Vegas pick ’em: NFL week 4 winners against the spread

By Case Keefer (contact)

Thursday, Sept. 25, 2014 | 2 a.m.

The bad beat of the year throne is now occupied after NFL week 3.

It’s going to take something particularly ruthless to depose the Seattle Seahawks’ 26-20 victory over the Denver Broncos going forward. Those who bet the Broncos, which were as high as plus-5.5, might want to skip the next few sentences as to not relive a traumatic experience.

Denver bettors were thrilled when Peyton Manning led an 80-yard scoring drive to get within the point spread with less than a minute to go. The excitement turned to concern when Manning converted a 2-point conversion attempt with a pass to Demaryius Thomas to tie the game at 20.

The horror pessimists feared the most unfolded when Seattle won the coin toss and drove down the field and into the end zone for a 26-20 victory that covered every betting line.

Talking Points, naturally, was on Denver. The loss hurt, but it couldn’t stop the blog from a third straight week with a winning record. The overall mark now stands at 29-18-1. As stressed last week, that’s a nearly impossible rate to maintain. I just hope to minimize the impact from the crash.

Check below for this week’s picks, separated as always into three categories with each of their records attached.

Plays (6-4)

New York Giants plus-4 at Washington Redskins Now that the dollar-store pass defenses are out of the way, Operation: Fade Kirk Cousins can commence. A road team covers on Thursday night for the first time this season.

Tennessee Titans plus-7.5 at Indianapolis Colts Guess I’m destined to pick against the Colts, which I can’t help but think are a tad overvalued, every week. The past four matchups between these teams, since Andrew Luck arrived in Indianapolis, have been decided by an average of five points with only one margin more than 7.5 — and it was an eight-point win.

New York Jets plus-2 vs. Detroit Lions As much as 90 percent of the tickets will be on the Lions. I’ve already written about that being a dead giveaway to take the other side in this space. Especially when the Jets have quietly played just as well, if not better, than the Lions on offense with New York’s 5.4 yards per play to Detroit’s 5.3.

New England Patriots minus-3.5 at Kansas City Chiefs If history is any indication, the Patriots are most reliable when everyone starts doubting them. The troubles of New England’s offense have overshadowed its dominant play on defense.

Leans (14-7)

Oakland Raiders plus-4 vs. Miami Dolphins The coach favored to get fired first in the NFL, Oakland’s Dennis Allen at 3-to-2, goes up against his closest competitor, Miami’s Joe Philbin at 3-to-1. Hate to rate a play on the Raiders this highly, but there’s just no way the almost-as-woeful Dolphins should give more than a field goal on a neutral field.

Green Bay Packers minus-1 at Chicago Bears Getting a bargain price on the Packers because of their poor start, which I tend to think falls slightly more on the fluky side. There’s no better place than Chicago, where quarterback Aaron Rodgers has gone 6-1 straight up and against the spread for his career, to get right.

Minnesota Vikings plus-3 vs. Atlanta Falcons The Vikings are immediately improved with Teddy Bridgewater at quarterback. Bridgewater gets the added benefit of going up against a defense ripe for the taking in his first career start.

New Orleans Saints minus-3 at Dallas Cowboys Here’s the spot the Saints can turn into the team many expected from the beginning of the season. The Cowboys’ defense ranks 30th in the league in giving up 6.3 yards per play despite playing a collection of mediocre offenses. The Saints’ offense is No. 1 in Football Outsiders’ DVOA.

Guesses (9-7-1)

Carolina Panthers plus-3.5 at Baltimore Ravens Carolina is a money-making 15-8-1 against the spread coming off a loss under coach Ron Rivera and quarterback Cam Newton. Coming off a loss by double digits, the Panthers are an even more profitable 7-3 against the spread.

Pittsburgh Steelers minus-7 vs. Tampa Bay Buccaneers Pittsburgh running back Le’Veon Bell and receiver Antonio Brown, perhaps the two most underrated players in the NFL at their positions, should have a big day against one of the worst defenses in the league. I also have a hard time imagining the league’s worst offense becoming more serviceable with coordinator Jeff Tedford having to take an indefinite medical leave of absence.

San Diego Chargers minus-13 vs. Jacksonville Jaguars Came into the season believing the Chargers were the second-best team in the AFC, and only think the case is strengthened after a 2-1 straight-up, 3-0 against-the-spread start. The Jaguars are at the very bottom, but never looking to give double digits in the NFL.

San Francisco 49ers minus-4.5 vs. Philadelphia Eagles The 49ers also started last season 1-2 and looked even worse in weeks 2 and 3 with blowout losses. In other words, San Francisco should bounce back just fine even if this particular line feels a little high.

Buffalo Bills plus-3 at Houston Texans Mediocre offenses. Turnover-prone quarterbacks. Stout defensive fronts. Shaky secondaries. Do any two teams look as similar to each other as Buffalo and Houston, which both started 2-0 before playing poorly in losses last week? I’ll take the one getting points — I guess.

Case Keefer can be reached at 948-2790 or [email protected]. Follow Case on Twitter at twitter.com/casekeefer.