NCAA Tournament by the odds: How Las Vegas sports books see the South Region

By Case Keefer (contact)

Published Wednesday, March 18, 2015 | 2 a.m.

Updated Friday, March 20, 2015 | 12:46 a.m.

Note: This is part three of the Sun’s betting previews on the NCAA Tournament. Check out part one here, part two here and come back later for the final installment.

If redemption is truly the greatest motivator in all of sports, then players in the South Region of the NCAA Tournament will sacrifice themselves for every loose ball and act as if each possession is crucial.

The teams competing to get to Houston next weekend on their way to the Final Four have endured an ignominious last decade in college basketball’s championship event. The top seven seeded teams, which sports books odds calculate have a combined 92 percent chance to win the South’s bid, have accounted for only 10 Sweet 16 berths and two Final Four appearances since 2005.

That’s the lowest of any region, but still might not sound all that miserable until considering six of the Sweet 16s and one of the Final Fours belong to top-seeded Duke.

Even the Blue Devils, however, have fallen off by the lofty standards coach Mike Krzyzewski set 30 years ago. Although Duke converted on the Final Four trip with a national championship in 2010 — assist to the rim on Gordon Heyward’s buzzer-beater halfcourt shot — it’s exited early by the odds in three of the four years since.

The Blue Devils’ overall tournament records since Krzyzewski’s fourth title are 5-4 straight-up and 3-6 against the spread, including bombing out in the round of 64 twice in the last three years. They lost to Mercer 78-71 as a 13-point favorite last year following Lehigh 75-70 as an 11-point favorite in 2012.

Despite dramatic roster turnover, this year’s squad shares a strong resemblance to those two early-eliminated groups in that they can score with ease but also give up too many points. Duke is third in Ken Pomeroy’s metric for offensive efficiency, and 57th in defense.

The Blue Devils have the nation’s best trio of freshmen, all in complementary places no less with big man Jahlil Okafor, point guard Tyus Jones and slasher Justice Winslow, to pair with resident sharpshooter Quinn Cook. They’re only half of the reason why nearly 60 percent of Duke’s games have gone over sports books’ totals this year, though.

Problems exist on the other end when the likes of Miami, North Carolina State and Virginia Tech explode for more than 80 points. It’s the formula Mercer, a No. 14 seed, and Lehigh, a No. 15 seed, used to strike Duke down.

Can a No. 16 seed, in this case North Florida and Robert Morris who meet in a First Four game, create an official pattern and join the Blue Devils' slayers club? Probably not. It’s no fluke that the highest-seeded teams are 0-120 straight-up since the tournament expanded its field 30 years ago, and unprofitable to bet on the point-spread to boot.

Duke will have to confront its March Madness lower-conference woes before long anyway. No. 8 seed San Diego State is the highest ranked team that could go without being a part of the South’s revitalization project.

The Aztecs have enjoyed the tournament just fine, advancing in six straight years with only one upset loss and an overall 6-3 against the spread, 4-5 straight-up record. At 11-18-1 to the under on the season, San Diego State is the exact opposite to Duke.

It’s fourth in the nation in defense and 162nd in offense, per Pomeroy. A ferocious frontcourt of J.J. O’Brien and Skylar Spencer could match up well with Duke.

Laying three points in its first contest, San Diego State comes in as the biggest favorite in any of the No. 8 seed vs. No. 9 seed games. But it must travel three time zones to face No. 9 seed St. John’s in Charlotte, a red flag for any shrewd gambler.

Disappointment for St. John’s, and other teams in the South, isn’t limited to past tournament failures. Many called for the Red Storm to break out this season behind senior star D’Angelo Harrison, but they were a long shot to make the tournament as recently as February.

St. John’s was 2,000-to-1 in the future odds at Westgate Las Vegas Superbook before closing the regular season with seven wins in nine games, including outright upsets of Xavier and Georgetown, to revert to 500-to-1 and keep playing.

San Diego State went through rough patches too, including failing to cover in seven of eight games early in the season to get downgraded from their pricey 50-to-1 opening odds to win the national championship.

Aztecs and Storm fans may find it therapeutic to know Las Vegas labels Duke as the most vulnerable No. 1 seed. The Blue Devils’ plus-160 (risking $1 to win $1.60) is the shortest of their peers, implying a 30 percent chance to get out of the South.

The number may have diminished further with a real No. 4 seed in the bracket. The average price of the other No. 4 seeds to win the tournament is 63-to-1.

South representative Georgetown hangs at 200-to-1. The Hoyas are one of only two top-four seeded teams with a losing against the spread record — East No. 4 seed Louisville being the other — at 11-16-1 including 5-10 against other tournament teams.

History doesn’t line up with them either as they’re right with the other tortured souls of the South. Since the Roy Hibbert and Jeff Green-led 2007 Georgetown team reached the Final Four, it’s made the tournament five times and gotten bounced prematurely on every occasion with two losses that can surpass Duke’s infamous parlay of Mercer and Lehigh.

Georgetown dropped out to 14-point underdog Florida Gulf Coast in 2013 and 13.5-point underdog Ohio in 2010. The Hoyas would enter as significant underdogs to No. 5 seed Utah, which has fallen off drastically since the heyday of Rick Majerus with a single one-and-done showing in the last 10 years, in the round of 32.

Led by shifty senior Delon Wright, eighth in the country in Player Efficiency Rating, the Utes hung as low as 50-to-1 on future boards a month ago. But then they lost four of their final seven and failed to cover in their last six against fellow tournament teams.

Utah is now 60-to-1 to win the title with a season against the spread record of 19-11-1. Work stands in the way of the Utes and Hoyas using each other to get back on track.

No. 12 seed Stephen F. Austin upset VCU while getting six on the betting line in last year’s round of 64 to win its 29th in a row. The Lumberjacks deal with a near-identical spread, plus-6.5, against the Utes in an attempt to notch a 29th victory in their last 30 attempts this season.

No. 13 seed Eastern Washington, plus-7.5 versus Georgetown, blends in having never won a game in the tourney. The nation’s leading scorer with 23 points per game, sophomore Tyler Harvey, will look to break the spell.

On the bottom side of the bracket, Eastern Washington shares cousins in No. 6 seed SMU and No. 7 seed Iowa as longtime outsiders in the NCAAs.

The Hawkeyes, 0-3 both straight-up and against the spread in their last three berths, haven’t won a tournament game in 14 years. The Mustangs’ star, sophomore Nic Moore, hadn’t turned 1-years-old yet in 1993 the last time they made it.

SMU is clinging to a respectable 100-to-1 price to become champions, but were all the way down at 30-to-1 when the futures opened last year. The decision by Congolese point guard Emmanuel Mudiay, the No. 2 recruit in last year’s class and a surefire top-five NBA Draft pick, to forgo college struck SMU from the top of the board.

Some believe the Mustangs landed a gift first opponent against undeserving bubble-team UCLA but the Don Best Advantage power ratings, used by several sports books in town, digress. The Bruins, 3.5-point underdogs to the Mustangs, rank 20 spots ahead of Temple and Colorado State, the pair of teams most jilted by UCLA’s inclusion, despite going 4-7 against the spread versus other tournament teams.

No one can find any negative marks on No. 10 seed Davidson’s gambling résumé. The Wildcats, which get 2.5 points against Iowa, posted the nation’s best against the spread record at 22-6.

Picked to finish last in the Atlantic 10 before the season, Davidson paired the eighth most efficient offense in the country with the second lowest turnover rate to win the conference’s regular season crown. It’s also covered five of six tournament games dating back to the Steph Curry-led run to the Elite Eight in 2008.

That’s further than the most established mid-major program of the era, No. 2 seed Gonzaga, has gotten since the cell phones became widespread. The Bulldogs advanced to the region finals in their first of 16 consecutive years reaching the madness in 1999, but have been the face of March devastation in the new century.

Over the last 10 years, Gonzaga is 10-10 straight-up and 7-13 against the spread in the event. This is coach Mark Few’s best group yet — even better than the No. 1 seed from two years ago that lost to Wichita State as a 6.5-point favorite in the second round — both record-wise, 32-2, and metrics-wise.

Kentucky transfer Kyle Wiltjer and senior staple Kevin Pangos guided Gonzaga to posting the second highest point differential in the nation at 17 points per game. At plus-220 to win the region, which translates to a 24 percent shot, the Bulldogs and Blue Devils are close to a coin flip for the more likely victor.

No. 3 seed Iowa State, at plus-450 for a 14 percent chance, also belongs in the conversation. It’s the lowest priced third-choice of any of the four regions at 40-to-1 to win the title.

Iowa State is much like Duke with a wealth of offensive options headlined by Georges Niang, Monte Morris and Jameel McKay. It plays shoddy defense too, ranking 83rd in Pomeroy’s rankings for the worst standing among the 20 teams sitting at 100-to-1 or less. The Cyclones also haven’t notched a Final Four appearance since 1944.

But tournament experience fails as a scapegoat, at least in the South Region. The futility must end for some team.

Pick to win the region: Gonzaga at plus-220 Two years ago in this same series, I wrote that it was inevitable Gonzaga would one day reach the Final Four. But I didn’t think it was quite time. Now, I do. The Bulldogs have the most talented team in school history to go with a manageable region. If not now, it might be never.

South Region Picks Against The Spread (in order of confidence)

Note: It’s a losing long-term strategy to pick every game, but we’ll go for it in the blog anyway and track records through every round. Check back after Wednesday’s first four games for the final pick.

No. 9 seed Saint John’s plus-3.5 vs. No. 8 seed San Diego State

No. 4 seed Georgetown minus-6.5 vs. No. 13 seed Eastern Washington

No. 6 seed SMU minus-3 vs. No. 11 seed UCLA

No. 10 seed Davidson plus-2.5 vs. No. 7 seed Iowa

No. 15 seed North Dakota State plus-18 vs. No. 2 seed Gonzaga

No. 5 seed Utah minus-6 vs. No. 12 seed Stephen F. Austin

No. 16 seed Robert Morris plus-23 vs. No. 1 seed Duke

No. 16 seed North Florida minus-3 vs. No. 16 seed Robert Morris

No. 14 seed UAB plus-13.5 vs. No. 3 seed Iowa State

Case Keefer can be reached at 948-2790 or [email protected]. Follow Case on Twitter at twitter.com/casekeefer.