Week 6 NFL game of the week and picks for the Sun’s handicapping contest

By Case Keefer (contact)

Sunday, Oct. 18, 2015 | 2 a.m.

The Patriots’ odds will resemble the defending Super Bowl champions’ footballs in tonight’s game against the Colts. They’re both going to be fully inflated.

New England currently sits as a 9-point favorite at Indianapolis in a rematch of last year’s AFC Championship Game. The point spread is higher than anyone would have expected six months ago when the NFL released the 2015 season schedule.

The Sunday Night Football affair looked like the most anticipated matchup of the year back then given the teams’ projected strength and the Colts’ role in the “Deflategate” scandal. The cheating allegations of the Patriots using footballs with a below-regulation PSI took off when the Colts reported their suspicions to the NFL during the teams’ last meeting, a 45-7 New England victory.

An ensuing and protracted investigation concluded with the league levying a four-game suspension against Patriots quarterback Tom Brady, which would have made his season debut come against the Colts.

Indianapolis held as a 1-point favorite over New England for months at CG Technology sports books while the process played out and ultimately concluded with a federal judge overturning the punishment. The line started swinging the other way almost immediately with the Patriots looking as unstoppable as their 2007 undefeated regular-season team in commencing the season 4-0 straight-up, 3-1 against the spread. The Colts appeared impeded at best with injury and turnover issues contributing to a 3-2 straight-up, 1-4 against the spread start where they’ve been outgained in every game.

The line shot up to New England minus-5 last week before re-opening at 7 after last Sunday’s games. New England reached as high as minus-10 midweek with upwards of 90 percent of the action in sports books.

It’s up to three sportswriters to make sense of the transient point spread in the Sun’s handicapping competition. New England at Indianapolis is the game of the week and a must-pick in the contest that requires five other wagers off of the South Point betting. All the selections are available at the bottom of the page.

The Patriots are such a prevalent pick because of a perception that they’re out to exact revenge on the Colts. That’s not, or at least shouldn’t be, the only reason.

New England has played like an overused air pump so far this season, pressuring opponents until they explode. The Patriots’ lone against the spread loss came in week 1, when the Steelers rallied furiously for a backdoor cover in a 28-21 loss as 7.5-point underdogs.

The Patriots have gone on to beat their next three opponents by an average of 22 points per game, covering by an average of 15 points. They’ve tracked as the fifth-best team of the last 30 years through five weeks by Football Outsiders’ DVOA ratings.

Brady leads the NFL in passer rating with 11 touchdowns to no interceptions. Top receiver Julian Edelman and freakish tight end Rob Gronkowski each rank within the top 10 in receiving yards per game.

New England gambled on Super Bowl hero and second-year pro Malcolm Butler emerging as more than a one-hit wonder, and so far it’s paid off. Despite thrusting the inexperienced Butler into the secondary’s lead role, the Patriots are in the NFL’s top 10 at allowing just 6.6 yards per pass attempt.

Indianapolis quarterback Andrew Luck is the type of player who could carve into that number, but there’s no promise he’ll play after missing the last two games with an injured shoulder. New England has been the one frequent opponent to figure out Luck anyway.

The former No. 1 pick and fourth-year pro out is 0-4 straight-up and against the spread versus Patriots, including back-to-back playoff eliminations. Luck is completing barely 50 percent of his passes against New England at 83-for-163 passing with six touchdowns and eight interceptions.

He’s proof to the weight of the cliché that New England coach Bill Belichick succeeds in taking away whatever an opponent does best. But that begs the question, what will Belichick scheme against in a season where the Colts have so far shown no overwhelming attribute?

Indianapolis rates below average in both passing offense and rushing offense in DVOA. Luck has seven interceptions to five touchdowns in the three games he’s played before the solid but unspectacular 40-year-old backup Matt Hasselbeck filled in.

The running game has come out from under the rock bottom of the Trent Richardson years, but the Colts are still 22nd in the NFL with just 12 runs of more than 10 yards. Further dragging them down are a pair of goal line fumbles by typically reliable 32-year-old running back Frank Gore.

If they’ve improved anywhere, it’s in rush defense. Indianapolis starts an entire new defensive line — including rookies David Parry and Henry Anderson, who were former teammates of Luck at Stanford — that’s allowing only 3.8 yards per carry.

How the Patriots respond to the new personnel will make for an interesting study, as they’ve preferred to attack the Colts on the ground in the past. In the four recent games, New England has rushed for an average of 5 yards per carry and a total of 15 touchdowns against Indianapolis.

Game plan specifics register as trivial details to the betting public, which is throwing money on the Patriots like the outcome is already deiced. The only thing gamblers see leaving Lucas Oil Field deflated are the Colts’ hopes to get back into the Super Bowl conversation.

Check below for all of this week’s picks for the handicapping contest. Games are listed in order of sports books’ rotation numbers.

Case Keefer (2012 & 2014 champion, 2013 co-champion)

2015 Record: 18-11-1 (4-1-1 last week)

Bills plus-3 vs. Bengals

Jaguars minus-1 vs. Texans

Lions minus-3 vs. Bears

Steelers plus-3.5 vs. Cardinals

Ravens minus-2 at 49ers

Patriots at Colts over 54.5

Taylor Bern

2015 Record: 14-14-2 (3-1-2 last week)

Texans at Jaguars over 43

Bears plus-3 at Lions

Titans minus-1.5 vs. Dolphins

Ravens minus-2 at 49ers

Patriots minus-9 at Colts

Eagles minus-4.5 vs. Giants

Ray Brewer (2013 co-champion)

2015 Record: 13-15-2 (0-4-2 last week)

Jaguars minus-1 vs. Texans

Lions minus-3 vs. Bears

Jets minus-6.5 vs. Redskins

Cardinals at Steelers over 44.5

Colts plus-9 vs. Patriots

Giants plus-4.5 at Eagles

Case Keefer can be reached at 702-948-2790 or [email protected]. Follow Case on Twitter at twitter.com/casekeefer.