Vegas pick’em: NFL Week 6 winners against the spread

By Case Keefer (contact)

Thursday, Oct. 15, 2015 | 2 a.m.

The Baltimore Ravens would have carried long preseason odds to remain as the NFL’s lone team battling futility in week 6.

They aren't the only team without a victory — anti-congratulations goes out to the Detroit Lions on that count — but the Ravens dwell alone in having yet to cover a point spread. Baltimore is 0-4-1 against the spread with the push coming in a 24-21 overtime victory over the Pittsburgh Steelers two weeks ago.

It’s a betting board fall from grace for a franchise that hasn’t posted a losing season versus the Las Vegas number since before coach John Harbaugh took over in 2008. The problem peaks Sunday afternoon when Baltimore plays at San Francisco in a Super Bowl rematch no one cares about.

Only three years removed from the two franchises battling in the Har-bowl, the Ravens and 49ers clash to stay relevant in a contest between 1-4 straight-up teams that will draw light betting volume from the general public.

Talking Points doesn’t mind the stakes; the blog analyzes and picks every NFL matchup weekly. And so far the results have been passable.

Although a 6-7-1 performance last week put the overall record at 37-37-3 against the spread, the top-rated picks have graded out well. The .500 record is entirely the result of struggles in the “guesses” section.

Check below to find all of the week 6 picks, separated as always into three descending confidence categories with attached records. Lines are the best currently available in Las Vegas on the chosen side.

Plays (13-5-1)

Jacksonville Jaguars plus-1 vs. Houston Texans Overvalued perception of recent history might be the only explanation for this point spread. Houston is the second-worst team in the league by Football Outsiders’ DVOA metric and doesn’t deserve to lay even a single point on the road to any opponent.

Buffalo Bills plus-3.5 vs. Cincinnati Bengals Cincinnati is the NFL’s unforeseen leader in averaging 9.3 yards per pass attempt. Less surprising is Buffalo ranking fifth in the NFL in giving up only 6.1 yards per pass attempt, which is far better than anything the Bengals have seen this season. Willing to take the juicy price — Buffalo was minus-1.5 in last week’s line on this game — in a moderate gamble that quarterback Tyrod Taylor fights through a knee injury to play.

Detroit Lions minus-3 vs. Chicago Bears Betting market has drastically overreacted to Detroit’s 42-17 home loss last week to Arizona, which looks like the best team in the NFC, considering this point spread was Chicago plus-6.5 before the game. Let’s not forget that two weeks ago the Lions arguably deserved to beat the Seahawks while the Bears were being discussed as an 0-16 candidate.

Leans (14-12-1)

New York Jets minus-6 vs. Washington Redskins Washington quarterback Kirk Cousins has thrown more interceptions, six, than touchdowns, five, despite the benefit of playing behind one of the league’s best offensive lines and against a middling slate of defenses so far. New York should feast with a defense ranked second in DVOA that’s returning feared pass rusher Sheldon Richardson.

Pittsburgh Steelers plus-3.5 vs. Arizona Cardinals With only three turnovers on the season, Steelers aren’t as careless with the ball as Cardinals’ last two blowout victims, which combined for nine giveaways to Arizona. Pittsburgh is 5-2 straight-up, 5-1-1 against the spread as a home underdog under coach Mike Tomlin.

Baltimore Ravens minus-2.5 at San Francisco 49ers Their records might be identical, but the Ravens’ minus-14 point differential is nearly five times better than the 49ers’ league-worst minus-65. That equals out to a Pythagorean expectation of 2.6 wins for the cursed Ravens, meaning with average luck they would be laying more points in this spot.

New Orleans Saints plus-3.5 vs. Atlanta Falcons Falcons have barely escaped in winning by six points or less against every decent team they’ve played this season. Saints still skew more towards decent than dreadful like Falcons’ victims Houston and Brandon Weeden-led Dallas, especially at home against a familiar division rival.

Kansas City Chiefs plus-4 at Minnesota Vikings Sensing thin value on the Chiefs given that this line was only 2.5 points last week. The loss of Jamaal Charles is troubling, but not enough to push beyond Minnesota minus-3 with both teams producing an identical -0.4 yards per play differential.

New England Patriots minus-7 at Indianapolis Colts Not buying Patriots’ revenge-on-the-Colts angle, which implies they weren’t trying their hardest in starting the season 4-0 straight-up and against the spread while pummeling opponents by more than 18 points per game. But sold on Bill Belichick going undefeated both straight-up and against the spread in four games against Chuck Pagano’s Colts teams, winning by an average of 29 points and covering by an average of 22 points.

Guesses (10-20)

Miami Dolphins plus-2.5 at Tennessee Titans Not far-fetched to think still talent-rich Dolphins will respond to interim coach Dan Campbell. He may lack any head coaching experience but can’t be at much of a disadvantage against Tennessee counterpart Ken Whisenhunt, whose team seems to be turning on him after indefensible conservatism helped cause two straight close losses.

Carolina Panthers plus-7 at Seattle Seahawks Rested Carolina is slightly undervalued because the focus has been on the weak teams it’s beaten to start 4-0 straight-up instead of how it’s beaten them. The Panthers have led by more than 10 points late in the fourth quarter of every game to make the only blemish on their 3-1 against the spread record a backdoor cover against the Saints.

Denver Broncos minus-4 at Cleveland Browns Feels like the week Denver coach Gary Kubiak’s continued doggedness to the running game pays off with Cleveland last in the NFL in rushing defense per DVOA. Also not seeing how Cleveland quarterback Josh McCown builds on two-game tear — he has a combined 813 yards and four touchdowns to no interceptions —against a Denver defense leading the league in giving up 5.3 yards per pass attempt.

San Diego Chargers plus-10.5 at Green Bay Packers Not rushing to play against Aaron Rodgers at Lambeau Field, where he’s 48-11 straight-up and 37-17-1 against the spread for his career, but bookmakers are slowly catching up to undefeated-versus-the-number Green Bay. The only reason the Packers covered minus-10 in a 24-10 victory over the Rams last week was the visiting team’s 1-for-4 red zone performance that included two interceptions.

Philadelphia Eagles minus-4 vs. New York Giants For the second straight week, giving a vote of confidence to the Eagles’ defense. New York hasn’t faced a defense rated as highly as Philadelphia, seventh in DVOA, yet this season.

Case Keefer can be reached at 702-948-2790 or [email protected]. Follow Case on Twitter at twitter.com/casekeefer.