Blue Raiders closed as 16.5-point underdogs, the most points a team have overcome since Norfolk State defeated Missouri getting 21.5 points in 2012.

Can teams like Middle Tennessee and Northern Iowa keep raising the decibel levels around town?

Check out Talking Points’ against the spread picks below. Taking a side on every NCAA Tournament game so far, the blog has gone 24-19-1. Picks are in rough order of confidence.

No. 14 seed Stephen F. Austin plus-1.5 vs. No. 6 seed Notre Dame The Lumberjacks’ pasting of rugged West Virginia 70-56 juxtaposed with the Irish’s late-game escape of mediocre Michigan 70-63 exposed a reality to the masses that many college basketball junkies already knew: Stephen F. Austin is the better team. Forget the seeds, the Lumberjacks should be laying points in Brooklyn.

No. 7 seed Wisconsin plus-5 vs. No. 2 seed Xavier Lost in the jokes and complaints over Wisconsin’s 47-43 first-round win against Pittsburgh — the third lowest NCAA Tournament game of the shot-clock era —was the fact that the Panthers had been a solid offensive teams for stretches of the season. Xavier is likely ill-prepared for the defensive prowess Wisconsin should provide.

No. 10 seed Syracuse minus-6 vs. No. 15 seed Middle Tennessee State All of those contributing to the flood of early money on the underdog might be about to learn the dangers in backing a team that plays such a high-variance style. There’s little chance Middle Tennessee can come close to repeating its Michigan State shooting performance — 22-for-40 from the field, 11-for-19 from three — again.

No. 2 seed Oklahoma minus-6.5 vs. No. 10 seed VCU This year’s Commodores aren’t as stingy as past VCU teams that found success in the tournament, particularly from long range as they are 131st in the nation in three-point percentage defense. That’s a major problem against Oklahoma, which is the best long-range shooting team left in the tournament.

No. 2 seed Villanova minus-6 vs. No. 7 seed Iowa The Hawkeyes’ unconvincing performance against outmanned Temple in the first round showed that a weeklong break didn’t repair their late-season swoon. Iowa has now failed to cover in eight of its last nine games, going 3-6 straight-up in the span.

No. 3 seed Texas A&M minus-6.5 vs. No. 11 seed Northern Iowa Panthers may have become ever-so-slightly overvalued on the betting line by virtue of winning all four of their postseason games — including the Missouri Valley Conference tournament — by six points or less. Texas A&M is too fundamentally sound to get flustered by Northern Iowa’s plodding pace.

No. 9 seed Saint Joseph’s plus-7 vs. No. 1 seed Oregon Total toss-up on the line with a game between arguably the two hottest offensive teams in the country, as they’ve combined to shoot better than 51 percent from the field since the start of their respective conference tournaments. Must therefore look to pick against the side receiving in excess of 80 percent of the betting action.

No. 13 seed Hawaii plus-7 vs. No. 5 seed Maryland Maryland profiles somewhat similarly to California as a young team that scores best inside behind the lead of an electric point guard. The Rainbow Warriors might not be able to beat two such teams back-to-back, but the experience of dismantling the Golden Bears 77-66 should at least help them stay competitive against the Terrapins.

Case Keefer can be reached at 702-948-2790 or [email protected]. Follow Case on Twitter at twitter.com/casekeefer.