Vegas pick’em: NFL Week 9 winners against the spread

By Case Keefer (contact)

Thursday, Nov. 5, 2015 | 2 a.m.

Betting on the Bengals every week has been the NFL season’s best bankroll booster.

If a bettor had started the season with a $100 wager on Cincinnati to win its first game and rolled over the winnings every week, he or she would now be up $4,476. And that’s only on the moneyline.

The profit comes out a couple hundred more if the same strategy were used on the point spread, where the Bengals have posted a 6-0-1 record. The gambling champion to this point of the season kicks off Week 9 tonight with the division-rival Cleveland Browns.

Cincinnati is laying a touchdown or more for the first time this season as a 10.5-point favorite over Cleveland. It’s one of 13 games those of us who weren’t wise enough to blindly and consistently back the Bengals, who have dropped from 40-to-1 to 10-to-1 to win the Super Bowl, are grinding to try to figure out.

Talking Points is here to help coming off a season-best 10-3-1 record picking every game against the spread last week. The season total now stands at 63-50-6.

Check below for Week 9 picks, separated as always into three separate confidence categories with attached records. Lines are the best on a chosen side currently available in Las Vegas.

Plays (19-10-2)

St. Louis Rams plus-2.5 at Minnesota Vikings Exercising last week’s promise of utilizing upcoming matchups to line up against the fraudulent Vikings, which have far outperformed any statistical expectation with a record of 6-1 against the spread, 5-2 straight-up. Minnesota has major shortcomings on offense waiting to be exposed by St. Louis, the only team ranking in the top five in both pass defense and rush defense by Football Outsiders’ DVOA ratings.

Buffalo Bills minus-3 vs. Miami Dolphins It’s not getting acknowledged enough that Miami’s signs of progress came against two of the five worst teams in the league in Tennessee and Houston. Buffalo’s personnel should closer resemble the squad that beat Miami 41-14 last month than the team that’s lost two straight to Jacksonville and Cincinnati after a perfectly timed bye week allowed many members of a banged-up roster to heal.

Pittsburgh Steelers minus-4 vs. Oakland Raiders Value extracted on Oakland the last couple weeks has gotten zapped with the masses catching on and driving this spread down from opening as high as minus-6. Despite losing Le’Veon Bell for the year, the Steelers’ offense only projects to get better after Ben Roethlisberger figured to struggled coming back off a knee injury in last week’s 16-10 loss to the Bengals.

Leans (22-17-3)

Tampa Bay Buccaneers plus-2.5 vs. New York Giants Giants’ defense is regressing rapidly as it has given up nearly 7 yards per play the last three weeks despite facing an overall middling set of offenses in Philadelphia, Dallas and New Orleans. Tampa Bay’s offense is going the other way with Jameis Winston averaging 8.8 yards per attempt without an interception the last three games while Doug Martin ranks as the NFL’s fourth-leading rusher.

Carolina Panthers plus-2.5 vs. Green Bay Packers The idea that the Packers’ offense will get a respite after having to face the Broncos’ top-rated pass defense last week is misguided. The Panthers have limited opponents to 5.3 yards per passing attempt, just barely less effective than the Broncos’ 5 yards per attempt.

Philadelphia Eagles minus-2.5 at Dallas Cowboys The barbs against Tony Romo have rightfully dissipated with the Cowboys going 0-5 straight-up, 1-4 against the spread without him in the lineup. And there’s no reason to start backing Dallas until he’s back, certainly not against a Philadelphia defense holding strong at No. 3 in DVOA.

Guesses (22-23)

Cincinnati Bengals minus-10.5 vs. Cleveland Browns Browns mustered all of 107 total yards and five first downs with Johnny Manziel under center against the Bengals last year. Led by cornerbacks Dre Kirkpatrick and Adam Jones, Cincinnati’s secondary is playing even better this year and Cleveland is completely unable to run the ball with 3.4 yards per rushing attempt.

Tennessee Titans plus-9 at New Orleans Saints Titans might become the latest in long line of teams energized by a new coach, as interim head Mike Mularkey can’t possibly be any worse than the departed Ken Whisenhunt, who committed weekly blunders. Mularkey’s 25-23 lifetime against the spread record as a coach glistens next to the 6-16-1 mark Whisenhunt accumulated in Tennessee.

Denver Broncos minus-4.5 at Indianapolis Colts The most encouraging part of the Broncos’ 27-10 upset victory over the Packers wasn’t Peyton Manning’s 11.7 yards per passing attempt as much as the running game’s 4.7 yards per attempt. C.J. Anderson and Ronnie Hillman could get further turned around against an Indianapolis defensive front that started the season strong but has dwindled to allowing 4.7 yards per rush the last three weeks.

New York Jets minus-6.5 vs. Jacksonville Jaguars Neither Ryan Fitzpatrick’s thumb injury nor the Jets’ 14-point loss in Oakland is convincing enough for the point spread to pass below a touchdown as New York was minus-8 on the early line last week. Might be inclined to consider improving Jacksonville if number climbed back over a touchdown.

New England Patriots minus-14 vs. Washington Redskins Washington has somehow gone 2-1 against the spread, 1-2 straight-up with an overtime loss in its last three contests despite getting outgained by nearly 175 yards per game and more than 2 yards per play. The Redskins’ futility — they rate second-to-last to San Francisco with a minus-0.9 yards per play differential — calls for another reference back to last week and the rule to back the Patriots when in doubt.

San Diego Chargers minus-4 vs. Chicago Bears With only a minus-32 point differential on the season, the Chargers are moderately unlucky to have gone 2-6 straight-up. The Bears more than double the Chargers’ margin at minus-62 despite having played one less game.

San Francisco 49ers plus-7 vs. Atlanta Falcons Ninety percent or more of the action will fall on a statistically mediocre team traveling from Eastern time zone to Pacific with a spread bloated a field goal higher than where it opened. That means there’s only one side to look at even if said side is quarterbacked by Blaine Gabbert, who’s 5-22 straight-up and 11-15-1 against the spread as a starter.

Case Keefer can be reached at 702-948-2790 or [email protected]. Follow Case on Twitter at twitter.com/casekeefer.