NCAA Tournament by the Odds: How sports books see the East Region

By Case Keefer (contact)

Wednesday, March 14, 2012 | 5:30 p.m.

Note: LasVegasSun.com has run a four-part series of betting previews for the NCAA Tournament. This is the final part; check out the other regions here.

Like a submarine approaching the surface, Syracuse’s odds to win the national championship immediately rose with the news of sophomore center Fab Melo’s ineligibility Tuesday.

The price on Syracuse to win the title soared to 17-to-1 at the LVH Superbook, up from 12-to-1 earlier in the day. That’s one of the higher marks, however, as most books settled the Orange at 10- or 12-to-1 from as low as 5-to-1.

Their chances of winning the East Region didn’t take as much of a hit, according to Vegas sports books. Ohio State was already the favorite. The Buckeyes created some more separation as 3-to-2 favorites, with the Orange now around 3-to-1 at most shops around the valley.

There are a few ways to look at this.

Option A: Sports books and the marketplace are overadjusting to Melo’s absence. Square sports bettors, for one, usually put too much stock into the loss of one player.

Option B: The news is catastrophic and hinders Syracuse’s chances even more than sports books think. Melo was the Big East Defensive Player of the Year, after all, and Syracuse was a poor-rebounding team even with the 7-footer in the lineup.

Option C: It doesn’t matter that much either way because Syracuse looked primed for an early fall already.

The third choice is closest to the position of this blog. Despite its 31-2 record, evidence indicates Syracuse isn’t quite on the elite level of teams like Kentucky, North Carolina and Ohio State.

The Orange had an incredible run in close games this season, going 5-1 in contests decided by one possession. They were undefeated in games decided by four points or less before last week’s 71-68 loss to Cincinnati in the Big East Conference tournament finals.

Analysts would chalk it up to “grit” and “clutch play” from players like Kris Joseph and Scoop Jardine.

Others — some would suggest smarter sports bettors — would see it more as Syracuse outperforming its expectation level. Statistics back this theory, as Ken Pomeroy’s advanced metrics rate Syracuse 35th out of 345 college basketball teams in luck.

The Orange could be on a Sweet 16 collision course with teams that fit the opposite profile. No. 4 seed Wisconsin, 200th in Pomeroy’s luck factor, and No. 5 seed Vanderbilt, 265th in luck, are better teams than their respective 24-9 and 24-10 records illustrate.

Sports books recognize this, as Wisconsin and Vanderbilt both have shorter prices to win the national championship than typical 4- or 5-seeds. Cantor has the Commodores at 40-to-1 and the Badgers at 50-to-1.

Despite those future odds — which may indicate Cantor received action on the Commodores to win the title — Wisconsin would open as a slight favorite over Vanderbilt if the two were to play in the round of 32.

Either would pose a significant challenge to Syracuse, with or without Melo. Bettors should know this about Vanderbilt, as the Commodores were cashing tickets as well as anyone to end the season.

Behind some of the nation’s top semi-secrets, such as guard John Jenkins and forward Jeffrey Taylor, Vanderbilt went 7-3 against the spread in the final month before the NCAA Tournament.

Neither Vanderbilt nor Wisconsin had a luck factor ranking as high as the team favored to win the East. No. 2 seed Ohio State came in rated 294th in the category.

This could, in part, explain why Vegas sports books never stopped believing in the Buckeyes. Ohio State had a fantastic year, but many would argue it fell short of preseason expectation levels by losing seven games and not winning an outright Big Ten Conference title.

Oddsmakers have never swayed from Ohio State. The Buckeyes opened the season at 7-to-1 to win the national championship at Wynn, behind only North Carolina and Kentucky.

Ohio State is now at 5-to-1, with sports books counting the Buckeyes as more likely than the Tar Heels to win it all. Ohio State would be favored against any team in the country other than Kentucky.

It doesn’t feel like the Buckeyes fit in this bracket, if only because of their affinity for going over the total posted by Vegas sports books. Most of the contending squads in the East — five of the top seven seeds — have gone under at a solid rate.

No. 7 seed Gonzaga — a team forced to travel to Pittsburgh to play West Virginia as one-point favorites Thursday — has especially slowed its games down, as 21 of its 30 lined games went under with one push. Vanderbilt and its first opponent, No. 12 seed Harvard, have posted unders in a combined 21 of 34 games.

No. 3 seed Florida State is the only team at the top of the region other than Ohio State that has gone over more frequently.

Florida State’s two victories over both North Carolina and Duke in the same season are well publicized, and they could be a sleeper in the East. But the selection committee did the Seminoles a disservice by pairing them with under-seeded St. Bonaventure in the opening game.

The Bonnies are more proven than a few teams seeded ahead of them and have gone an impressive 19-10-1 against the spread. Even if Florida State escapes the opening weekend, the inevitably of a rough Ohio State matchup appears to loom.

Pick to win the region: Wisconsin at 8-to-1 or Vanderbilt at 9-to-1 One of these teams should benefit the most from the Melo situation, and they had a great chance at the Elite Eight even before it. Wisconsin has proven it can beat Ohio State — on the road, no less — and Vanderbilt is beginning to play up to its potential.

East Region Picks Against the Spread (in order of confidence)

No. 14 St. Bonaventure +7 over No. 3 Florida State

No. 1 Syracuse -15 over No. 16 UNC-Asheville

No. 7 Gonzaga -1 over No. 10 West Virginia

No. 13 Montana +9 over No. 4 Wisconsin

No. 6 Cincinnati -2 over No. 11 Texas

No. 9 Southern Miss +5.5 over No. 8 Kansas State

No. 15 Loyola (Maryland) +17.5 over No. 2 Ohio State

No. 12 Harvard +6.5 over No. 5 Vanderbilt

Case Keefer can be reached at 948-2790 or [email protected]. Follow Case on Twitter at twitter.com/casekeefer.