NCAA Tournament by the odds: Vegas picks and perspective of the East Region

By Case Keefer (contact)

Published Tuesday, March 14, 2017 | 2 a.m.

Updated Thursday, March 16, 2017 | 10:22 a.m.

Note: This is the first part in Talking Points’ annual series previewing the NCAA Tournament. Come back over the next two days for the other three regions.

If there’s a section of the NCAA Tournament with the potential to paint the majority of brackets in America red prematurely, it’s the East Region.

Finding someone who doesn’t predict No. 1 seed Villanova and No. 2 seed Duke to meet in the regional finals on Saturday, March 25, in New York is as difficult as pinpointing a philistine to interpret abstract art. It’s far and away the most popularly picked Elite 8 matchup based on early brackets submitted on Yahoo! Sports.

Fifty-six percent of participants picked either Villanova or Duke to reach the Final Four. The next highest combined percentage between two teams in the same region was North Carolina and UCLA in the South where only 43 percent sided with one of the two choices.

Wildest of all, local betting odds, usually a bastion for enforcing the capriciousness of March Madness, sketch a similar likelihood. Future prices to win the East Region at the Westgate Las Vegas Superbook calculate out to a 55 percent chance that either the Wildcats or Blue Devils prevail — the highest share of any two regional opponents.

Most sports books in town have either Villanova or Duke at the lowest odds to win the national championship. Given their profile, there’s no questioning the Wildcats earned the distinction.

Villanova is the tournament’s No. 1 overall seed, after all, coming off last year’s run to the title where it covered in every game. With five of the eight rotation players from the championship team — including now-senior leader Josh Hart — the Wildcats have gone 31-3 straight-up, 18-15 against the spread heading into the tournament.

Duke forged a more circuitous path to the top of betting boards during a sometimes-bizarre season where it went 27-8 straight-up, 15-18-1 against the spread. The Blue Devils dealt with unique roadblocks ranging from coach Mike Krzyzewski missing a month due to back surgery to junior guard Grayson Allen causing controversy for continually tripping opponents.

They also spent the beginning of the season without the two centerpieces of what analysts regarded as the “Mona Lisa” of recruiting classes as Jayson Tatum and Harry Giles recovered from injuries. Everything fell into place by the end of the year, though, and Duke regained its preseason favorite status by winning and covering in four games in four days in the ACC Tournament.

The Blue Devils are back at the level everyone expected. Or are they?

Advanced statistics might be the only thing championing a cautious approach in the eye of bettors and oddsmakers alike getting Cameron crazy. While kenpom.com commissions a 28 percent probability that Villanova wins the East to fall in line with the Superbook’s implied expectation of 30 percent, there’s a big departure when it comes to Duke.

The Blue Devils have only a 15 percent shot at reaching the Final Four, per kenpom, as opposed to 25 percent by the future odds.

Part of the statistical skepticism comes from the fact that the rest of the East is more rugged than many have given it credit. It’s the top heaviest region — a fact the odds confirm.

The Superbook offers 18 teams at odds of 40-to-1 or less to win the national championship. The East is the only region with six of those teams, as No. 3 seed Baylor, No. 4 seed Florida, No. 5 seed Virginia and No. 6 seed SMU are all exactly 40-to-1.

The Bears were as low as 20-to-1 during the regular season after they became the top-ranked team in the country for the first time in program history in January. The Cavaliers and Gators also got that low in the future odds at different points in the season after they turned expected down seasons into memorable campaigns.

Florida led Kentucky for the SEC regular-season championship before dropping two of its final three games to fall to second. Virginia finished only fifth in the ACC, but that was good enough to tie Duke in the standings with an identical 11-7 conference record.

SMU also probably deserved to dip as low at 20-to-1, but oddsmakers were behind on the American Athletic Conference regular season and tournament champions all season. The Mustangs had the best record of any regularly lined team at 22-6-1.

Duke wouldn’t give more than four points on the betting line to either SMU or Baylor in a potential Sweet 16 matchup. That would present a scare for the millions banking on the surprisingly rare pairing between Villanova and Duke taking place at Madison Square Garden.

The two storied programs have played only 10 times ever, with the most recent coming in the 2009 NCAA Tournament when Villanova ousted Duke 77-54 as 2.5-point underdogs in the Sweet 16. There are a lot of people hoping to see Krzyzewski and Villanova coach Jay Wright share a regional-site court once again.

If that happens, their brackets might come off as beautifully as a Picasso piece. If it fails, they might look as chaotic as a Pollock.

Read below for picks and analysis on every East Region first round game, presented in rough order of confidence. Check back later for updated picks after the First Four games concluded.

No. 11 seed Providence plus-2.5 vs. No. 11 seed USC Despite a perception that might be to the contrary, Providence’s Big East Conference was a whole heck of a lot better than USC’s Pac-12 Conference. And while Providence was cruising through the Big East by the end of the year, USC could barely muster a positive point differential in the Pac-12.

No. 3 seed Baylor minus-12 vs. No. 14 seed New Mexico State Let’s not forget part of what enabled Baylor to reach No. 1 in the polls earlier in the year — positively pillaging outmatched non-conference foes. Behind two-way nuisance Johnathan Motley, one of the nation’s best players, the Bears went 12-0 straight-up and 6-1 against the spread before Big 12 play began.

No. 13 seed East Tennessee State plus-10.5 vs. No. 4 seed Florida The Buccaneers held their own against the SEC this season, beating Mississippi State while only losing by four to Tennessee. The Gators are a different animal, though they’re thin in the frontcourt. East Tennessee State should be able to take advantage of that with a pair of transfers in Tevin Glass and Hanner Mosquera-Perea down low.

No. 6 seed SMU minus-6.5 vs. No. 11 seed USC The combination of high-volume scorers in the backcourt and ferocious defense has spelled success in the tournament for the last several years. SMU checks both boxes, often playing four guards but still effectively limiting opponents' scoring chances. Buy signs are on the Mustangs until further notice.

No. 5 seed Virginia minus-7.5 vs. No. 12 seed UNC Wilmington The Seahawks are drawing the bulk of the betting action in this game, and it’s true that they have a couple of characteristics consistent with the type of NCAA Tournament teams that pull first-round upsets. They’re led by a sharp up-and-coming coach in Kevin Keatts, who’s got an experienced roster to maneuver behind. But what they don’t have is the defensive discipline to take Virginia out of a deliberate offense it runs so efficiently.

No. 15 seed Troy plus-19 vs. No. 2 seed Duke The heat, in the form of betting attention, is on Duke too heavily right now. Wait for it to cool off before considering laying an inflated number with a team that’s now expected to cruise to the Elite 8 despite being inconsistent all season.

No. 8 seed Wisconsin minus-5.5 vs. No. 9 seed Virginia Tech Was Wisconsin’s late-season swoon, where it went 4-6 straight-up and against the spread in its final 10 games, a random aberration or a real cause for concern? Was Virginia Tech’s late-season surge, where it went 6-4 straight-up and 8-1-1 against the spread, a product of good fortune or a sustainable trend? Those questions will decide this game, and there's a stronger case for the former on both counts.

No. 16 seed Mount St. Mary’s plus-2 vs. No. 16 seed New Orleans New Orleans gives the ball away nearly one out of every four times down the floor, ranking 349th in the country in turnover percentage. Mount St. Mary’s isn’t without its own flaws — rebounding chief among them — but none are quite as devastating as New Orleans’ tendency to give away possessions.

No. 7 seed South Carolina minus-1 vs. No. 10 seed Marquette Behind the nation’s most efficient three-point shooter, Markus Howard, Marquette has one of the best offenses in the tournament. Behind a cadre of stoppers including Duane Notice, who’s likely to match up with Howard, South Carolina has one of the best defenses in the tournament. Defense tends to outweigh offense in these situations.

No. 16 seed Mount St. Mary's plus-27 vs. No. 1 seed Villanova Expected this spread to come in at no more than 25 points after Mount St. Mary's slight, albeit sloppy, victory over New Orleans on Tuesday night. Therefore, even amid recollections of Villanova's 30-point first-round win last year, the hulking figure is a must-take, because even worst-case scenario, a backdoor cover could come into play.

Case Keefer can be reached at 702-948-2790 or [email protected]. Follow Case on Twitter at twitter.com/casekeefer.