Bern’s-Eye View: Mountain West football picks Week 2

By Taylor Bern

Friday, Sept. 11, 2015 | 1 p.m.

If you’re reading this and, like me, you like Utah State as an underdog tonight it’s too late to get your best value.

No. 24 Utah was posted as a 13.5-point favorite at most sports books throughout the week, and that started to drop last night. It’s currently at minus-12 most places, though there are some bigger numbers still out there for those willing to shop around.

Even with the line move, I’m sticking with the Aggies in tonight’s lone Mountain West game. Unlike last week, when 75 percent of the league was playing Division I-AA teams, we have a full slate this weekend, so even if I screw up tonight’s game, there are plenty of opportunities to save face Saturday.

Here are the picks:

Note: UNLV picks will appear in the live blog on the day of the game.

FRIDAY

Utah State (plus-12) at No. 24 Utah

6 p.m., ESPN2

• Utah was solid in its debut victory against Michigan while Utah State barely slipped past Southern Utah, a team pegged to finish eighth in the Big Sky Conference. However, Utah State tends to get up for regional rivals Utah and BYU. Over the last five years, the Aggies haven’t lost a road game at either of those two schools by more than five and home or on the road during that stretch they are 3-4 straight up.

Pick: Utah State — Win

SATURDAY

Minnesota (minus-5) at Colorado State

12:30 p.m., CBS Sports Network

• I think it’s possible that Minnesota is actually a legitimately good team this season, but I’d rather see another game before laying points with them on the road against a decent opponent.

Pick: Colorado State — Win

Fresno State (plus-30) at No. 17 Ole Miss

12:30 p.m., ESPN2

• That’s too many points for a mediocre team (compared to where they’re ranked) to lay considering they’ve got a road trip to Alabama last week. The Bulldogs stink, but they’ll manage to keep it within four touchdowns.

Pick: Fresno State — Loss

Hawaii (plus-41.5) at No. 1 Ohio State

12:30 p.m., Big Ten Network

• Does Ohio State want to win by 42? That’s the real question here. Not can the Buckeyes do it, but do they feel like it?

Pick: Hawaii — Win

Eastern Michigan (plus-13) at Wyoming

1 p.m., Root Sports

• North Dakota didn’t have a Division I victory until last week’s 24-13 triumph against Wyoming. Now Eastern Michigan, which is basically a lower-division team, comes in getting nearly two touchdowns. Wyoming’s response should be to come out and dominate, yet I’m less than confident that it’s going to play out that way.

Pick: Eastern Michigan — Win

San Diego State (plus-13.5) at Cal

2 p.m., Pac-12 Network

• Stats based on one week of games are virtually useless, but for the record, this is the nation’s second-leading offense (Cal, 656 yards) against the 16th-best defense (SDSU, 193). If the Aztecs survive the first quarter, they’re going to be fine. An early turnover or a pair of quick 3-and-outs, though, could spell a quick end to meaningful football.

Pick: San Diego State — Loss

No. 22 Arizona (minus-11.5) at UNR

4 p.m., CBS Sports Network

• I’d be comfortable laying up to 20 points in this one.

Pick: Arizona — Win

Tulsa (plus-4) at New Mexico

5 p.m., ESPN3

• Neither of these teams is any good, but they can both score points in bunches. I’ll take the points and hope for some entertaining back and forth.

Pick: Tulsa — Win

San Jose State (plus-6) at Air Force — Win

7:15 p.m., ESPNU

• The first conference game of the season! I’ve got the home team in a romp.

Pick: Air Force

No. 20 Boise State (minus-2.5) at BYU

7:15 p.m., ESPN2

• The Cougars were 4-0 last year before quarterback Taysom Hill went down for the season, kick-starting a four-game losing streak. Hill, a senior, suffered his third career season-ending injury in last week’s victory at Nebraska and a similar drop off is coming BYU’s way.

Pick: Boise State — Loss

Last week: 2-1

Season: 2-1

2014 record: 49-37

Taylor Bern can be reached at 948-7844 or [email protected]. Follow Taylor on Twitter at twitter.com/taylorbern.