Vegas pick’em: NFL Week 3 winners against the spread

By Case Keefer (contact)

Thursday, Sept. 24, 2015 | 2 a.m.

NFL bettors must perform a juggling routine early in the season to not overreact to a small sample size on the field while also making use of the valuable information the games each week provide.

Last week, Talking Points dropped the balls in a couple of situations. I sat down to write the Sun’s weekly column analyzing every NFL game with plans to back the Pittsburgh Steelers, Minnesota Vikings and Green Bay Packers.

But thoughts of the 49ers’ 20-3 crushing of the Vikings as 2.5-point underdogs in week 1 swayed my position on the first two games. Then, in an attempt to not overreact to the Seahawks’ 34-31 overtime loss at the Rams as 3.5-point favorites, I backed the two-time defending NFC Champions for another week.

They were all the wrong choices, as the Vikings beat the Lions 26-16 as 2.5-point favorites almost as convincingly as the Steelers stymied the 49ers 43-18 as 6.5-point favorites. The Seahawks were a more forgivable selection, as they lost 27-17 catching 3.5 points to the Green Bay Packers on Sunday Night Football.

It’s an illustration of the early-season challenges gamblers face, but in no way a complaint. Not when, all things considered, Talking Points has started the NFL season red-hot.

The blog is 17-14-1 against the spread picking every game, though far better in our top two categories. The aforementioned three losses all came in the “guesses” segment, where a 2-9-1 record is weighing down a scorching performance in the official plays and leans.

The goal is to stay above 50 percent for the year overall and post profitability on the plays.

Check below for this week’s NFL picks, listed in rough order of confidence. Lines, as always, are the best available in Las Vegas on the chosen side.

Plays (7-1)

Houston Texans minus-6.5 vs. Tampa Bay Buccaneers Taking next to nothing out of Jameis Winston and the Tampa Bay offense’s successful showing against New Orleans, which almost surely fields the worst defense in the NFL. Houston has rallied back into both of its games, losing by a touchdown despite digging early holes and being one of only nine teams with a turnover margin of minus-2 or worse.

Philadelphia Eagles plus-2.5 at New York Jets Must fire on rare opportunity to buy this low on a team that had Super Bowl buzz two weeks ago while simultaneously selling high on an opponent that came into the season as an afterthought. The Jets have looked terrific in starting the season 2-0 straight-up and against the spread on the road, but not enough to merit the 6-point swing from where this line sat last week.

St. Louis Rams plus-1.5 vs. Pittsburgh Steelers Ben Roethlisberger won’t have the time to carve up the Rams’ defense, which already has eight sacks on the year. St. Louis coach Jeff Fisher is the patron saint of covering as a home underdog, going 33-19 against the spread in the role throughout his career.

Miami Dolphins minus-2.5 vs. Buffalo Bills These two AFC East rivals appear so evenly matched that anything less than a field goal is a bet-on for whichever team is playing at home. Ryan Tannehill is one of the NFL’s most poised quarterbacks under pressure, meaning he’s equipped to handle Buffalo’s exotic blitz packages.

Leans (8-4)

Baltimore Ravens minus-3 vs. Cincinnati Bengals Let’s play hypotheticals for a second and say Steve Smith Sr. doesn’t mangle two potential game-winning touchdowns in each of the first two weeks. The Ravens are inches away from boasting the same 2-0 record as the Bengals, which would have the betting market flinging action in their direction and sports books at least adding the .5-point hook in this AFC North showdown.

Dallas Cowboys plus-2 vs. Atlanta Falcons With defense prone to far more year-to-year deviation than offense, there’s an unforeseen franchise or two that emerges with one of the NFL’s best stop units every season. Evidence hints Dallas, which limited Philadelphia to 173 fewer yards on the road than Atlanta did at home, could make up for considerable offensive casualties by filling that recurring role.

Jacksonville Jaguars plus-14 at New England Patriots Performance indicates that Jacksonville could be trending out of the NFL’s bottom tier this season, but reputation keeps it priced as the worst team in the league. New England has failed to cover in its last four games as a double-digit favorite.

Washington Redskins plus-4 at New York Giants Washington has played at a conspicuously higher level than New York through two weeks with near even offensive production — the Giants gain 5.4 yards per play to the Redskins’ 5.3 — and far better defensive efficiency — giving up 4.6 yards per play to New York’s 6.1. Here’s a hunch that it’s not a fluke.

Detroit Lions plus-3.5 vs. Denver Broncos Last week’s fourth-quarter awakening to beat the Chiefs shouldn’t alleviate mounting concerns about the Broncos’ offense. Denver is gaining a league-low 3.7 yards per play, a figure that should scream it’s not worthy of giving points on the road.

Guesses (2-9-1)

Cleveland Browns minus-3.5 vs. Oakland Raiders Browns’ decision to go back to the proven mediocre-at-best Josh McCown after Johnny Manziel showed promise in leading them to a win is baffling. But it’s not as troubling as the Raiders losing their last 17 straight when playing in Eastern Standard time, including going 5-12 against the spread.

New Orleans Saints plus-7 at Carolina Panthers No choice but to snag the full touchdown offered at CG Technology sports books, among the only shops with a line on this game because of Drew Brees’ uncertain status. Even if Brees doesn’t play, Carolina is ill-suited to lay seven behind an anemic offense gaining 4.4 yards per play.

Kansas City Chiefs plus-7 at Green Bay Packers The Chiefs have 10 days to prepare for this Monday Night Football affair while the Packers rank right with the Cowboys as the most significantly injured team in the NFL. Kansas City is 12-6 against the spread on the road since coach Andy Reid took over.

Arizona Cardinals minus-6.5 vs. San Francisco 49ers Through two weeks, the Cardinals have been the best team in the league by both point differential, at plus-37, and Football Outsiders’ DVOA ratings. It’s scary to think their offense could improve further this week with reports indicating they may take the leash off of what looks like their best running back, rookie David Johnson.

Indianapolis Colts minus-3 at Tennessee Titans Taking the major discount — last week’s look-ahead line was minus-4.5 — with a Colts team that’s beaten and covered in all six games against the Titans under quarterback Andrew Luck with an average score of 28-17. Tennessee doesn’t have the defensive personnel to attack Indianapolis the same way as Buffalo or the New York Jets.

San Diego Chargers plus-2.5 at Minnesota Vikings San Diego’s dead-even duel at Cincinnati last week — both teams gained 6.3 yards per play but the Chargers had one more turnover to lose 24-19 as a 3-point underdog — was every bit as impressive as Minnesota’s 26-16 victory over Detroit as a 2.5-point favorite at home. Prefer to look towards over 44.5 points more than anything with both offenses clicking.

Chicago Bears plus-15 at Seattle Seahawks Have yet to see anything from the Seahawks to merit them laying this many points — even if it’s against Jimmy Clausen. When 90 percent of the action will fall on a team giving more than two touchdowns, looking the other way is the only suitable option.

Case Keefer can be reached at 702-948-2790 or [email protected]. Follow Case on Twitter at twitter.com/casekeefer.