NCAA Tournament by the odds: Vegas picks and perspective of the West Region

By Case Keefer (contact)

Wednesday, March 15, 2017 | 2:20 p.m.

Note: This is the final part of Talking Points’ annual series previewing the NCAA Tournament. Check out the first three parts, and come back to the Sun for more coverage throughout the tournament.

Northwestern’s bracket-mates must have watched on as the Wildcats partook in a celebration 77 years in the making on selection Sunday with either a sense of envy or inspiration.

Just seeing its name included in the NCAA Tournament field for the first time was enough for Northwestern to react with pure ecstasy. It’s going to take much more for the West Region teams above No. 8 seed Northwestern to earn their catharsis.

Before the Wildcats ever had a chance to come down from their high, college basketball fans and oddsmakers alike were moving hastily to declare the West the weakest region in this tournament. That title may or may not be justified, but it was always going to stick with this group of teams.

They’re just too cloaked in recent NCAA Tournament failure for anyone to think any otherwise. Deep postseason runs are long awaited and desperately craved for the fan bases of the teams that will try to reach the Final Four through San Jose, Calif., next Friday and Sunday.

The last Final Four appearance for any team in the West was in 2011, when VCU, a No. 10 seed this year, shockingly came out of the First Four to make it. None of these programs have made a championship game since 2002 when Maryland, a No. 6 seed this year, won the title behind Juan Dixon and Lonny Baxter.

Only four out of the 16 schools have ever reached a Final Four in the modern age of the tournament, since it was expanded to 64 teams in 1985. The good news is, the odds give a number of the downtrodden programs a fair chance to break out of their slumps.

While it’s hard to definitively declare the West the weakest region — largely because, from a Las Vegas power-rating perspective, West Virginia and St. Mary’s are stronger than a No. 4 and a No. 7 seed, respectively — it does look the most wide open. The West is the only bracket where the Westgate Las Vegas Superbook odds imply at least a 9 percent chance for five different teams to reach the Final Four.

Gonzaga is the perfect representative to sit atop the West, because no team is more associated with March devastation.

The Bulldogs have reached 19 straight NCAA Tournaments, but have gone only 21-17 straight-up and 17-21 against the spread once there. Look closer, however, and much of the abuse they take for that track record might be unjust.

They’ve only gotten upset to exit the tournament early twice in the last decade, for example. The most recent was last year when Syracuse edged Gonzaga 63-60 as 4-point underdogs in the Sweet 16.

The second came in 2013, the only other time the Zags were a No. 1 seed, when Wichita State knocked them out 76-70 as 6.5-point underdogs in the second round. But that should carry little weight, because that team wasn’t nearly as strong as this year’s Gonzaga.

In addition to being an offensive powerhouse, like it was in 2012, this year’s Bulldogs are second in the nation in defensive efficiency per kenpom.com. They have an All-American inside-out combo in point guard Nigel Williams-Goss and center Przemek Karnowski, while freshman sixth-man and Bishop Gorman graduate Zach Collins might be their most skilled player.

Past tournament performance is also continually one of the most flawed criteria for predicting future success or failure. Last year’s national champion is the latest proof, as the public had labeled Villanova as chokers for entering the tournament with a 10-16 against the spread record under coach Jay Wright.

No. 2 seed Arizona likes the thought of a team called the Wildcats breaking through. There might be even more pressure on Arizona than there is on Gonzaga, because it’s carrying the hopes of a whole conference.

The Pac-12 hasn’t produced a Final Four participant since 2008, and its teams have collectively been an unprofitable postseason bet almost every year. Following Oregon’s tough injury break and UCLA’s brutal draw, Arizona is far and away the conference’s greatest hope this season.

The Wildcats dropped from 12-to-1 to 10-to-1 to win the national championship after selection Sunday. They looked the part at the Pac-12 tournament at T-Mobile Arena last week, winning and covering in three games in three days behind a resurgent Allonzo Trier.

The sophomore guard and Findlay Prep graduate missed more than half the season due to a performance-enhancing drugs suspension. Now back and paired with freshman Lauri Markkanen, Arizona has one of the most explosive one-two offensive punches in the tournament.

The team most likely by the odds to survive the West behind Gonzaga and Arizona, No. 4 seed West Virginia, is paced more by its defense. The Mountaineers hope the Press Virginia mentality headed by Jevon Carter and Tarik Phillip in the backcourt can help them add to only three tournament wins since they reached the Final Four seven years ago.

No. 3 seed Florida State hasn’t even played in the tournament since 2012, but could also use defense as the key to a run. More than steals like West Virginia, Florida State thrives on blocks as freshman Jonathan Isaac is a rim-protecting phenom.

The final primary contender according to sports books is St. Mary’s. The Gaels won and covered against both NCAA Tournament teams they played in their non-conference schedule, but lost both straight-up and against the spread in all three meetings with Gonzaga.

When the Zags clobbered the Gaels 74-56 as 5-point favorites in the West Coast Conference tournament final at Orleans Arena two weeks ago, they went through the standard procedure of putting on championship gear and cutting down the nets. But it was all a little empty; they wanted something more.

Gonzaga wants a Northwestern moment, and in the West Region, it’s not alone in that desire.

Read below for picks and analysis on every West Region first round game, presented in rough order of confidence.

No. 12 seed Princeton plus-7 vs. No. 5 seed Notre Dame Stereotype alert: The Ivy League champion usually seems to outsmart its initial opponent, which has resulted in covers in the first round in each of the last three years. It will be no different for the Tigers, which will unleash 3-pointers from everywhere in an attempt to unseat the Irish. And they can really hit from long range.

No. 3 seed Florida State minus-12 vs. No. 14 seed Florida Gulf Coast This is not the Dunk City of old. Florida State is the tallest team in the tournament and plays exceptional interior defense, so don’t fall into the trap of expecting to see any Eagles flying over Seminoles en route to a potential upset.

No. 15 seed North Dakota plus-17 vs. No. 2 seed Arizona Arizona wasn’t the most trustworthy team as it pertained to blowing out overmatched opponents this season. The Wildcats went 6-9-1 against the spread when laying double digits.

No. 11 seed Xavier plus-2 vs. No. 6 seed Maryland Maryland's Melo Trimble is the only player anyone will talk about going into this game, but Xavier’s Trevon Bluiett might be even more invaluable to his team. He’s come on to finally lead the Musketeers past the loss of Edmond Sumner to an ACL tear.

No. 8 seed Northwestern plus-1.5 vs. No. 9 seed Vanderbilt Northwestern might be the slightest bit undervalued after a late-season swoon where one of its best players, junior guard Scottie Lindsey, wasn’t healthy and missed time. The Wildcats are well-coached enough to stay in the game, even if at a talent disadvantage, until the final seconds, where this will likely be decided.

No. 4 seed West Virginia minus-14 vs. No. 13 seed Bucknell Mountaineers are offered at a little bit of a discount after failing to cover in seven of their last eight games this season. They’ll put forth nothing short of an all-out effort here, though, with memories of last year’s 14-point beatdown by Stephen F. Austin in the first round lingering in their heads.

No. 7 St. Mary’s minus-4.5 vs. No. 10 seed VCU VCU continues to feast on teams that crumble under pressure and give the ball away. St. Mary’s is too sure handed to fall into that trap with two great ball handlers in Emmett Naar and Joe Rahon sparking its offense.

No. 1 seed Gonzaga minus-22 vs. No. 16 seed South Dakota State There’s simply not a lot of value on backing teams as overmatched as No. 16 seeds are to No. 1 seeds. Of course, it’s not advisable to lay a huge number either, but Gonzaga was the best team in the country over the course of the season. It might be even better coming off of nine days of rest.

Case Keefer can be reached at 702-948-2790 or [email protected]. Follow Case on Twitter at twitter.com/casekeefer.