Vegas pick ’em: NFL week 14 winners against the spread

By Case Keefer (contact)

Thursday, Dec. 4, 2014 | 2 a.m.

Football fans’ high from last week’s collection of closely contested matchups with playoff implications should wear off this Sunday if betting lines are any indication.

Week 14 is heavy on mismatches with five games featuring a spread of more than a touchdown, which ties for the most in a single slate this year. Four sides are currently double-digit underdogs, a record high for the 2014 season.

Any bettor who’s subscribed to the old theory of betting blindly on any double-digit underdog in the NFL has lot this season. The biggest dogs are just 6-8-1 against the spread this year, with just one outright victory when the Cowboys beat plus-10 to topple the Seahawks 30-23 in week 6.

The Falcons, Bills, Panthers and Buccaneers could look to join the Cowboys Sunday. While the last three are all bouncing between 9.5- and 10-point underdogs in their respective matchups, the Falcons are plus-12.5 for their Monday Night Football trip to Green Bay.

Both teams were winners for Talking Points last week, when the pick’em posted another winning week at 9-7 against the spread. The cumulative record for the year picking every game now stands at 100-89-3.

That’s well within my goal of anything above 50 percent, a standing I’ll look to solidify with this week’s lackluster slate.

Check below for week 14 picks, separated into three categories with individual records as always. Lines are the best currently available price on the chosen side in Las Vegas.

Plays (22-23)

Pittsburgh Steelers plus-3.5 at Cincinnati Bengals The hook flat-out makes this a flawed line, as the Steelers are the better team by most statistical measures. Pittsburgh is somewhat comfortably ahead of Cincinnati in Football Outsiders’ DVOA ratings, at No. 13 to No. 17.

New York Jets plus-6.5 at Minnesota Vikings Minnesota doesn’t have the passing game to attack New York’s leaky secondary. Vikings can’t count on returning two blocked field goals for a touchdown every week.

Buffalo Bills plus-10 at Denver Broncos Leading the NFL with 48 sacks, Buffalo is capable of providing enough pressure to fluster Peyton Manning. The same Bills’ front is also giving up just 3.9 yards per rush attempt, meaning they should slow down scorching C.J. Anderson.

Leans (43-28-1)

Atlanta Falcons plus-12.5 at Green Bay Packers Couldn’t possibly find a better sell-high spot than a team suddenly favored to win the Super Bowl after knocking off darling Patriots. Without a couple coaching miscues, Atlanta would be entering this game on a five-game winning streak.

Baltimore Ravens plus-3 at Miami Dolphins Steam on Ravens has 3-point line gradually disappearing from betting boards. Take the field goal with the better team — No. 4 in DVOA against No. 6 — while it’s still available.

Philadelphia Eagles minus-1 vs. Seattle Seahawks Lincoln Financial Field has presented one of the best home-field advantages this season as the Eagles are 6-0 straight-up, 5-1 against the spread at the venue. They’re also now 4-1 straight-up and against the spread with an improving offense since Mark Sanchez took over.

Chicago Bears plus-3.5 vs. Dallas Cowboys Losers of four out of five against the spread, it’s become apparent the betting market — again on Dallas at an 80 percent chip — has overvalued the Cowboys. The Bears haven’t gone into a game as this big of a home underdog since a 2011 meeting with the defending Super Bowl champion Packers.

Washington Redskins plus-3 vs. St. Louis Rams Washington was more competitive with Colt McCoy at the helm against Indianapolis last week than the 49-27 final indicates, getting outgained by only 62 yards. Not sold on the Rams’ 52-0 blowout of the Raiders making them a juggernaut entitled to laying points on the road.

New England Patriots minus-3.5 at San Diego Chargers Concerns over San Diego’s pass defense far from dissipate after Chargers came back to beat Ravens 34-33 despite Joe Flacco throwing for 225 yards on 19-for-31 passing. Tom Brady should light up secondary ranking 30th in the NFL against the pass according to DVOA.

Indianapolis Colts minus-3.5 at Cleveland Browns While Brian Hoyer has thrown one touchdown to six interceptions over the last three games, Andrew Luck’s ratio has been eight touchdowns to two interceptions. Easy to overlook Indianapolis’ 9-3 against the spread record, which is the best in the NFL.

Guesses (36-38-2)

Detroit Lions minus-9.5 vs. Tampa Bay Buccaneers Calvin Johnson got back into his flow with 11 receptions for 146 yards and two touchdowns last week. Don’t see the Buccaneers causing him much disruption.

Tennessee Titans plus-1 vs. New York Giants There’s hardly a case to make for either team as they’re both 1-7 straight-up, 2-6 against the spread in their last eight games. But Tennessee is at home, and ahead of New York in both offense and defense by yards per play.

Houston Texans minus-4.5 at Jacksonville Jaguars Since reaching the NFL’s rock-bottom three years ago, the Jaguars haven’t handled success well. In the game after a victory, they are just 2-8-1 against the spread.

Carolina Panthers plus-10 at New Orleans Saints Healthier Cam Newton could single-handedly keep Panthers in the game against a New Orleans defense allowing an NFL-worst 6.1 yards per play. Not ready to give double digits with a team that defensively helpless.

Kansas City Chiefs plus-1.5 at Arizona Cardinals Jamaal Charles is poised to finish off another season hot starting with a matchup against a regressing rush defense fresh off of giving up more than 5.5 yards per carry to middling Steven Jackson.

Oakland Raiders plus-8 vs. San Francisco 49ers San Francisco has scored more than 20 points exactly once in its last six games, making it hard to trust giving more than a touchdown. Teams coming off blowout losses have strong history of covering their next time out.

Case Keefer can be reached at 948-2790 or [email protected]. Follow Case on Twitter at twitter.com/casekeefer.