Bob Leverone / AP
North Carolina’s J.P. Tokoto (13) shoots against Louisville’s Mangok Mathiang (12) during the first half in the quarterfinals of the Atlantic Coast Conference tournament Thursday, March 12, 2015, in Greensboro, N.C.
Monday, March 16, 2015 | 2 a.m.
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Sports books don’t want to make it easy on gamblers during the biggest betting event of the year — the NCAA Tournament, which begins March 17 with four games. Bookmakers have plugged in and diligently reviewed the college basketball season to prepare the toughest final exam of point spreads and future odds.
“We’ve been looking at all the teams, getting our thoughts together,” Sunset Station sports book director Chuck Esposito said. “We’re getting everything ready to roll.”
What did he find?
Kentucky is the team to beat, but Esposito revealed a secret — a squad he thinks might make a better bet.
“I think Wisconsin is very, very good,” Esposito said. “I love the way they play, and I think (Frank) Kaminsky is one of the most talented kids you’ll find.”
Esposito offered advice on a team to avoid, too.
“I don’t think Duke is as physical as a lot of teams,” he said. “I’m anxious to see if they can get to the Sweet 16 or not. I think they’ll be tested after the first round, and we’ll see if they hold up or not.”
Don’t let the books outgun you on the tournament this year. Here is a cheat sheet of four marquee teams to bet on and four marquee teams to bet against.
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Gonzaga's Gary Bell Jr.
TEAMS TO BET
GONZAGA
Last year, Connecticut became the longest shot to win the tournament in decades because of an experienced core that played smothering defense and shot exceptionally well. Although far more heralded, Gonzaga looks like the closest relative in 2015.
The Zags also have the nation’s second-highest point differential behind Kentucky, with their two losses coming by a total of six points.
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Oklahoma guard Isaiah Cousins
TEAMS TO BET
OKLAHOMA
Even though they fell a game short of winning the Big 12 championship, the Sooners looked like the best team in the nation’s toughest conference for large stretches of the year. They are an attractive bet because they have no discernible weaknesses and boast an elite defense to pair with an elite player in junior Buddy Hield.
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Utah's Brandon Taylor
TEAMS TO BET
UTAH
The price should be right on the Utes, as they’ll enter the tournament discounted after a 2-5 against-the-spread run in the final month of the regular season. But bettors shouldn’t value the downturn more than Utah’s blistering 16-5-1 record against the spread through the first three months of the season.
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North Carolina's J.P. Tokoto
TEAMS TO BET
NORTH CAROLINA
Ranking in the nation’s top five in almost every meaningful rebounding statistic, the Tar Heels might be the tournament’s best team on the glass. It’s a quality that keeps them in games even when they’re at a talent disadvantage.
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Kentucky forward Karl-Anthony Towns
TEAMS TO FADE
KENTUCKY
If forced to pick one team to win the tournament, I’d jump on Kentucky faster than John Calipari can recruit another McDonald’s All-American. But that doesn’t mean the Wildcats necessarily are a great bet on a game-by-game basis, where they’re bound to draw so much action that sports books must inflate their betting lines. That’s one reason Kentucky went just 4-6 vs. the spread against tournament teams during the regular season.
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Kansas guard Frank Mason III
TEAMS TO FADE
KANSAS
Coach Bill Self’s most successful tournament teams have featured dominant frontcourts, something the Jayhawks sorely lack this season. They’re also not nearly as potent away from Allen Fieldhouse, with an unexceptional 9-7 straight-up, 8-8 against-the-spread record in neutral-site and road games.
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Villanova guard Darrun Hilliard II
TEAMS TO FADE
VILLANOVA
A pattern has developed regarding the Wildcats from Philadelphia. They overachieve in the regular season only to get overwhelmed in the postseason. Coach Jay Wright’s teams are 9-15 against the spread in the NCAA Tournament and have bowed out prematurely by getting upset in three of their past four appearances.
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Maryland forward Michal Cekovsky
TEAMS TO FADE
MARYLAND
The Terrapins have put together their best season since winning the national championship in 2002, aided largely by two frivolous factors — an uncharacteristically mediocre Big Ten conference and an unreal run of good luck. Maryland is a perfect 10-0 in games decided by six points or less, an impossible trend to sustain.
Utah State's Julion Pearre, front, shoots while covered by Wyoming's Derek Cooke Jr. during the first half of an NCAA college basketball game in the quarterfinal round of the Mountain West Conference tournament Thursday, March 12, 2015, in Las Vegas.
Don’t wait
Anyone waiting for the thinning of March Madness crowds in Las Vegas is wasting their time.
There’s no end in sight to sports books attracting their largest audience of the year for the NCAA Tournament, especially from Thursday to Sunday for the first two full rounds.
“It’s still getting bigger every year,” Sunset Station sports book director Chuck Esposito said. “You see more and more people coming out and more vacations planned around those first four days.”
The days of the Super Bowl and NCAA Tournament battling it out for the most prominent standing on the sports betting calendar are over. While the Super Bowl remains the biggest one-day event, hoops knocks out football when totaling the entire postseason.
So head to the sports book now. The lines aren’t getting any shorter.
“The atmosphere in our books, if you’re a sports fan and haven’t experienced it, is something you have to do,” Esposito said.
Case Keefer can be reached at 702-948-2790 or [email protected]. Follow Case on Twitter at twitter.com/casekeefer.
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