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Vegas pick’em: NFL Week 13 winners against the spread

Nov. 29: NFL Games

AP

Washington Redskins quarterback Kirk Cousins breaks the plane of the goal line with the ball, top, for a touchdown on quarterback keeper during the first half of an NFL football game against the New York Giants in Landover, Md., Sunday, Nov. 29, 2015. (AP Photo/Alex Brandon)

Updated Saturday, Dec. 5, 2015 | 2:26 p.m.

11/29/15: NFL Games

Miami Dolphins strong safety Reshad Jones (20) deflects a pass by New York Jets' Ryan Fitzpatrick (14) during the first half of an NFL football game Sunday, Nov. 29, 2015, in East Rutherford, N.J. (AP Photo/Bill Kostroun) Launch slideshow »

Week 13: Chiefs at Raiders

Which side would you take in Chiefs at Raiders? (Poll consensus year to date: 7-3-2)
Chiefs minus-3 — 55.3%
Raiders plus-3 — 44.7%

This poll is closed, see Full Results »

Note: This is not a scientific poll. The results reflect only the opinions of those who chose to participate.

As many as eight out of the 16 home teams in week 13 will go off of the betting board taking points.

Based on the season to date, all of them deserve strong consideration from gamblers. Home underdogs are mounting a renaissance in 2015.

Teams in the role haven’t finished the season with a profitable against the spread record in the last eight years, but they’re in a position to do so now. Home underdogs are covering at higher than a 55 percent clip at 30-24-2 against the spread this season.

They’re 23-33 straight-up, with the Washington Redskins’ 20-14 victory over the New York Giants and the Denver Broncos’ 30-24 overtime spoiling of the New England Patriots’ perfect season last week adding to the win column.

Talking Points missed on both of those contests during a hemorrhaging, year-worst 6-10 against the spread performance picking every game last week. The record for the year still stands at 90-79-7, above our goal for staying above 50 percent given the difficulty of forcing a wager on every game.

Check below for full picks from week 13 separated into three confidence categories with individual records attached. Lines are the best currently available on the chosen side.

Plays (25-19-2)

Buffalo Bills minus-3 vs. Houston Texans Four of the Bills’ six losses, including both during their recent two-game slide, have come against teams in the top three of Football Outsiders’ DVOA ratings. Texans have fallen into holes of at least two touchdowns in three of their five road games this season.

Oakland Raiders plus-3 vs. Kansas City Chiefs Chiefs have won and covered in five straight, but haven’t played an offense as efficient as the Raiders during the streak as Ben Roethlisberger was injured when they played the Steelers. Oakland quarterback Derek Carr ranks in the NFL’s top 10 in touchdown passes, yards per attempt and passer rating.

Pittsburgh Steelers minus-7 vs. Indianapolis Colts Jump on the 7-point line now as it’s probably going to rise in the likely event Roethlisberger is cleared to play. The Steelers are averaging an obscene 7.4 yards per play over their last three games — a half-yard better than any other NFL team.

Leans (29-24)

Tampa Bay Buccaneers minus-1.5 vs. Atlanta Falcons Tampa Bay outgained Indianapolis by more than a yard per play in last week’s loss, making it four straight games the Buccaneers have accomplished that efficiency. They’re undervalued by the betting market.

St. Louis Rams plus-6 vs. Arizona Cardinals The Rams shouldn’t get basically the same amount of points at home as they did on the road in week 4 when they defeated the Cardinals 24-22 as 7-point underdogs. The Cardinals have shown some regression, especially in giving up a career-high in passing yards to Blaine Gabbert in last week’s 19-13 win as 8-point favorites at San Francisco.

Seattle Seahawks pick’em at Minnesota Vikings Wins and losses are the only area where the Vikings rate out ahead of the Seahawks, as the latter even has an 8-point superior point differential despite suffering two more defeats. The Seahawks’ tendency for late-season surges is no coincidence.

New York Jets minus-2 at New York Giants The Giants are one of five NFL teams giving up 0.7 yards more per play than they gain despite facing what Football Outsiders rates as the second-easiest schedule so far. They’re a bet-against for now.

Chicago Bears minus-7 vs. San Francisco 49ers Extra three days of rest off of a Thanksgiving game is a major advantage for a team as beaten up as the Bears. The 17-13 victory over the Packers as 7.5-point underdogs is just as beneficial, as Chicago is now only one game out of the wild-card with a clear motivation edge over hopeless San Francisco.

Dallas Cowboys plus-4.5 at Washington Redskins Can’t trust Washington, which are one of the top 10 teams in the NFL in variance per Football Outsiders. The Redskins haven’t covered as a favorite since week 2 of last season.

Guesses (36-36-2)

Philadelphia Eagles plus-10 at New England Patriots No interest in laying double-digits with a team as wounded as New England, which has nearly 20 players on the injury report headlined by tight end Rob Gronkowski. The Patriots are only 6-8 against the spread over the last two years when Gronkowski doesn’t play.

Green Bay Packers minus-3 at Detroit Lions Despite their remarkable turnaround in a three-game winning and covering streak off of a bye week, the Lions remain in the NFL’s bottom 10 by giving up 7.4 yards per pass attempt. There might not be a better chance to buy low on Aaron Rodgers, who’s covered in 61 percent of his career starts.

San Diego Chargers plus-5 vs. Denver Broncos Ninety percent of the bets project to come on a road team with a mediocre offense off of their biggest win of the season. That situation screams to take the home underdog.

Miami Dolphins minus-4 vs. Baltimore Ravens New Matt Schaub and Javorius Allen-led Ravens offense looked barely passable against the Browns. The Dolphins are at least a step closer to a real defense, having given up only 5.4 yards per play in their last three games.

Jacksonville Jaguars plus-2.5 at Tennessee Titans Not a profitable approach to lay points with one of the worst teams in the NFL. Jaguars have covered last three as an underdog.

New Orleans Saints plus-7 vs. Carolina Panthers Betting against the Panthers is undesirable but they were only 3.5-point favorites in this game last week, so the value can’t be argued. The Saints haven’t given this many points at home in the Superdome since 2005.

Cincinnati Bengals minus-9.5 at Cleveland Browns Browns are not a home underdog worth entertaining. This is arguably the best team in the NFL — Bengals rank No. 1 in DVOA — against the worst — Browns are last in the NFL in giving up a yard more per play than they gain.

Case Keefer can be reached at 702-948-2790 or [email protected]. Follow Case on Twitter at twitter.com/casekeefer.

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