Which teams will turn you a profit in the NCAA Tournament?

By Case Keefer (contact)

Sunday, March 12, 2017 | 3 a.m.

Despite the thrill of a few inevitable upsets over the first weekend of the NCAA Tournament, usually high-profile teams decide college basketball’s national championship.

Only once in the past decade has a team offered at odds greater than 25-to-1 at the beginning of the tournament gone on to win the title. There are 14 teams within that range at the Westgate Las Vegas Superbook.

That’s the group with which to familiarize yourself to profit on March Madness over the next three weeks. We’ll analyze them and decide whether they’re a bet-on or bet-against in the tournament.

BET ON

• West Virginia: The Mountaineers’ full-court press has consistently frustrated opponents in the tournament the past few years, but they haven’t boasted the offense to truly threaten a deep run. They’ve got both sides of the court figured out this year.

• Kansas: The Jayhawks struggled against the spread for most of the season, but covered in four of their final five regular-season games. The reason for the change was no mystery. Kansas started to play much better defense, which was a necessity to give likely National Player of the Year Frank Mason III his best chance to reach the Final Four.

• Florida: Mike White deserves national coach of the year honors for turning a Gators team with moderate expectations into a powerhouse. They might not be exceptional in any one area, but they’re solid in every category to leave no weaknesses for opponents to exploit.

• Villanova: This year’s Villanova team is even better than last year’s — at least going into the tournament. The Wildcats deserve to be considered the best team in the nation, and they’re neither ranked nor priced like it.

• Gonzaga: Villanova covered in every NCAA Tournament game through its championship victory last year, with spreads deflated by bettors wary of its tradition of early flameouts. Gonzaga could be this year’s Villanova. The Bulldogs are stacked with talent, including Findlay Prep grad Nigel Williams-Goss and Bishop Gorman grad Zach Collins, but gamblers remain too cautious from past postseason struggles.

• Virginia: The Cavaliers are undervalued by virtue of going an unlucky 3-6 in games decided by six points or less. They’re perhaps the most fundamentally sound in the nation.

• Kentucky: Malik Monk and De’Aaron Fox are poised to become the next freshmen to take Kentucky on a deep run through the tournament. And if they fail, coach John Calipari will just blame the selection committee.

BET AGAINST

• North Carolina: Behind the one-two offensive punch of Justin Jackson and Joel Berry, the Tar Heels overachieved this season and turned into one of the best teams in the nation. But they’re far from the best team in the nation, the way the betting market is pricing them.

• Oregon: There’s a reason nine years have passed since a Pac-12 Conference team reached the Final Four. It’s almost always the weakest league of the major conferences, and this year is no exception despite claims to the contrary.

• UCLA: Of all the contenders, UCLA has the most exciting player in freshman Lonzo Ball. But more important, UCLA also has the worst defense among all the contenders, barely ranking within the top 100 in defensive efficiency.

• Duke: In years when Duke hasn’t earned a No. 1 seed, it has struggled in the NCAA Tournament. The Blue Devils have gone 5-8 against the spread with two first-round exits in their past five appearances without a top seed, which they won’t have again this year.

• Arizona: The Wildcats may have peaked early, as an offense that was red-hot midseason labored by the end of the year. Arizona also is one of the youngest teams in the nation.

• Louisville: Louisville’s most successful tournament teams under coach Rick Pitino have all possessed a singular force in a player who can take over games at any moment. The Cardinals sorely lack that presence this season.

• Purdue: The Boilermakers have one of the nation’s best players in sophomore forward Caleb Swanigan, but not much else. They also faded down the stretch of the regular season, failing to cover in three of their last four games.