Las Vegas Sun

March 28, 2024

NCAA Tournament by the odds: How Las Vegas sports books see East Region

Tuttle NCAA

ASSOCIATED PRESS

Northern Iowa forward Seth Tuttle, right, drives to the basket ahead of Evansville forward Jaylon Moore during the second half of an NCAA college basketball game, Wednesday, Feb. 25, 2015, in Cedar Falls, Iowa. Northern Iowa won 68-57.

Updated Friday, March 20, 2015 | 12:49 a.m.

East Region bets

Which team would you bet to win the East Region?
Virginia 7-to-4 — 31.1%
Villanova 7-to-5 — 17.8%
Michigan State 12-to-1 — 17.8%
Oklahoma 6-to-1 — 15.6%
Northern Iowa 8-to-1 — 8.9%
Louisville 10-to-1 — 8.9%

This poll is closed, see Full Results »

Note: This is not a scientific poll. The results reflect only the opinions of those who chose to participate.

South Region bets

Which team would you bet to win the South Region?
Duke 8-to-5 — 41.3%
Gonzaga 11-to-5 — 28.3%
Iowa State 9-to-2 — 17.4%
Utah 11-to-2 — 8.7%
SMU 15-to-1 — 4.3%
Georgetown 12-to-1 — 0%

This poll is closed, see Full Results »

Note: This is not a scientific poll. The results reflect only the opinions of those who chose to participate.

West Region bets

Which of these bets would you make on a team to win the West Region?
Wisconsin 6-to-5 — 44.7%
Arizona 6-to-5 — 44.7%
North Carolina 10-to-1 — 4.4%
Ohio State 20-to-1 — 3.5%
Baylor 10-to-1 — 1.8%
Arkansas 25-to-1 — 0.9%

This poll is closed, see Full Results »

Note: This is not a scientific poll. The results reflect only the opinions of those who chose to participate.

Midwest Region 2015

Which of these teams would you bet to win the Midwest Region?
Kentucky 1-to-3 — 67.0%
Notre Dame 8-to-1 — 14.8%
Kansas 8-to-1 — 6.2%
Wichita State 8-to-1 — 6.2%
Maryland 20-to-1 — 3.4%
West Virginia 30-to-1 — 2.3%

This poll is closed, see Full Results »

Note: This is not a scientific poll. The results reflect only the opinions of those who chose to participate.

Note: This is the final part of the Sun’s betting previews on the NCAA Tournament. Check out part one here, part two here and part three here.

Hollywood studios would recruit Martin Scorsese as director if the NCAA Tournament’s East Region were a screenplay.

Portions of the script could be adopted from a long-lost Horatio Alger manuscript. The teams that must go through Syracuse, N.Y., to reach the Final Four construct a modern-day rags-to-riches story.

If a college basketball bettor had gotten a glimpse at the four regions before the beginning of the season, the East is the only one that wouldn’t look believable. The market didn’t expect this group, as a whole, to amount to much.

None of the eight teams that opened with the lowest future odds to win the national championship landed in the bracket. Only five squads were considered likely tournament participants at all with the rest of the field more perceived as bubble teams at best with odds of 100-to-1 or more.

Virginia and Villanova rose into a new class last season as the East’s No. 1 and No. 2 seeds, respectively, but were expected to spiral back down at least somewhat this year. The Cavaliers and Wildcats, 25- and 30-to-1 at the start of the season, instead just flipped seeds, like the West Region, in a repeat scenario.

No. 3 seed Oklahoma carried decent expectations but rested solidly in the bourgeois with a 60-to-1 price that closer indicated a No. 5 seed. The other two teams seen as possible contenders at the start of the year, No. 4 seed Louisville and No. 7 seed Michigan State, were included mostly because of their programs' rich pedigrees and despite significant roster turnover.

All the other challengers busted their way out of the slums. The teams in the East, more than any other region, quite literally grinded their way to a shot at the penthouse. They played dirty.

Michigan State is the only team of the five above that ranks outside of the top 15 nationally in defense, according to Ken Pomeroy’s metrics. Oklahoma is the only one that plays remotely fast with the other four far below the national average for pace.

And that’s before even introducing No. 5 seed Northern Iowa, the bracket’s final contender. The Panthers play the second slowest of any team in the tournament, according to Pomeroy’s tempo measures, behind region-mate Virginia.

The East is a strong bet to manufacture a disproportionately low number of plays that get social media buzzing or find their way onto SportsCenter’s Top 10 over the next two weeks.

Quite frankly, the teams don’t care. They know they were built on grit, which is the main reason why they’re now close to standing on gold.

It’s already paid off for those who supported the teams on their way up. The top 11 seeds, teams given a 1 percent chance or better to win the region by sports books, are a combined 208-149-8 against the spread with Louisville posting the sole losing record.

Stepping in front of anyone in the East has been risky. This bunch is ruthless.

There’s danger in trying to figure out which teams get to which first in the tournament. The Westgate Las Vegas Superbook gives all six aforementioned teams at least a 6 percent chance of getting to Indianapolis for the national semifinals, which is the most different teams holding that high of a probability from any region.

It’s a testament to the East’s depth that Michigan State at 12-to-1 is the final team to qualify in the privileged faction. The Spartans are typically one of the most popular bets this time of year behind Hall of Fame coach Tom Izzo, and for good reason.

Izzo has made it to six Final Fours with an overall tournament record of 33-23-2 against the spread. But a warning, which might be too late considering the spread for the opening game against Georgia has already moved a point in their direction, is needed before the Spartans woo too many gamblers.

This isn’t necessarily a vintage Izzo team. The Spartans have suffered some bad losses, including 71-64 to Texas Southern as a 24-point favorite, and aren’t as deep as usual. They spent the last couple of months as 100-to-1 shots to win the tournament, but got bet down to 60-to-1 with a perceived strong end to the season.

Michigan State wound up 5-3 straight-up and 4-4 against the spread over the last month, though, as compared to Georgia’s less praised 5-2 straight-up and against the spread.

Either Michigan State or Louisville has gotten to the Final Four in four of the last six years, but one will have to overcome long odds to continue the streak. Sports books give Louisville, at 10-to-1, only a 7 percent chance after accounting for the house’s hold to clinch its third berth in the last decade.

At 75-to-1, the Cardinals sport their highest future odds to win the title since 2011 when Morehead State stunned them 62-61 as 9-point underdogs in the round of 64. Coach Rick Pitino has bemoaned the lack “Louisville men” and dismissed third-leading scorer Chris Jones last month.

Junior forward Montrezl Harrel, who’s averaging 16 points and 10 rebounds, has played exceptionally but not quite on the level that had offshore sports books posting him as the favorite for National Player of the Year before the season.

Harrell, a consensus first-round NBA Draft pick, could improve his stock by excelling in a matchup with 7-foot-6 UC Irvine center Mamadou N’Diaye in the first game.

Casinos list Louisville as an 8-point favorite against Irvine. Many might be surprised to see the Cardinals as underdogs in the next round, but that’s what would happen if they advanced alongside Northern Iowa.

Early betting action would alert that Northern Iowa could join the surfeit of No. 5 seeds to fall to No. 12 seeds, though. The line has shifted a point in the direction No. 12 seed Wyoming, which is plus-6, after it pulled a pair of outright upsets to win the Mountain West Conference tournament last week at the Thomas and Mack Center.

The Cowboys and Panthers both use a plodding style, so it’s no surprise the over/under point total is by far the lowest of the round of 64 at 109.5.

Click to enlarge photo

Wyoming forward Larry Nance Jr., left, fights to keep possession of the ball as UNLV forward Goodluck Okonoboh does his best to strip it away Saturday, Feb. 28, 2015.

It’s apparently a pod of power forwards as Wyoming’s Larry Nance Jr., averaging 16 points and seven rebounds, and Northern Iowa’s Seth Tuttle, 15 points and seven rebounds, join Harrel in Seattle. Tuttle ranks second in the nation in Player Efficiency Rating — behind Wisconsin’s Frank Kaminsky — and has helped the Panthers cover like a machine.

Northern Iowa is 19-9-3 against the spread for the season, one of the best in the tournament but behind Villanova’s 24-9.

The Wildcats dizzied opponents with a four-guard lineup — Ryan Arcidianco, Darrun Hilliard II, Josh Hart and Dylan Ennis — but played and cashed similarly the last two years with no postseason success. They haven’t escaped the first weekend of March Madness since 2009, with coach Jay Wright’s against the record record plummeting to 9-15 lifetime in the tourney.

Trouble may lurk again with the winner of a round of 32 matchup between No. 8 seed LSU and No. 9 seed North Carolina State as both teams have pulled off upsets this season with standout performers. Two NBA prospects lead the Tigers, naturally both power forwards, in Jarell Martin and Jordan Mickey.

Shooting guard Trevor Lacey, an Alabama transfer, scored 16 points per game and ranked ninth in offensive win shares among ACC players for the Wolf Pack.

Villanova lagged behind Virginia in the fight for a No. 1 seed for most of the year but the Cavaliers dipped out of the elite late. While the rest of the East continued to make their climb up the ladder, Virginia got as low as 8-to-1 to win the tournament in January with a perfect 19-0 start to the season.

But the Cavaliers dropped three of their final 13 outright, while going 5-8 against the spread to fall out of the top line.

They’re 15-to-1 to win the title now with two primary reasons to believe they can compete more like the team from the first half of the season — a smothering defense and health. The Cavaliers maintain college basketball’s top defensive rating. They also return Justin Anderson, who missed more than a month with multiple maladies, at supposed full strength to his spot in a leadership triad with Malcolm Brogdon and Anthony Gill.

Future odds give Villanova a 4 percent better chance than Virginia to come out of the region, but out of the millions of brackets on Yahoo! Sports, more are going with the latter. Nearly 90 percent of the country is picking Villanova, Virginia, Louisville or Michigan State out of the East.

That’s a collective oversight of Oklahoma, which at 6-to-1 odds or an 11 percent probability is the second most likely No. 3 seed to get to the Final Four — just behind South Region Big 12 brethren Iowa State.

The Sooners produced the Big 12 Player of the Year in Buddy Hield and played the toughest schedule of anyone in the East, according to Pomeroy’s numbers. Hield has somehow managed to keep a low profile despite averaging nearly 18 points, six rebounds and two assists per game.

Speaking of under-appreciated forces, No. 6 seed Providence might have the best inside-out duo in the bracket. Kris Dunn scores 16 points per game and dishes eight assists while LaDontae Henton averages 19 points and seven rebounds.

The Friars were 1,000-to-1 in the futures in early February, making them long shots to get in the tournament, but they persevered with a 5-3 straight-up and against the spread record including two outright upsets to make it comfortably.

The struggle to survive inflicted several teams in the East before they positioned themselves for a real shot at their dreams.

Pick to win the region: Oklahoma at 6-to-1 Virginia and Villanova are priced like they’re much better than Oklahoma. They’re not. This is a wide-open collection of teams, and the region most likely to send a surprise participant to the Final Four. So why not lean to a well-coached team with a rugged defense and offensive firepower?

East Region Picks Against The Spread (in order of confidence)

Note: It’s a losing long-term strategy to pick every game, but we’ll go for it in the blog anyway and track records through every round. Check back after Wednesday’s first four games for the final pick.

No. 10 seed Georgia plus-5.5 vs. No. 7 seed Michigan State

No. 15 seed Belmont plus-17 vs. No. 2 seed Virginia

No. 8 seed LSU plus-2 vs. No. 9 seed North Carolina State

No. 12 seed Wyoming plus-6.5 vs. No. 5 seed Northern Iowa

No. 16 seed Lafayette plus-23 vs. No. 1 seed Villanova

No. 11 seed Boise State plus-4 vs. No. 11 seed Dayton

No. 3 seed Oklahoma minus-13 vs. No. 14 seed Albany

No. 11 seed Daytona plus-3.5 vs. No. 6 seed Providence

No. 4 seed Louisville minus-8 vs. No. 13 seed UC-Irvine

Case Keefer can be reached at 948-2790 or [email protected]. Follow Case on Twitter at twitter.com/casekeefer.

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