Week 13 NFL picks and game of the week for the Sun’s handicapping contest

By Case Keefer (contact)

Saturday, Nov. 29, 2014 | 2 a.m.

The saying “Super Bowl preview” has gone the way of “defense wins championships,” or “what happens in Vegas, stays in Vegas.”

It’s a liberally used cliché that rarely proves accurate. Every NFL regular season, pundits are quick to heave the title upon any game between two of the best teams from separate conferences despite the overwhelming improbability of a February rematch.

Since the NFL expanded to its current playoff format in 1990, only six Super Bowl pairings have reprised a regular-season matchup. Interestingly, the New England Patriots have taken part in all three since the turn of the century.

Many are ready to pencil them in for a fourth in 2014, as AFC-leading New England travels to NFC power Green Bay as 3-point underdogs Sunday afternoon. It’s the game of the week in the Sun’s handicapping contest as all three sportswriters used one their six picks against the spread — available in full at the bottom of the page — on New England at Green Bay.

While unlikely to preview anything, it’s correct to describe the game as the most likely Super Bowl pairing. The Westgate Las Vegas Superbook currently has the Packers and Patriots as the favorites at plus-120 to win the NFC and AFC, respectively.

Calculate while accounting for the house’s hold, and the probability of a Super Bowl 31 rematch — one of two championships to ever push when the Packers beat the Patriots 35-21 as 14-point favorites — is 11 percent. That’s far ahead of any other potential matchup.

Bettors are nodding their heads because they’ve never stayed from either Green Bay or New England this season. The two have come into almost every game as the more bet-on side, and when they haven’t, gamblers have mostly left empty-handed.

The betting market penned New England’s demise ahead of a week 5 home game against Cincinnati, which closed as 2.5-point favorites. The Patriots canned the Bengals from Gillette Stadium, 43-17.

Likewise, the Eagles drew action ahead of a trip to Green Bay two weeks ago and went down to plus-4.5 from an opening number of 6. The Packers more than handled the Eagles, winning 53-20 in a game where they led 30-6 at halftime.

In the money race between arguably the league’s two most publicly backed teams, New England is out to an early lead. The Packers opened as a 3.5-point favorite before the number trimmed as quickly as Tom Brady’s beard.

A line of more than a field goal never made much sense on the surface. Oddsmakers’ power ratings place New England as the first or second best team in the NFL, with Green Bay right behind at second or third.

Don Best Advantage, for instance, has the Broncos first just barely ahead of the Patriots at No. 2 and the Packers at No. 3.

Given the standard three points allotted for home-field advantage, the spread implied Green Bay was a half-point stronger than New England. The minus-3.5 line, however, could be interpreted another way — as a testament to Lambeau Field holding a stronger advantage than the average NFL venue.

The Packers are undefeated at home this season, having yet to lose against the spread with a 4-0-1 record. Both of the Patriots slips additionally have come on the road, where they’re 3-2 straight-up and against the spread.

But New England is suddenly, following losses by Arizona and Kansas City last week, on the league’s best covering streak with four in a row and six of seven. While Brady has again implanted himself in MVP running at offshores where such wagers are permitted — he’s the 6-to-1 third choice behind Green Bay’s Aaron Rodgers and Denver’s Peyton Manning — the Patriots are excelling just as wildly in areas other than the passing game.

They’ve averaged better than five yards per carry in their last two games with two different leading rushers. LeGarette Blount pushed past the Lions’ top-ranked defense for 78 yards and two touchdowns on 12 carries in last week’s 34-9 victory as 7-point favorites.

Notre Dame rookie Jonas Gray didn’t receive a carry as punishment for showing up late to practice a week after incinerating the Colts for 201 yards and four touchdowns on 37 carries in a 42-20 blowout as 3-point underdogs.

New England’s defense has wedged itself back into the top 10 in Football Outsiders’ DVOA after falling off midseason, largely because of its secondary. And not just feared cornerback Darrelle Revis. It was actually former Seahawk Brandon Browner who held Calvin Johnson in check with four catches for 58 yards last week.

Browner and Revis will get another challenge in Green Bay’s Jordy Nelson and Randall Cobb Sunday. Much is made New England tight end Rob Gronkowski, who has 89 catches for 812 yards and nine touchdowns on the year, but Green Bay’s top two receivers both have more yards.

Cobb also has one more touchdown than Gronkowski, while Nelson is tied with nine. Rodgers leads the NFL with 8.65 yards per pass attempt. Brady isn’t even among the top 15 at 7.19 yards per pass attempt.

At 22nd in DVOA, Green Bay is more susceptible against the run anyhow. There’s much intrigue over which running back New England coach Bill Belichick will unleash on a Green Bay rush defense that gave up a career-high 172 yards to New Orleans’ Mark Ingram in their last loss.

The current over/under of 59 points is the highest of any game this season. Should a meeting a couple months from now occur, that would also come in as the largest total in Super Bowl history.

New England and Green Bay are both favored to win home-field advantage, but that far from enhances their chances of playing in the last game of the year. The two top seeds have only advanced to the Super Bowl together three times in 21 years since the NFL put in its 12-team playoff field.

It’s too early to use the “p” word.

Check below for all of this week’s picks listed in order of sports books’ rotation numbers.

 

Case Keefer (2012 champion, 2013 co-champion)

Record: 39-33 (5-1 last week)

Texans minus-6.5 vs. Titans

Bills minus-2.5 vs. Browns

Saints plus-4.5 at Steelers

Vikings minus-2.5 vs. Panthers

Falcons plus-2.5 vs. Cardinals

Packers minus-3 vs. Patriots

 

Taylor Bern

Record: 38-32-2 (1-5 last week)

Texans minus-6.5 vs. Titans

Browns plus-2.5 at Bills

Colts minus-9.5 vs. Redskins

Giants minus-2.5 at Jaguars

Panthers plus-2.5 at Vikings

Patriots plus-3 at Packers

 

Ray Brewer (2013 co-champion)

Record: 37-35 (1-5 last week)

Bills minus-2.5 vs. Browns

Bengals minus-3.5 at Buccaneers

Steelers minus-4.5 vs. Saints

Giants minus-2.5 at Jaguars

Patriots plus-3 at Packers

Broncos minus-2 at Chiefs

Case Keefer can be reached at 948-2790 or [email protected]. Follow Case on Twitter at twitter.com/casekeefer.