Bern’s-Eye View: Mountain West Football Picks Week 8

By Taylor Bern

Friday, Oct. 23, 2015 | 1 p.m.

Does a car crash hurt any less if you see it coming? I’m not sure, but foreseeing my own disastrous results last week’s didn’t make the 1-5 calamity feel any better.

Even though I really liked last week’s slate, this is the time of year when my record dipped last year, too. I feel like I know these teams better, but “I’m reminding myself that a sign of a bad or even mediocre team is inconsistency, and since a lot of these teams fit that category, I’m half expecting everything to go awry. Hopefully that doesn’t happen, but this week and next might be the best time all year to fade me. We will see.”

Oh, we saw, and if anyone uses these for more than informational purposes, I hope you took the advice to fade. Now I’m not sure exactly what to expect, but I’m confident in getting more than one win this weekend. At least I'd better:

FRIDAY

Utah State (minus-3.5) at San Diego State

7:30 p.m., ESPN2

• I really have no idea what to do with this game. Both teams have, at times that include last weekend, looked like the division leaders that they are. But although Rocky Long-coached teams tend to get better throughout the year, this is the same San Diego State (4-3, 3-0) that lost at home to South Alabama. Utah State (4-2, 3-0) isn’t as good as the 52-26 final score against Boise State would make it seem, but the Aggies do seem legit and I’ll give their more balanced squad the edge on the road.

Pick: Utah State — Loss

SATURDAY

Fresno State (plus-17.5) at Air Force

11 a.m., ESPN3

• It makes UNLV’s loss last week look worse when that opponent, Fresno State (2-5, 1-3), now goes on the road and gets nearly three touchdowns against a capable but definitely not great Air Force (3-3, 2-1). It feels like they want you to take the Bulldogs here, so for that and many other reasons I’ve got the Falcons.

Pick: Air Force — Win

Hawaii (plus-7) at UNR

1 p.m., TWC Oceanic

• UNR really screwed itself with last week’s loss to Wyoming. The Wolf Pack (3-4, 1-2) should have been 2-1 in league play with games against both of the teams ahead of them still on the docket. Instead they’re chasing from behind. Although I think they’ll do fine Saturday against Hawaii (2-5, 0-3), with three road games in the past four, UNR is playing for bowl eligibility and little else.

Pick: UNR — Win

New Mexico (plus-7.5) at San Jose State

4 p.m., Root Sports/MWN

• This is the second-toughest game to figure out this weekend. San Jose State (3-4, 2-2) didn’t look very good two weeks ago in the win against UNLV and lost big as a favorite against SDSU. Then there are the Lobos (4-3, 2-1), whose two league wins were against probably the league’s two worst teams (Hawaii, Wyoming). This could end up being a minor breakthrough season for New Mexico, and ultimately I’m going with the run-heavy Lobos because San Jose State has the Mountain West’s worst rushing defense.

Pick: New Mexico — Loss

Wyoming (plus-35) at Boise State

7:15 p.m., ESPN2

• Poor Pokes. Wyoming (1-6, 1-2) picked up its first win of the season, and the reward is Boise State (5-2, 2-1), which will be looking to take out last week’s frustrations on whomever stands before it. This will be ugly.

Pick: Boise State — Loss

Last week: 1-5

Season: 28-22-1

2014 record: 49-37

Taylor Bern can be reached at 948-7844 or [email protected]. Follow Taylor on Twitter at twitter.com/taylorbern.