NCAA Tournament by the odds: Vegas picks and perspective of the South Region

By Case Keefer (contact)

Published Tuesday, March 14, 2017 | 2:20 p.m.

Updated Wednesday, March 15, 2017 | 2:22 p.m.

Note: This is part two of Talking Points’ annual series previewing the NCAA Tournament. Check out part one here, and come back tomorrow for the final two installments.

Members of the NCAA Tournament selection committee should expect to receive the mother of all gift baskets from the Memphis Convention & Visitors Bureau.

There was no bigger winner than the South’s river city on selection Sunday. Bring in extra bartenders on Beale Street, tidy up Graceland and let loose the Peabody ducks, because the forecast calls for a flood of tourism next weekend.

If the seeds hold to form, the South Region semifinals and finals at the Grizzlies’ FedEx Forum will become the place to be in college basketball. Barring an upset, and based on the betting market’s expectation, three of college basketball’s bluebloods will beeline to the birthplace of rock ‘n’ roll.

The potential of catching a winner-take-all scenario involving No. 1 seed North Carolina, No. 2 seed Kentucky and No. 3 seed UCLA in the same building is already captivating everyone. Much like the East Region has boiled down to an argument between two sides, the South Region is perceived as a three-team race.

Betting odds imply a 70 percent chance that one of the top three seeds make it out of the South — greater than the probability of the top three in any other bracket. It’s not good news for the rest of the region that both North Carolina and Kentucky saw their future odds to win the national championship decrease after the draw was released.

North Carolina moved to the top of the Westgate Las Vegas Superbook betting board at 5-to-1 to win its sixth tournament overnight, surpassing archrival Duke to become the overall favorite. The Tar Heels were 7-to-1 before the selection show.

Kentucky experienced a commensurate drop, going from 12-to-1 to 10-to-1 over the last two days.

UCLA has stuck at 15-to-1, but it represents the greatest liability for several sports books across the valley after opening as high as 100-to-1 to win the title last year. Only seven teams are more likely to cut down the nets at the Final Four in Phoenix than the Bruins by the odds.

Even through ups and downs, the South’s big three teams have stayed bunkered at the top of betting boards during the season because they all boast so much talent. It’s not just the powers’ formidable fan bases making plans to visit southwest Tennessee.

The area will have as many NBA scouts sizzling around as dry-rub barbecue ribs. The South Region could host six surefire first-round picks in June’s NBA Draft, with as many as three of the top six selections or five of the top 10 depending on how everything shakes out.

None are more coveted than UCLA freshman point guard Lonzo Ball, who’s stuffed the stat sheet this year averaging nearly 15 points, eight assists and six rebounds per game. Ball’s father seems out to convince everyone he’ll be the first player to win 15 MVP trophies and 15 NBA titles in 15 years, and the betting market’s opinion only appears slightly less restrained.

UCLA was one of the most popularly bet teams all season, but it didn’t really pay off for backers until it closed the regular season by covering in three of four games. That still only improved the Bruins against the spread record to 16-17, making them the lone South Region team seeded in the top eight that wasn’t profitable.

Ball is flanked by fellow classmate and potential lottery pick T.J. Leaf, whose finest hour might have come when he outplayed Kentucky’s superstar freshman trio of Malik Monk, De’Aaron Fox and Bam Abeyado earlier this season. Ball scored 17 points on 7-for-12 shooting with 13 rebounds at Rupp Arena last December as UCLA dethroned then-No. 1 Kentucky 97-92 as 11-point underdogs.

Monk had his moment two weeks later at the CBS Sports Classic at T-Mobile Arena — an event UCLA also participated in, beating Ohio State 86-73 as 8-point favorites. Monk scored 47 points including a game-winning three as Kentucky defeated North Carolina 103-100 as a 1-point favorite in a game billed as a potential Final Four preview.

Turns out it was more of a sneak peek at the Elite Eight matchup everyone wants to see. The Tar Heels have exceeded expectations to come into a second straight tournament favored to win the title.

A decline following a national runner-up finish last year never came as North Carolina actually improved in a number of areas. Juniors Justin Jackson, the South Region’s final big-time NBA Draft prospect, and Joel Berry improved their outside shooting while senior Kennedy Meeks rebounded more ferociously than ever.

There could be reservations regarding the way the Tar Heels enter the tournament. They’ve lost two of their last four games, only covering in one of them, to raise some concerns.

Tar Heel fans may rest easy knowing that, aside from Kentucky and UCLA, the South Region is no minefield. In a year where there were surprisingly few gripes from bookmakers on the overall tournament selection, the South Region stood as an exception.

By the odds, it landed the weakest No. 4, No. 5 and No. 7 seeds — Butler, Minnesota and Dayton, respectively. The fourth-best team in the bracket by Las Vegas standards in No. 10 seed Wichita State.

That sets up the nearly unprecedented situation of a No. 10 seed laying 6 points to the No. 7 seed in the first round. Even more rare, No. 12 seed Middle Tennessee State is currently a 1-point favorite over Minnesota.

Despite the fortuitous seedings, teams like Butler and No. 6 seed Cincinnati became longer shots after getting stashed in a region with three teams of such high caliber. Their future odds rose just like room rates and ticket prices in Memphis.

The South Region’s host site hasn’t been a focus in the college basketball world since then-Memphis coach John Calipari bailed amid lingering allegations to take the Kentucky job in 2009. A week from now, Calipari could help momentarily bring the shine back to a place he once called home.

Read below for picks and analysis on every South Region first round game, presented in rough order of confidence. Check back later for updated picks after the “First Four” games conclude.

No. 11 seed Kansas State minus-1 vs. No. 11 seed Wake Forest It’s a pain to prepare for the Wildcats’ swarming defense and sedate offense, especially on short notice. Wake Forest could slog their way to victory by getting the ball inside to John Collins, but Kansas State will clog the passing lanes to make sure it isn’t easy.

No. 5 seed Minnesota plus-1 vs. No. 12 seed Middle Tennessee State Do the Blue Raiders have a chance to top off the best season in school history with a tournament victory for the second year in a row? Absolutely. Do they deserve to be favored to do so? Absolutely not. It would still take an upset for Middle Tennessee State to advance, even though betting action has now made it a favorite.

No. 11 seed Kansas State plus-3.5 vs. No. 6 seed Cincinnati Playing in a First Four game is overrated as a disadvantage, especially with three days in between a round of 64 assignment. Kansas State is every bit as effective as Cincinnati and shouldn't be docked even a half-point on the spread for having to gear up for a second game on somewhat short notice.

No. 10 seed Wichita State minus-6 vs. No. 7 seed Dayton There might not be a team in the nation more balanced than Wichita State, or a coach more bright than Gregg Marshall. The Shockers are the second-best three-point shooting team in the tournament — behind Marquette — and the Flyers’ perimeter defense has been nothing special.

No. 1 seed North Carolina minus-26.5 vs. No. 16 seed Texas Southern The Tigers’ Southwestern Athletic Conference was the worst conference in college basketball this season, so there’s little value in putting stock into what they did in a league play. But in the non-conference, they played four NCAA Tournament teams — Baylor, Cincinnati, Louisville and Arizona — and lost by an average of 29 points. North Carolina is better than all of those teams.

No. 8 seed Arkansas minus-1 vs. No. 9 seed Seton Hall This is a true toss-up between two teams that came on late in the season behind impressive big men — the Pirates’ Angel Delgado vs. the Razorbacks’ Moses Kingley. Arkansas is solid across the board while Seton Hall has a couple issues — it’s turnover-prone and a poor free-throw shooting team — that could spell trouble.

No. 15 seed Northern Kentucky plus-19 vs. No. 2 seed Kentucky The Norse get to play an in-state opponent after making the NCAA Tournament in their first year of eligibility. Will any team in the field be more fired up for a first-round game? Certainly not their neighbors 90 miles to the South, as the Wildcats probably believe they could win this game blindfolded.

No. 14 seed Kent State plus-18 vs. No. 3 seed UCLA Point spread looks accurate, if not a tad inflated, and yet the Bruins are the most popular first-round bet through two days. Backing a side drawing more than 80 percent of the bets is a recipe for going broke in the long run.

No. 4 seed Butler minus-11 vs. No. 13 seed Winthrop This was another poor seeding job by the selection committee considering Winthrop would be underdogs to three No. 14 seeds — New Mexico State, Iona and Florida Gulf Coast. That doesn’t mean the Bulldogs will blow the Eagles out, but they’re certainly capable when their offense is clicking.

Case Keefer can be reached at 702-948-2790 or [email protected]. Follow Case on Twitter at twitter.com/casekeefer.