Las Vegas Sun

March 29, 2024

NCAA Tournament by the Odds: How sports books fared on round of 64

Las Vegas Sports Books

Christopher DeVargas

A view of the Caesars Palace sports book, March 13, 2012.

Sportsbooks

Don Chambers, bottom left, of Orange Beach Ala. watches a horse race at the Las Vegas Hilton sports book Thursday, August 21, 2008. STEVE MARCUS/ LAS VEGAS SUN Launch slideshow »

Local sports book directors were moping around their jam-packed floors, cursing their very existence.

The thrill-seeking tourists surrounding the bookmakers, meanwhile, were beginning to dream wild dreams. Most of them were probably ready to phone home, quit their day jobs and arrange a move to the valley to make a run at life as a professional sports bettor.

That’s an exaggeration, of course, but gives a representation of the attitudes of casual college basketball gamblers and those taking their action early Friday afternoon.

Through 23 games in the NCAA Tournament’s round of 64, favorites were covering at a 65 percent clip and crippling sports books’ bottom lines in the process. Sports books are almost always rooting against favorites in events with as much public attraction and handle as the NCAA Tournament.

It’s especially true for high-profile favorites, teams with a top four seed, and that’s what had added insult to oddsmakers. Top four seeds covered in seven of the first 10 games they were involved in.

Then, Madness found March. Or maybe March found Madness. Headlined by two straight-up upsets by No. 15 seeds, the underdogs barked back to go 7-2 in the round of 64’s final nine games.

Moods swung. Roles reversed. Wallets thinned.

No. 15 seed Norfolk State, which started the upheaval by shocking No. 2 seed Missouri 86-84 in Omaha, Neb., wasn’t exactly a popular play. Norfolk — which holds losses this season to such stalwarts as Coppin State and, yes this is a real school, Elizabeth City State — stayed a 21.5-point underdog to Missouri all week.

The only round of 64 game Las Vegas painted as more lopsided was Kentucky against Western Kentucky, in which oddsmakers favored the nation’s top-ranked team by 26 points.

Even after the Spartans played a brilliant first half and went to the locker room tied with the Tigers at 38, sports books posted Missouri as a 12-point second half favorite.

Click to enlarge photo

Norfolk State's Kyle O'Quinn celebrates after his team beat Missouri 86-84 in an NCAA tournament second-round college basketball game at CenturyLink Center in Omaha, Neb., on Friday, March 16, 2012.

But Norfolk State’s Pendarvis Williams and Chris McEachin continued to drain three-pointers — going a combined 8-for-12 from long range — and Kyle O’Quinn kept dominating the interior with 26 points and 15 rebounds. The Spartans out-rebounded the Tigers by 12 to key the victory.

Bettors who laid the 21 with Missouri were too embarrassed to even fully appreciate the emotional and timeless interview O’Quinn gave on live television after the victory.

A No. 15 seed hadn’t beaten a No. 2 seed in 11 years. It took only a couple hours before it happened again, as Lehigh controlled Duke from start to finish in a 75-70 win behind C.J. McCollum’s 30 points, six assists and six rebounds.

The natural reaction from television personalities was to compare Lehigh’s upset to Norfolk State’s. But not all underdogs are created equal. Not in our town.

A $100 wager on Norfolk State to win would have yielded a $4,000 payday. A $100 wager on Lehigh, who was +12.5 on the spread, to win would have only paid $750.

As pointed out in this preview piece, at least one smart betting service declared Lehigh the most likely No. 15 seed to beat a No. 2 in years.

Virginia Commonwealth and Ohio were the next biggest Vegas upsets this far in the tournament behind Norfolk State and Lehigh. VCU beat 7-point favorite Wichita State by three Thursday night, while Ohio added to Friday’s madness with a three-point win against Michigan, which oddsmakers favored by six.

Read below for a more in-depth breakdown of what happened at the sports books in the round of 64.

Quick Stats: Favorites and underdogs are dead-even when it comes to performing against the spread in the 2012 NCAA Tournament. Favorites have covered in 18 games. Underdogs have covered in 18 games. Twenty-two of 36 games have gone under the total.

Five results that were positive for sports books

1. Western Kentucky (+26) over Kentucky, 81-66 UK final score

Bettors continued to ignore Kentucky’s atrocious 12-2-1 against-the-spread record this year, as books benefited from another inflated number on the No. 1 overall seed.

2. Iowa State (+2) over Connecticut, 77-64 ISU final score

The Cyclones opened as a 1.5-point favorite at a few shops in town before the overwhelming respect for the defending national champions pushed the line the other way.

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UNLV head coach Dave Rice grabs his head as he leaves the court with assistant coach Justin Hutson after being upset by Colorado 68-64 in the second round of the NCAA Men's Basketball Championship Thursday, March 15, 2012 in Albuquerque.

3. Colorado (+5.5) over UNLV, 68-64 CU final score

Looks like a lot of locals made the age-old mistake of betting with their heart, as several books reported lopsided money on the Rebels and moved the line 2 ½ points.

4. St. Bonaventure (+6) over Florida State, 66-63 FSU final score

At the 1,500-seat capacity LVH Theater, at least 90 percent of the audience was vigorously rooting for the Seminoles to eke out a late cover that didn’t happen.

5. Virginia Commonwealth (+7) over Wichita State, 62-59 VCU final score

Not only did sports books print more tickets on Wichita State to beat VCU, but they were also vulnerable to paying off large future bets if the Shockers would have won the national championship.

Five results that were negative for sports books

1. Murray State (-4.5) over Colorado State, 58-41 MSU final score

Bettors pounded the short spread on the one-loss Racers, which made for a big loss to open the tournament for the books.

2. Marquette (-5.5) over BYU, 88-66 MU final score

Marquette improved its impressive against-the-spread record to 17-12-1, much to the pleasure of many sports books patrons who bet against BYU winning two games in three days.

3. Vanderbilt (-6) over Harvard, 79-70 Vandy final score

Late money came in on the Commodores in some spots, who got as low as -5 before spiking up to 6-point favorites shortly before Thursday’s tipoff.

4. North Carolina State (-2.5) over San Diego State, 79-65 NCSU final score

Oddsmakers asked bettors to take a position on this game, opening it as a pick’em, and money flooded in on the Wolf Pack to push the line up.

5. North Carolina (-16.5) over Vermont, 77-58 UNC final

No. 1 seeds have frequently covered the spread against teams seeded 16th in recent years, but that doesn’t make it any easier to swallow for the books.

Five Bad Beats

1. Western Kentucky beats Mississippi Valley State 59-58

The contingent of gamblers who had money line tickets on Mississippi Valley State to win at +135 (risking $1 to win $1.35) felt great before the Delta Devils blew a 16-point lead in the final 4:54.

2. BYU (-2) defeats Iona 78-72

In the second First Four game Tuesday night, Iona blew an even bigger lead than Mississippi Valley State. The Gales were up 49-24 in the first half before collapsing.

3. Kansas State (-5.5) beats Southern Miss 70-64

The Golden Eagles battled and kept it close the whole game, but forfeited the cover by fouling the Wildcats three times in the final 30 seconds. Kansas State went 5-for-6 from the line during the stretch.

4. Baylor (-7.5) defeats South Dakota State 68-60

The Jackrabbits, who led for most of the first half, missed four of five shots in the final two minutes.

5. Florida State beats Saint Bonaventure 66-63, going under 129.5 total

Over bettors got their hopes up needing only one more point with 23 seconds to go. But Florida State’s Luke Loucks missed a free throw and Saint Bonaventure clanked two close jumpers.

Case Keefer can be reached at 948-2790 or [email protected]. Follow Case on Twitter at twitter.com/casekeefer.

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