NCAA Tournament by the odds: Las Vegas picks and preview of Sunday’s games

By Case Keefer (contact)

Sunday, March 22, 2015 | 2 a.m.

Exhausted from three full days of gambling, sports book crowds typically disappear on Sunday morning of the first NCAA Tournament weekend.

Tourists plan their departures and locals sacrifice a game or two to sleep in. Perhaps today’s first game will inspire bettors to muster their reserve energy for a change.

No. 2 seed Virginia and No. 7 seed Michigan State open the final slate scheduled for sports books’ busiest weekend at 9:10 a.m. today. The pairing was one of the round of 32’s most buzzed about games from college basketball aficionados and sports betting enthusiasts alike.

It’s a matchup between two powers — one traditional and one upstart. Just as importantly, it’s a rematch of one of the best tournament games from last year.

They engaged in a back-and-forth Sweet 16 affair that ultimately saw the top-seeded Cavaliers meet their demise but cover the plus-2.5 betting line in a 61-59 victory for the Spartans.

The betting-board positions are flipped a year later, with Virginia coming in as a 4.5-point favorite. Is Virginia doomed again? Will the point spread come into play?

Find Talking Points’ pick below along with all the other games scheduled for Sunday, presented in order of confidence. The blog’s record picking every tournament game, an inherent disadvantage and for-entertainment-only endeavor, sits at 23-20-1.

No. 3 seed Oklahoma minus-4 vs. No. 11 seed Dayton Expecting Oklahoma to break out of a prolonged shooting funk, which has seen it go less than 39 percent from the field since the start of the month, at any moment now. The Sooners should certainly have fresher legs, as the Flyers lace up for their sixth game in 10 days.

No. 5 seed West Virginia plus-1 vs. No. 4 seed Maryland Juwan Staten looked fully recovered from knee and groin ailments in scoring 15 points to go with seven assists in West Virginia’s 68-62 victory over Buffalo on Friday. That spells trouble for Maryland, which also isn’t savvy enough to break West Virginia’s press consistently.

No. 7 seed Wichita State plus-1.5 vs. No. 2 seed Kansas Shockers aren’t at as much of a talent and athleticism disadvantage against the Jayhawks as perceived. And they’re far better from a fundamental standpoint, hardly ever committing turnovers while coming up with a higher percentage of steals than any team in the nation.

No. 2 seed Virginia minus-4.5 vs. No. 7 seed Michigan State The biggest difference between this game and the one last year, other than the point spread, is that Virginia comes in as the more seasoned team this time around. The Cavaliers return all but two players who appeared in the previous meeting, accounting for 70 percent of the minutes. Michigan State lost four contributors who accounted for 48 percent of the minutes.

No. 5 seed Northern Iowa minus-2.5 vs. No. 4 seed Louisville Oddsmakers have overvalued the Cardinals all year, hence why they dropped to 11-19-2 against the spread with a fortunate 57-55 victory as an 8-point favorite over UC Irvine on Friday. The Panthers are similarly undervalued, improving to 20-9-3 against the spread by beating Wyoming 71-54 at minus-6.5

No. 1 seed Duke minus-9.5 vs. No. 8 seed San Diego State Aztecs found success out of their element in a round of 64 win over Saint John’s, hitting jump shots and excelling in transition. Nothing could be worse going into a showdown with Duke, which will smash San Diego State if it settles into another fast-paced game.

No. 7 seed Iowa plus-6.5 vs. No. 2 seed Gonzaga If both teams play at their highest level, Gonzaga should win by double digits. But it’s difficult to shake memories of a decade’s worth of Bulldogs flameouts and non-covers in the NCAA Tournament — it’s just 7-14 against the spread in the span — long enough to feel comfortable backing them.

No. 1 seed Wisconsin minus-12 vs. No. 8 seed Oregon Ducks are ill-equipped to combat Badgers’ shooting and rebounding prowess with a mediocre defense and frontcourt. Wisconsin managed a backdoor cover in last year’s round of 32 meeting between the two teams — winning 85-77 as 6.5-point favorites — and a strong potential exists for Oregon to return the favor.

Case Keefer can be reached at 948-2790 or [email protected]. Follow Case on Twitter at twitter.com/casekeefer.