Las Vegas Sun

March 19, 2024

College football by the odds: Vegas picks and preview of week 14

Alabama-Mississippi State

Butch Dill / AP

Alabama defensive back Geno Smith tackles Mississippi State running back Josh Robinson in the end zone for a safety Saturday, Nov. 15, 2014, in Tuscaloosa, Ala.

For the first time since the advent of the college football playoff rankings earlier this year, the top four teams stayed exactly the same this week.

That doesn’t mean the discord has come to an end. Even before next week’s volatile conference championship games, there’s a great chance for shake-up this weekend.

Each of the top four teams must play their in-state rivals, and only No. 2 Oregon is in a game with a double-digit point spread. No. 1 Alabama and No. 4 Mississippi State must play heated foes that were once in the playoff race in Auburn and Ole Miss as 9.5- and 2.5-point favorites, respectively.

No. 3 Florida State gives Florida as few as 7 points, prompting flashbacks to 2012 when the Gators knocked off the Seminoles with an identical line.

Using the money lines on the games to calculate, sports books give the top four only a 34 percent chance of all escaping the weekend unscathed.

Whether it’s the first-ever playoff or the BCS, fans annually jump to conclusions about which teams will be involved. Year after year, the final two weeks present their share of shockers.

It’s foolish to think this season will be any different. The odds concur.

I’m entering the final full week of college football with a 72-56-2 against the spread record picking the 10 biggest games each week. It’s been the best college football year in Talking Points history, and I don’t want to tarnish it now.

Find the full week 14 preview and picks below.

    • FILE - In this Sept. 7, 2013, file photo, Missouri's Markus Golden, left, reaches to intercept the ball that slipped out of Toledo quarterback Terrance Owens' hand, right, before returning it for a touchdwon during the third quarter of an NCAA college football in Columbia, Mo. Golden's 70-yard interception return against Toledo was one of Missouri's six picks this year, just one shy of its total from all of last season. The defense will get its toughest test so far against a high-octane Indiana offense, one it will face without suspended captain Andrew Wilson for the first half. (AP Photo/L.G. Patterson, File)

      Arkansas minus-2 at Missouri, over/under: OFF; 11:30 a.m. Friday, CBS

      The two teams no one in the SEC wants to play at the moment appropriately play each other.

      Arkansas is on a four-game winning streak against the spread, losing just one of the contests straight-up. Missouri is on a five-game winning streak straight-up, beating the spread in all but one of the victories.

      Few sports books have posted a line with the status of Arkansas quarterback Brandon Allen, who hurt his hip in a 30-0 upset against Ole Miss last week, uncertain. The Razorbacks are a run-first team, but Allen has improved throughout the year to where he would have a definitive effect on the betting line.

      Missouri, fifth in the nation with 40 sacks, could rattle the starter’s less-seasoned younger brother Austin Allen. The Tigers advance to the SEC Championship Game with a win, leaving Georgia to advance if they lose.

      Pick: Missouri plus-2 Arkansas may have shattered its SEC losing streak at 17 games, but the Hogs still haven’t won in conference on the road in more than two years.

    • Southern California cornerback Josh Shaw, right, guards UCLA wide receiver Thomas Duarte during the first half of an NCAA college football game, Saturday, Nov. 22, 2014, in Pasadena, Calif. (AP Photo/Mark J. Terrill)

      Stanford plus-4.5 at UCLA, over/under: 50; 12:30 p.m. Friday, ABC

      UCLA boiled down the seemingly hundreds of scenarios in the Pac-12 South last weekend by beating rival USC 38-20 as a 3.5-point favorite.

      Thanks to the Bruins, the outlook is now simple: Win, and they’re playing Oregon next week for the Pac-12 championship. Lose, and the game between Arizona State and Arizona will determine the division.

      UCLA has played arguably as well as anyone in the nation since the start of November, going 3-0 straight-up and against the spread despite not being favored by more than touchdown in any game. History indicates the Bruins will need to keep on the same trajectory to beat the Cardinal.

      Stanford has won six straight in the series, also going 5-1 against the spread dating back to 2008.

      Pick: UCLA minus-4.5 Hedging my under 9.5 wins bet on UCLA, currently 9-2 straight-up, from the preseason here.

    • Arizona State running back D.J. Foster is stopped by llinois defensive back Patrick Nixon-Youman during the first half of an NCAA football game Saturday, Sept. 8, 2012, in Tempe, Ariz.

      Arizona State plus-2 at Arizona, over/under: OFF; 12:30 p.m. Friday, Fox

      The Territorial Cup has arguably never felt so momentous.

      Both Arizona and Arizona State rate in the top 15 in the college football playoff rankings at No. 11 and No. 13, respectively. And yet, it will be impossible to quantify just what’s at stake at Arizona Stadium until the game is over.

      The contest is for the Pac-12 South division title if Stanford beats UCLA, which will play out simultaneously, but otherwise only for bragging rights. Uncertainty falls with the theme, as there’s also no betting line on the game in town as of press time.

      Scouring the offshores was the only way to find any number on the game. The hesitancy to post a spread comes because of a foot injury to quarterback Anu Solomon, Bishop Gorman graduate, suffered in last week’s 42-10 blowout of Utah as 4.5-point underdogs.

      Solomon has been sensational with more than 3,200 yards and 25 touchdowns to seven interceptions, but his impact could be minimal on the betting line. Arizona has one of the Pac-12’s better backups in senior Jesse Scroggins, a once highly touted recruit who transferred in from USC.

      Pick: Arizona State plus-2 Sun Devils’ defense is strong enough to get the nod.

    • Ohio State's Michael Thomas catches the ball during NCAA college football practice Tuesday, Aug. 7, 2012, in Columbus, Ohio. (AP Photo/Jay LaPrete)

      Michigan plus-20.5 at Ohio State, over/under: 52.5; 9 a.m. Saturday, ABC

      Out of all the teams just missing the top four of the college football playoff rankings, Ohio State’s fans are screaming the loudest.

      Las Vegas isn’t listening. Oddsmakers, for the most part, agree with slotting Ohio State in as the No. 6 team in the nation.

      The Buckeyes aren’t in the top four of any power ratings. And the last two weeks haven’t helped their case much.

      After failing to cover minus-13 at Minnesota in a 31-24 win, Ohio State struggled to put away Indiana as 36.5-point favorites at home. The Buckeyes eventually prevailed 42-27.

      Luckily for Ohio State, Michigan is far worse offensively than the previous two opponents. The Wolverines are 75th in the nation at gaining 5.1 yards per play.

      Ohio State is in the top 10 at 6.7 yards per play as quarterback J.T. Barrett attracts some late Heisman consideration. In a true freshman season where he wasn’t expected to start, Barrett has 42 touchdowns — 33 passing and nine rushing.

      Pick: Ohio State minus-20.5 Hate laying this many points in a rivalry game, but the Wolverines are dreadful and the Buckeyes know a blowout is necessary to help their playoff chances.

    • Georgia Tech quarterback Synjyn Days reaches the ball across the goal line to score a touchdown against Western Carolina during an NCAA college football in Atlanta, Thursday, Sept. 1, 2011. AP Photo/Billy Weeks)

      Georgia Tech plus-13 at Georgia, over/under: 66; 9 a.m. Saturday, SEC Network

      For the second time in three years, both of Georgia’s major college programs could represent the state in their respective conference championship games.

      Georgia Tech is already set to challenge Florida State next week in Charlotte for the ACC Championship Game. Georgia needs Arkansas to knock off Missouri on the road to reach its third SEC Championship Game in four years.

      This game is just as important to the Yellow Jackets, which have lost five straight to the Bulldogs. Georgia has also gone 4-1 against the spread during the span.

      Both schools rank in the top 10 in the nation at 6.1 yards per rushing attempt. Georgia freshman Nick Chubb has run for more than 100 yards in six straight games as the Bulldogs are the best running team in the nation according to Football Outsiders’ F/+ ratings.

      Georgia Tech doesn’t have any player averaging more than 7 yards per carry like Chubb, but both Synjyn Davis and Justin Thomas are well above five.

      Pick: Georgia Tech plus-13 Georgia should win, but this is too many points.

    • Alabama back Blake Sims (6) runs past Mississippi safety Frank Crawford (5) for a 45-yard gain in the fourth quarter of an NCAA college football game in Oxford, Miss., Saturday, Oct. 15, 2011. No. 2 Alabama won 52-7. (AP Photo/Rogelio V. Solis)

      Auburn plus-9.5 at Alabama, over/under: 53.5; 11:30 a.m. Saturday, CBS

      Auburn started the season preaching 13 seconds. Now it’s only focused on 60 minutes.

      Auburn’s dreams of the national championship, which they came 13 seconds from capturing last year, have more than dissipated with three losses in its last six games. But the Tigers can still ruin their archrivals’ hopes.

      Despite being on the road, they’ll actually come into this year’s Iron Bowl as a half-point smaller underdog than last year. Auburn was plus-10 when it stunned Alabama 34-28 with Chris Davis’ “Kick Six” 110-yard return at the end of regulation.

      When Auburn fell short of beating Florida State, it brought the first time in five years that the winner of this game didn’t go on to take the national championship. Not only is Alabama No. 1 in the college football playoff rankings this year, but it’s also at the top of the Westgate Las Vegas Superbook odds at 8-to-5 to win the title.

      Pick: Over 53.5 Opening number looks a little short with some potential value because both teams’ last two games have gone comfortably under.

    • Florida State's Reggie Northrup (5) recovers a fumble his returner dropped on a kickoff as Pittsburgh defensive back Trenton Coles (27) pursues in the first quarterof the NCAA football game, Monday, Sept. 2, 2013 in Pittsburgh. (AP Photo/Keith Srakocic)

      Florida plus-7 at Florida State, over/under: 52; 12:30 p.m. Saturday, ESPN

      The Seminole pattern is now well established.

      Florida State opens as a fairly high favorite in every game, then gets bet down to a more reasonable spread by sharp money early in the week. The majority of bettors load up on Florida State before kickoff to create a ticket-count discrepancy, though the defending national champions rarely cover for their backers.

      It’s all happening again in the final week of the regular season. Florida State opened as high as minus-10 over its in-state rival, but immediately went down to 7.5.

      The Gators have actually been a better bet than the Seminoles this season. Florida is 5-5 against the spread, while undefeated Florida State is a ghastly 3-8.

      Departing coach Will Muschamp has done as advertised on defense with the Gators 13th in the nation at surrendering just 4.5 yards per play. The problem has been a general listlessness on offense.

      Pick: Florida State minus-7 The Gators are overvalued after going 3-1 straigh-up and against the spread in their last four games.

    • Auburn quarterback Nick Marshall (14) pulls away from the grasp of Mississippi State defensive lineman Preston Smith (91) in the first half of their NCAA college football game in Starkville, Miss., Saturday, Oct 11, 2014. No. 3 Mississippi State beat No. 2 Auburn 38-23. (AP Photo/Rogelio V. Solis)

      Mississippi State minus-2.5 at Ole Miss, over/under: 49.5; 12:30 p.m. Saturday, CBS

      Ole Miss ruined the Egg Bowl’s chances to finally get the spotlight it deserves as one of the nation’s best rivalry games.

      The state of Mississippi stops for this annual Thanksgiving weekend game, and it looked as if the nation would follow suit a month ago. It shaped up as the Game of the Year with two of the top three teams in the country closing their regular seasons against each other.

      Ole Miss hasn’t held up its end in losing four straight against the spread, including dropping its last three SEC affairs outright. Mississippi State’s only loss, 25-20 to Alabama as 9-point underdogs, is forgivable but their standing as a top-four team in the playoff rankings isn’t enough to return the Egg Bowl to as much as the game of the week.

      Ole Miss hasn’t responded well to the loss of leading receiver Laquon Treadwell, who snapped his leg in Ole Miss’ 35-31 loss to Auburn as a 1-point favorite. Mississippi State’s offense has tailed off as well, dropping from 1st to 12th in Football Outsiders’ F/+ ratings, but the defense has steadily improved. Benardrick McKinney and Beniquez Brown have emerged as one of the nation’s top linebacking duos.

      Pick: Ole Miss plus-2.5 Hard to pick Rebels coming off of 30-0 loss to Arkansas, but looking at their season as a whole, this game is evenly matched.

    • Nebraska quarterback Tommy Armstrong Jr. (4) runs away from Minnesota linebacker De'Vondre Campbell (26) and Minnesota linebacker Damien Wilson (5) in the first half of an NCAA college football game in Lincoln, Neb., Saturday, Nov. 22, 2014. (AP Photo/Nati Harnik)

      Minnesota plus-13.5 at Wisconsin, over/under: 51.5; 12:30 p.m. Saturday, Big Ten Network

      With upsets in two of its last three games, Minnesota finds itself one win away from a berth in the Big Ten Championship Game.

      The Golden Gophers would likely be the most improbable team playing for a conference championship as they were 60-to-1 to win the Big Ten before the season. They haven’t won a conference championship since 1967.

      Wisconsin has won the Big Ten three times in the last five years, and gets another chance of its own by beating Minnesota. Wisconsin was far from a long shot coming into the year, being offered at 3-to-1 odds to win the Big Ten behind only Ohio State.

      Melvin Gordon has been even better than expected in leading the nation in rushing by more than 200 yards. Fellow running back David Cobb has powered Minnesota’s offense, but comes into the game questionable with an injured hamstring.

      Pick: Wisconsin minus-13.5 Jump on this number while it’s still available.

    • Oregon running back Thomas Tyner (24) runs the football against South Dakota during the second quarter of an NCAA college football game in Eugene, Ore., Saturday, Aug. 30, 2014 (AP Photo/Ryan Kang)

      Oregon minus-20 at Oregon State, over/under: 67; 5 p.m. Saturday, ABC

      America could have suffered far fewer casualties if only the real Civil War was as one-sided as the football rivalry with the same name.

      Oregon is only 15 wins ahead of Oregon State in the two schools’ all-time series, but that includes six straight victories dating back to 2008. The Ducks haven’t entered as underdogs since 2004.

      The point spread is bound to close at 20 or more points for the third time in four years. Last year’s 24-point line didn’t mean much to the Beavers, though.

      They had the lead with less than two minutes to go before Ducks quarterback Marcus Mariota brought his team back for a 36-35 victory.

      It broke a three-year covering streak for Oregon, which may have their best team this season. Since losing to Arizona, Oregon has gone undefeated straight-up and against the spread with a 22-point average margin of victory.

      Oregon State had a marquee victory in knocking off Arizona State 35-27 as 7-point underdogs two weeks ago, but responded by getting beat down 37-13 by Washington as 6.5-point underdogs.

      Pick: Under 67 Too many points in a game with a team, Oregon State, that’s offense scares no one.

    Case Keefer can be reached at 948-2790 or [email protected]. Follow Case on Twitter at twitter.com/casekeefer.

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