Week 5 NFL game of the week and picks for the Sun’s handicapping contest

By Case Keefer (contact)

Sunday, Oct. 11, 2015 | 2 a.m.

It’s easy to envision Andy Dalton as the NFL’s equivalent of Terry Malloy from “On the Waterfront.”

The last four Cincinnati Bengals’ seasons more or less climaxed with the enigmatic quarterback bellowing, “I coulda’ been a contender,” after making poor decisions to witness everything crash down around him. The modern Bengals are a mostly tragic tale with limitless potential followed by inexplicable decline aired annually.

Each of Dalton’s four years at the controls have ended with an opening-round playoff loss, leaving Cincinnati the first franchise to ever suffer such a fate.

The Bengals looked like one of the best teams in the league last year in starting 3-0 straight-up and against the spread. They then failed to cover by at least a touchdown in their next three games, including embarrassing 42-17 and 27-0 losses to the Patriots and Colts respectively, to fall back toward the middle.

The experience felt much like 2013 when Cincinnati emerged as one of the hottest teams in the league at closing the regular season with a 5-1 straight-up and against the spread run. San Diego terminated Cincinnati from there 27-10 as a touchdown underdog on the road courtesy of three Dalton turnovers.

With a knockout 4-0 straight-up and against the spread so far in the 2015 season, the Bengals are staring at another breakthrough with a chance to stay contenders. It sets up eerily perfect this time around with the Bengals’ game of reckoning coming against the NFL’s best franchise over the last few years.

Cincinnati lays three points at home to the Seattle Seahawks in a 10 a.m. kickoff this morning. The Las Vegas Sun handicapping contest sees the matchup as another spot where the Bengals will be exposed. All three prognosticators sided with the Seahawks in the required game of the week selection that goes with five other wagers off of the South Point betting board, all of which are listed at the bottom of the page.

The betting market is more bought in with the Bengals, quickly moving the point spread off the shorter minus-1 when sports books posted it last Sunday.

The Bengals are roaring up a variety of betting boards, including improving to 10-to-1 from 40-to-1 to win the Super Bowl at the Westgate Las Vegas Superbook over the last month. The Seahawks remain one of three teams still ahead of the Bengals in the future book, along with the Packers and Patriots.

But the two-time defending NFC champions have seen their odds rise from 9-to-2 to 6-to-1 with an uneven 2-2 straight-up, 1-3 against the spread beginning to the year.

Cincinnati is now offered at minus-330 (risking $3.30 to win $1) to win the AFC North from an opening price of plus-250 (risking $1 to win $2.50), implying a 50 percent increase in its chances to take the division. Seattle is also a slight favorite to win its division, at minus-160 in the NFC West, but there’s no question which team has played better so far — on both sides of the ball no less.

Cincinnati has emerged as a true revelation on offense, out way ahead of the rest of the league in averaging 7 yards per play. Dalton ranks second in pass efficiency behind only Green Bay’s Aaron Rodgers after averaging 10.23 yards per attempt with nine touchdowns to one interception.

Third-year running back Giovani Bernard is third in the NFL with 5.5 yards per carry while second-year player Jeremy Hill rates second with five rushing touchdowns.

Seattle has stayed strong on defense, not allowing an offensive touchdown in the two games since Kam Chancellor restored order to the “Legion of Boom” secondary, but has posted nowhere near Cincinnati’s offensive numbers. The Seahawks are dead average, 15th both against the run and pass, in Football Outsiders’ DVOA ratings for the year.

More worrisome is a relatively anemic pass rush that’s produced only six sacks. Getting pressure is paramount against the Bengals, as protecting Dalton has been their biggest asset.

Starting tackles Andrew Whitworth and Andre Smith have played at a Pro Bowl level to lead the offensive line to the best adjusted sack rate in the NFL. Seattle is in last in the same category, which is the main culprit for why it’s 24th in passing DVOA.

The Seahawks have rushed more efficiently, ranking 10th in DVOA, but starter Marshawn Lynch is slated to miss his second straight game with a hip injury against the Bengals. Cincinnati has also shored up last year’s weakness for stopping the run with Geno Atkins and Domata Peko healthy in the middle of the defense.

Although Seattle is an excellent 47-27-2 against the spread under coach Pete Carroll, it’s slipped on the road at 4-6 versus the spread over the last two seasons.

Because of the infrequent nature of the cross-conference series, Seattle hasn’t won in Cincinnati since 1993 when then third-year kicker John Kasay accounted for 13 of its 19 points. That was five years after the last time Cincinnati started a year 5-0, with the Boomer Esiason-led 1988 team that won the AFC championship.

If Dalton can get the Bengals back there, it might officially signal the time to find him a comparison to a different Marlon Brando character.

Check below for full picks from week 6 of the handicapping contest. Games are listed in order of sports books’ rotation numbers.

Case Keefer (2012 & 2014 champion, 2013 co-champion)

2015 Record: 14-10 (4-2 last week)

Redskins plus-7.5 at Falcons

Eagles minus-5 vs. Saints

Seahawks plus-3 at Bengals

Cardinals minus-2.5 at Lions

Raiders plus-4.5 vs. Broncos

49ers plus-7 at Giants

Ray Brewer (2013 co-champion)

2015 Record: 13-11 (3-3 last week)

Titans plus-1 vs. Bills

Rams at Packers over 46

Seahawks plus-3 at Bengals

Lions plus-2.5 vs. Cardinals

Cowboys plus-9.5 vs. Patriots

Steelers at Chargers over 45.5

Taylor Bern

2015 Record: 11-13 (2-4 last week)

Bills minus-1 at Titans

Bears plus-9.5 at Chiefs

Seahawks plus-3 at Bengals

Cardinals minus-2.5 at Lions

Giants minus-7 vs. 49ers

Steelers plus-3.5 at Chargers

Case Keefer can be reached at 702-948-2790 or [email protected]. Follow Case on Twitter at twitter.com/casekeefer.