Week 4 NFL game of the week and picks for the Sun’s handicapping contest

By Case Keefer (contact)

Sunday, Oct. 4, 2015 | 2 a.m.

Bled dry from the early spate of NFL games last Sunday, sports books needed better results in the afternoon kickoffs to keep from falling deeper into the financial desert.

The San Francisco 49ers, 7-point underdogs at Arizona, were one potential rescuer. The viability of that bailout lasted less than six minutes until Cardinals defensive backs Justin Bethel and Tyrann Mathieu returned interceptions for touchdowns to give their team a 14-0 lead before they ever had a second offensive possession.

The Cardinals left bookmakers stranded and spiraling further into the red with a 47-7 victory. It was never an effective escape plan, not with the way the Cardinals’ season has started.

Arizona has made friends with the northern neighbors by opening the season 3-0 straight-up and against the spread, as the vast majority of Nevada gamblers have been on its side in every game. The Cardinals have never even put the betting public in danger.

Arizona has covered by an average of 22 points per game in a historically dominant three-week stretch. The four other teams that stood at 3-0 versus the closing number — Pittsburgh, Cincinnati, Denver, Atlanta and Green Bay — averaged beating the spread by five points per game.

The Cardinals can’t stay this callous against the casinos, not with sports books raising the asking price on them beginning this weekend against the Saint Louis Rams. Arizona was only a 4-point favorite over St. Louis on the early lines last week but the win over San Francisco paired with the Rams’ 12-6 loss as a 1-point favorite against the Steelers scorched the house into action.

Shops have added an extra field goal as the Cardinals now lay 7 points to the Rams on the spread in a game that kicks off at 1:25 from University of Phoenix Stadium. None of the three sportswriters in the Las Vegas Sun handicapping contest are rushing to the South Point betting board give the higher number. They all chose the Rams in the required game of the week to go with their five other selections, which are available at the bottom of the page.

The selection can’t have anything to do with recent matchups in the series, as Arizona is 4-0 against the spread versus St. Louis since current coach Bruce Arians took over in 2013. That includes week 13 of last season when backup quarterback Drew Stanton went down with an injury to press emergency signal caller Ryan Lindley off the bench to preserve a 12-6 victory on the road.

The Cardinals are a little better off now with starter Carson Palmer recovered from the second ACL surgery of his career. Palmer has led them to an NFL-best 6.6 yards per play so far while ranking fourth in passer rating and yards per attempt.

The defense has played just as well, if not better, with Mathieu, Patrick Peterson and company having the Cardinals rank second in Football Outsiders’ DVOA, the sport’s preeminent performance metric.

Arizona is in DVOA’s top five in all three phases of the game — offense, defense and special teams — to rate as one of the six best teams through three weeks of the last 30 years.

The efficiency is noticed in Las Vegas, where the Cardinals fell from 30-to-1 in the preseason to 10-to-1 currently to win the Super Bowl at the Westgate Las Vegas Superbook.

The Rams are trending the other way, resting at 50-to-1 just before the season kicked off to 100-to-1 now. They briefly went down to 40-to-1 after upsetting the Seahawks 34-31 as 3.5-point underdogs in week 1, but have since lost in back-to-back weeks as a favorite.

St. Louis’ defense has continued to mount more pressure than any team — posting a gaudy 12 percent adjusted sack rate — with the NFL’s best defensive line starring Aaron Donald and Robert Quinn, but its offense has slowed to a crawl in defeats to Washington and Pittsburgh.

Quarterback Nick Foles has barely average 5.5 yards per pass attempt in the last two games with the running game still stuck below 4 yards per carry on the season.

The Rams project as the toughest opponent yet for the Cardinals regardless. For all of Arizona’s successes, it must be accounted that it came against likely three of the bottom 10 teams in the league.

San Francisco, Chicago and New Orleans are a combined 2-4 straight-up, 1-5 against the spread outside of their blowout losses to Arizona.

St. Louis coach Jeff Fisher is stronger when the odds are against him anyway, going 99-66-2 versus the spread when taking points. Even that win percentage can’t compare to the profitability of Arizona’s Bruce Arians, who’s 33-14-1 against the spread overall as a coach starting with his interim role in Indianapolis three years ago.

Sports book directors aren’t thrilled with lining up on the wrong side of that production, but they have no other choice. As long as Arizona keeps covering, the action will stay on it in spite the rising cost.

If the first three weeks repeat, the Cardinals will lend no assistance to casinos’ travails.

Check below for full picks from this week’s handicapping contest. Games are listed in order of sports books’ rotation numbers.

Case Keefer (2012 & 2014 champion, 2013 co-champion)

2015 Record: 10-8 (2-4 last week)

Buccaneers plus-3.5 vs. Panthers

Giants plus-5 at Bills

Redskins plus-3 vs. Eagles

Chargers minus-7.5 vs. Browns

Vikings plus-6.5 at Broncos

Rams plus-7 at Cardinals

Ray Brewer (2013 co-champion)

2015 Record: 10-8 (4-2 last week)

Jets minus-1.5 vs. Dolphins in London

Colts at Jaguars over 47.5

Texans plus-6.5 at Falcons

Buccaneers plus-3.5 vs. Panthers

Redskins plus-3 vs. Eagles

Rams plus-7 at Cardinals

Taylor Bern

2015 Record: 9-9 (3-3 last week)

Texans plus-6.5 at Falcons

Giants plus-5 at Bills

Raiders minus-3 at Bears

Eagles minus-3 at Redskins

Chiefs plus-4 at Bengals

Rams plus-7 at Cardinals

Case Keefer can be reached at 702-948-2790 or [email protected]. Follow Case on Twitter at twitter.com/casekeefer.