Vegas pick’em: NFL Week 15 winners against the spread

By Case Keefer (contact)

Published Thursday, Dec. 17, 2015 | 2 a.m.

Updated Saturday, Dec. 19, 2015 | 2:25 p.m.

For the first time this season, a game is completely removed from every betting board in Las Vegas as of early Thursday morning.

And it just might be the most important matchup of the week. The Houston Texans travel for an early kickoff Sunday against the Indianapolis Colts with first place in the AFC South up for grabs.

There’s no way to analyze it from a betting perspective, because there’s no betting line. It’s understandable with the lack of clarity involving both teams’ quarterback situations.

Colts back-up Matt Hasselbeck injured his ribs in last week’s loss at Jacksonville to join starter Andrew Luck on the injury report. Texans starter Brian Hoyer suffered the fifth concussion of his career in a loss to the New England Patriots.

The injuries mean it could be Houston’s T.J. Yates against Indianapolis’ Charlie Whitehurst for the divisional lead.

Indianapolis remains a slight favorite to win the division in the future odds at minus-150 (risking $1.50 to win $1) with Houston coming back at plus-180 (risking $1 to win $1.80).

Usually at least a sports book or two will post a point spread despite injuries, but not in this case. Bettors are stuck in a waiting pattern.

Talking Points will update when a line becomes available, but in the meantime, there are 15 other games to focus on. The blog’s season record picking every game against the spread improved to 111-90-7 after going 11-5 last week.

Check below for this week’s picks, separated as always into three confidence categories with corresponding records. Lines are the best currently available on the chosen side.

Plays (28-22-2)

Denver Broncos plus-6.5 at Pittsburgh Steelers As terrific as the Steelers’ offense has played, it isn’t producing at a historic clip. The Broncos are doing just that on the other side of the ball, with the fourth-best defense ever tracked by Football Outsiders’ DVOA ratings.

Detroit Lions plus-3 at New Orleans Saints New Orleans’ schedule has been forgiving over the last month with few matchups against top-flight wide receivers to test its horrendous secondary. In other words, Matthew Stafford and Calvin Johnson are poised to serve fantasy-football heartbreak and joy on Monday Night Football.

Chicago Bears plus-5.5 at Minnesota Vikings Too many points in a contest between evenly matched teams, as seen in their first meeting when Vikings kicker Blair Walsh made a game-winning field goal with no time left to give Minnesota a 23-20 victory. Bears outgained each of their last two opponents and were unlucky to go 0-2 straight-up in games they lost by a combined 10 points.

Leans (38-27)

Tampa Bay Buccaneers plus-3 at St. Louis Rams Todd Gurley is the Rams’ only weapon, and the rookie running back’s resurgence should end after one week. Tampa Bay has given up just 3.4 yards per rushing attempt, which rates second in the NFL.

Cincinnati Bengals minus-4.5 at San Francisco 49ers The Bengals are stocked with talent on offense, so quarterback A.J. McCarron is stepping into an advantageous situation as Andy Dalton’s fill-in. The Alabama graduate averaged 8.75 yards per attempt with two touchdowns in relief against a much tougher Pittsburgh defense last week.

San Diego Chargers minus-1.5 vs. Miami Dolphins No interest in backing a Dolphins team that’s been outgained in seven straight and now traveling more than 2,500 miles on a short week off of a Monday Night Football loss. The Chargers have at least shown some fight in only getting outgained by a combined 70 yards in losses to the Chiefs and Broncos the last two weeks.

New York Giants plus-6 vs. Carolina Panthers The Giants are desperate to keep pace locked into a three-way tie atop the NFC East, while the undefeated Panthers are in a comfortable position where they could give players intermittent rest. New York has only one loss of more than six points all season.

Atlanta Falcons plus-3 at Jacksonville Jaguars Betting market may have overreacted to the Falcons getting blown out by one of the best teams in the NFL last week, 38-0 at Carolina, while the Jaguars stomped one of the worst, 51-16 hosting Indianapolis. This game was a pick’em on the look-ahead line, so inclined to take the value with the Falcons.

Oakland Raiders plus-3.5 vs. Green Bay Packers Aaron Rodgers is the only factor, albeit a massive one, that gives Green Bay an edge over Oakland. And the Raiders have incrementally improved their pass defense, which is now up to 14th in NFL in giving up only 6.7 yards per attempt.

Guesses (45-41-2)

New York Jets minus-3 at Dallas Cowboys Number will rise before kickoff, so taking the shorter asking price with the Jets while it’s available. The Cowboys are now 1-8 straight-up, 2-7 against the spread without Tony Romo this season.

Buffalo Bills pick’em at Washington Redskins On a per-play basis, the Redskins are one of the NFL’s six least efficient teams by giving up 5.9 yards to gaining 5.2. Must go with the team significantly better on both sides, as the Bills average 5.6 yards per play while limiting opponents to 5.5.

Arizona Cardinals minus-3.5 at Philadelphia Eagles Eagles’ two-game winning streak is a mirage as they’ve gained only 4.7 yards per play in winning by a combined 10 points. Arizona’s defense, fourth in DVOA, also might be the best they’ve seen this season.

Tennessee Titans plus-14.5 at New England Patriots Patriots remain too beaten up to feel confident laying more than two touchdowns. They were only 10-point favorites in this spot last week before they beat the Texans 27-6 as 4.5-point favorites and the Titans lost to the Jets 30-8 as 8-point underdogs.

Seattle Seahawks minus-14.5 vs. Cleveland Browns Seahawks are the top team in the league by Football Outsiders’ weighted DVOA, which puts extra emphasis on teams’ recent performances. They’ve also traditionally fared well as a big favorite, covering five of their last six when laying double digits.

Baltimore Ravens plus-7.5 vs. Kansas City Chiefs Perhaps the Ravens’ greatest shortcoming is a tendency to give up big pass plays downfield. Although he’s having one of the best years of his career, Chiefs quarterback Alex Smith still never throws downfield.

Indianapolis Colts minus-1.5 vs. Houston Texans Must look the other way when more than two-thirds of the action is coming in on a team as poor as the Texans. Indianapolis has beaten Houston in six straight since Chuck Pagano took over, and the coach has gone 6-1 straight-up and 5-1-1 against the spread for his career against the AFC South rivals.

Case Keefer can be reached at 702-948-2790 or [email protected]. Follow Case on Twitter at twitter.com/casekeefer.