NCAA Tournament by the Odds: Vegas picks for Saturday’s round of 32

By Case Keefer (contact)

Friday, March 16, 2012 | 11:45 p.m.

Betting every game on the board is one of the biggest mistakes a player can make.

Anyone who’s been around sports betting long enough will say this, and it makes perfect sense. A bettor simply can’t hold that much of an edge over a sports book.

So then, you say, why pick every game in this space? Many reasons. Most notably, this blog is for entertainment.

I’m not running across the street to my home sports book to get money on every one of these. But I haven’t embarrassed myself too badly yet, going 16-16 picking every game in the region previews, so we might as well continue.

It’s worth pointing out that each region’s best bet covered Thursday and Friday, meaning the blog went 4-0 on plays with the highest confidence level.

Allow me the option to totally contradict myself after I go 5-3 one of these next two days by missing the top three and hitting the bottom five. Without further ado, let’s get to the picks for Saturday. As always, they are listed in order of confidence.

No. 4 Wisconsin (+1) over No. 5 Vanderbilt Commodores are playing great and Badgers have a history of bowing out in this round, but it’s hard to shake the feeling that the wrong team is favored.

No. 1 Syracuse (-5) over No. 8 Kansas State Syracuse plays defense well enough to shut down the only Wildcat who poses a threat — junior Rodney McGruder.

No. 4 Indiana (-6) over No. 12 Virginia Commonwealth Indiana is poised to handle VCU’s press better than recent opponents, especially Wichita State.

No. 5 New Mexico (+1.5) over No. 4 Louisville To use the same reasoning twice, it appears the slightly better team is getting points here and that makes for an easy take.

No. 6 Murray State (+5) over No. 3 Marquette Murray State looked sharp once it got going Thursday against Colorado State. With leaders like Isaiah Canaan and Donte Poole, the Racers often appear unflappable.

No. 1 Kentucky (-11.5) over No. 8 Iowa State This is the first game that Kentucky’s genuinely needed to worry about since the end of the regular season, which should mean maximum effort from the athletically superior squad.

No. 3 Baylor (-7.5) over No. 11 Colorado The Bears are notoriously untrustworthy, but they match up well in every conceivable area against the Buffaloes.

No. 7 Gonzaga (+7.5) over No. 2 Ohio State Best bet might be the under 137, as the Bulldogs have stayed below the number posted in eight of their last 10 contests.

Case Keefer can be reached at 948-2790 or [email protected]. Follow Case on Twitter at twitter.com/casekeefer.