NCAA Tournament by the odds: Las Vegas picks and preview of Saturday’s games

By Case Keefer (contact)

Published Saturday, March 21, 2015 | 2 a.m.

Updated Saturday, March 21, 2015 | 9:25 a.m.

Exiting a sports book Thursday night in some cases may have required swimming through a pool of discarded betting slips.

The first full day of the NCAA Tournament went down as one to remember for the house as underdogs covered in 10 of 16 games, including the first six straight, to take an ocean of cash off the betting public.

The escape route was clearer 24 hours later. Gamblers managed to drain out a small amount of sports books’ winnings on the second day, where only one outright upset occurred out of 16 games.

Underdogs still fared well on the betting line, going 8-8, but it wasn’t until Dayton chopped down Providence 66-53 as 3-point underdogs in the final contest of the day that a favorite didn’t advance. It had been more than a 30-hour drought since the instantly infamous goaltending call gave UCLA a 60-59 victory over SMU as 3-point underdogs.

Overall, underdogs are well ahead on the point spread with a 24-12 record heading into the third round. Talking Points has enjoyed the upheaval immensely, starting 19-16-1 against the spread picking every game.

Here’s the usual disclaimer of the inherent unprofitability of forcing a wager on every option on the board, but we’ll continue to do it here throughout the tournament for fun anyway.

Check out picks for all of Saturday’s games below, presented in order of confidence.

No. 6 seed Butler plus-4.5 vs. No. 3 seed Notre Dame The Bulldogs are one of most dependable teams in the tournament. Case in point: They took Texas out of their element in a 56-48 victory Thursday despite shooting 33 percent from the field. The Irish play with much more variance, relying heavily on jump shots.

No. 14 seed Georgia State plus-7.5 vs. No. 6 seed Xavier An even bigger surprise than R.J. Hunter’s deep three-pointer to upset Baylor Thursday was his starting the game 1-for-8 from the field. Baylor also out-rebounded Georgia State by 18 boards in the game. Xavier has neither the defensive ability nor the rebounding chops of Baylor.

No. 6 seed UCLA minus-6 vs. No. 14 seed UAB Value rests with the favorite, especially after early action dropped two points from the opening line of minus-8. UCLA is not eight points worse than Iowa State, which is what this line suggests after UAB came into its opening upset at plus-14.

No. 5 seed Utah minus-4 vs. No. 4 seed Georgetown The Utes match up exceptionally well with the Hoyas, playing suffocating perimeter defense to limit three-point shots while having big bodies in Jacob Poeltl and Dallin Bachynski to throw at Josh Smith. Georgetown will find it tougher to guard Utah star Delon Wright.

No. 8 seed Cincinnati plus-17 vs. No. 1 seed Kentucky Kentucky failed to cover by 11 points in a tournament-opening romp over Hampton, giving a sneak peak at the insanely overinflated spreads it will command throughout the event. The Bearcats won’t be completely overwhelmed like the Pirates. Cincinnati, on the contrary, is arguably the toughest team Kentucky has played since December.

No. 10 seed Ohio State plus-9.5 vs. No. 2 seed Arizona Buckeyes haven’t been this large of an underdog in six years. They’ve also lost by 10 points or more on only one occasion this season. Arizona’s great, but maybe not great enough to blow out an opponent of Ohio State’s caliber.

No. 5 seed Arkansas plus-4.5 vs. No. 4 seed North Carolina These are two of the most similar teams in the tournament with strong interior scoring options, headlined by Arkansas’ Bobby Portis and North Carolina’s Brice Johnson, and fast-paced, mistake-prone styles. With that in mind, points on either side become the play.

No. 1 seed Villanova minus-9 vs. No. 8 seed North Carolina State The Wolfpack’s pair of upsets over Duke and North Carolina are widely referenced as reasons for why they’re capable of beating everyone. Less discussed is their 4-8 straight-up and against the spread records in other games against teams that made the NCAA Tournament.

Case Keefer can be reached at 948-2790 or [email protected]. Follow Case on Twitter at twitter.com/casekeefer.