College football by the odds: Vegas picks and preview of Week 10

ASSOCIATED PRESS

In this Saturday, Oct. 29, 2016, file photo, Texas A&M’s Trevor Knight (8) sways along with teammates during the singing of the Aggie “War Hymn” after the team’s 52-10 win over New Mexico State in an NCAA college football game in College Station, Texas. Texas A&M was ranked fourth behind Alabama, Clemson and Michigan in the season’s first College Football Playoff rankings, announced Tuesday, Nov. 1, 2016.

By Case Keefer (contact)

Saturday, Nov. 5, 2016 | 2 a.m.

Bettors were picking apart and cursing the seven primary national championship contenders a few days before the College Football Playoff selection committee officially ranked them for the first time.

None of the top teams in the nation covered in Week 9. No. 1 Alabama is absolved of any responsibility since it was on a bye week, but the six teams behind it were all guilty of producing a loss in sports books.

It started with No. 3 Michigan, which only beat rival Michigan State 32-23 as 24.5-point favorites in a morning kickoff, and continued until a primetime game where Clemson eked out a 37-34 victory over Florida State as a 4.5-point favorite.

Even committee darling Texas A&M, which oddsmakers would rate much lower than its No. 4 standing, fell just short of beating its 43.5-point number in a 52-10 win over New Mexico State.

Considering the point spread only comes into play in roughly a third of college football games, it was a true statistical anomaly to see every top team in action win but not cover. It was also beneficial for casinos.

Most bettors back the best teams regardless of the numbers, especially on parlays, and that inadvertently sets up the house to have a big score when none of them beats the number. It’s nothing new for this college football season, which has been strong for the sports books.

Talking Points wants to help cut into their profit margin, but is going to need a better effort than the last three weeks. A prolonged losing streak has dropped the blog’s season-long record to 67-64-3 against the spread.

We’ll try to right it below with betting previews and picks on the 10 biggest games of the week in three separate confidence categories, and also extra bets from deeper on the board. Lines are the best currently available locally on the chosen side.

AP Photo/Jim Lytle

Texas A&M minus-12 at Mississippi State, over/under: 62.5; 9 a.m. on SEC Network

It wasn’t just last week that the Aggies burned bettors who jumped aboard to back them.

They failed to cover a single point spread in October, evening their overall record to 4-4 versus the number. Oddsmakers were too low on Texas A&M going into the season, and now it appears they are too high on it.

The Aggies, for the record, would be underdogs to each of the three teams controversially below them in the College Football Playoff rankings. Neither the rankings uproar nor the losing streak against the spread were enough to keep bettors away from Texas A&M this week.

The Aggies have attracted about three of every four tickets in sports books, pushing this spread from opening as low as minus-10.5 to as high as minus-14. The Bulldogs haven’t ingratiated themselves to gamblers much lately either.

They’ve lost four of five against the spread, with the only cover coming by a half point as 7.5-point underdogs in an overtime 28-21 loss at BYU. It’s been a steep fall from grace in Starkville, Miss., without Dak Prescott, who amazingly led Mississippi State to being the No. 1 ranked team in the first-ever College Football Playoff rankings two years ago.

Guess: Under 62.5 points
AP Photo/Timothy D. Easley

Louisville minus-24 at Boston College, over/under: 55.5; 9 a.m. on ESPN2

Louisville is one of the teams that oddsmakers would rate as having no business sitting behind Texas A&M in the rankings. On a neutral field, the Cardinals would lay around 10 points to the Aggies.

There’s no disputing that the Cardinals have come down from their dizzying heights in the last few weeks, though. A gallery of Virginia students waiting to rush the field at Scott Stadium with less than a minute left in Louisville’s last game displayed as much.

The Cardinals ultimately prevented the flood of humanity from happening when Heisman shoe-in Lamar Jackson — he’s currently minus-300 to win the award — connected with Jaylen Smith for a 29-yard touchdown with 13 seconds to go to win 32-25. But that meant they failed to cover the spread by 25 points, the second time in three weeks they’ve fallen that short.

Louisville was a 35-point favorite ahead of its 24-14 win against Duke. The spread is shorter this week partly because Boston College is ferocious on defense.

The Eagles are third in the nation against the run according to Football Outsiders’ S&P ratings. The same metric has the Cardinals as the most efficient running team in the country.

Boston College snapped a 12-game ACC losing streak in a 21-14 victory over NC State as 16-point underdogs last week, though it’s still 3-8-2 against the spread in conference over the last two seasons.

Guess: Louisville minus-24
AP Photo/Charlie Neibergall

Wisconsin minus-7 at Northwestern, over/under: 41; 9 a.m. on ABC

Wisconsin at 40-to-1 might look attractive to anyone shopping for a long-shot team to back in the future odds to win the national championship.

Sitting at No. 8 at the College Football rankings, the Badgers could be obvious beneficiaries of the bizarreness November sometimes brings. And they might not even need it.

Although it sits a game behind Nebraska in the Big Ten West division, Wisconsin is the favorite because the Cornhuskers have a much tougher remaining schedule and already lost 23-17 to the Badgers last week. If the Badgers do advance to the Big Ten Championship Game, it would be difficult to deny them entry into the playoff if they upset Michigan or Ohio State — two teams they already covered against by falling by a touchdown to each.

Northwestern is the most likely team to wrench this plan, as it’s the only game where Wisconsin will be less than a touchdown favorite left in the regular season. The Wildcats’ offense has finally come together in a four-game covering streak.

They’ve endured the growing pains of sophomore quarterback Clayton Thorson and are now up to gaining 5.1 yards per play, still mediocre but well above last year’s 4.2 yard tally. Wisconsin is playing better offensively too, having averaged 5.7 yards per play over the last three weeks despite having not fully committed to either Alex Hornibrook or Bart Houston at quarterback.

The Badgers haven’t needed to with one-two punch of Corey Clement and Dare Ogunbowale at running back.

Lean: Over 41 points
AP Photo/Nick Wass

Maryland plus-31 at Michigan, over/under: 54; 12:30 p.m. on ESPN

Maryland coach D.J. Durkin said he learned “a long list of things” in five seasons coaching under Michigan coach Jim Harbaugh.

The early returns would indicate covering point spreads wasn’t one of them. In both the NFL and college football, Harbuagh has been one of the most profitable coaches to bet on over the last decade.

He’s 39-32 against the spread coaching at the Football Bowl Subdivision level. Maryland is only 3-5 versus the number in the first year under Harbaugh’s former defensive coordinator, having dropped three of its last four both straight-up and against the spread.

But on the field, Durkin is showing many of the same tendencies as Harbaugh. The Terrapins have run the ball on 60.7 percent of plays against FBS opposition, ranking 22nd in the nation.

The Wolverines are 20th at 60.9 percent. It might be a surprise to learn Maryland is running more efficiently, with 5.5 yards per carry to Michigan’s 5.4 yards per carry.

Maryland’s lead running backs Ty Johnson and Lorenzo Harrison are averaging 8.6 yards per carry and have scored 10 touchdowns. Michigan’s top two rushers, De’Veon Smith and Chris Evans, are at eight combined touchdowns and 6.1 yards per carry.

Lean: Maryland plus-31
AP Photo/Tony Gutierrez

Florida minus-4 at Arkansas, over/under: 47; 12:30 p.m. on CBS

With the public often overvaluing the impact of a single game and thinking with recency bias, sharp bettors traditionally wind up backing teams coming off of big losses.

They’re taking it to an extreme this week. Arkansas was a popular early bet after losing 56-3 as 10.5-point underdogs against Auburn in its last game.

The big money has drug the Razorbacks down from opening as high as a 5.5-point underdog. Arkansas hasn’t played in two weeks since the second-biggest loss of coach Bret Bielema’s tenure.

But the bye might be the only advantage it has against Florida, which has surged with two wins and covers since the return of injured quarterback Luke Del Rio. The Gators are still led by their defense, which is tied with Michigan for the national lead in giving up only 3.8 yards per play against Football Bowl Subdivision opponents.

Only Texas Tech and Rice are worse in that category than Arkansas, which has surrendered 6.8 yards per play. It looked like a rebuilding year for Arkansas, but it surpassed expectations early with upsets over Ole Miss and TCU behind junior quarterback Austin Allen ranking near the top of the nation in passing yards.

Now the Razorbacks need to pull one upset at home over the next two weeks — they follow this game by hosting LSU — to avoid falling to .500 straight-up at 5-5. Arkansas hasn’t beaten Florida since 1981 Bluebonnet Bowl, and are 1-8 against the spread in the series.

Lean: Florida minus-4
AP Photo/Sue Ogrocki

Oklahoma State plus-3 at Kansas State, over/under: 58; 12:30 p.m. on ESPN 2

Maybe Oklahoma State wasn’t considered enough as a contender in the Big 12.

The Cowboys were largely written off after falling victim to a 30-27 upset that shouldn’t have been against Central Michigan as a 17.5-point favorite in week 2. Their chances were perceived as even longer than the 6-to-1 odds that made them the third choice in the conference going into the season.

But after last week’s 37-20 win against West Virginia as 3.5-point underdogs, Oklahoma State sits alone in second with a season-closing date against No. 1 Oklahoma still to come. The Cowboys have won four straight, covering in all but one.

The fact that bettors haven’t pounded them with wagers following the hot streak — the Cowboys actually opened plus-2.5 at Kansas State — might be a sign of deference to Kansas State’s Bill Snyder, one of the best covering coaches of all-time.

The Wildcats have played in back-to-back close games but pulled both out — a 24-21 win over Texas as 1-point underdogs and a 31-26 victory at Iowa State as 6-point favorites. That’s the Snyder effect.

Like Oklahoma State, Kansas State’s biggest issue might be a one-dimensional offense. The Wildcats are No. 49 nationally rushing in S&P behind run-first quarterback Jesse Ertz and senior back Charles Jones, but No. 118 in passing.

Oklahoma State is No. 36 in passing with junior quarterback Mason Rudolph having thrown for 17 touchdowns to two interceptions but No. 103 in rushing.

Lean: Oklahoma State plus-3
AP Photo/Chris Knight

Iowa plus-7 at Penn State, over/under: 52.5; 4:30 p.m. on Big Ten Network

Based on this betting line, there’s a 75 percent chance bettors who took Penn State to go over its win total in the preseason will have a ticket to cash by Saturday night.

There’s the same likelihood that anyone who took Iowa will have one to trash. The Nittany Lions and Hawkeyes have switched fortunes this season, and mostly because of results over the last month.

Penn State has won and covered in four straight, putting it one victory away from matching its over of seven wins this season. Iowa has lost two if its last four both straight-up and against the spread — a 17-9 defeat to Wisconsin as 3.5-point underdogs and a 38-31 setback to Northwestern as an 11-point favorite — to make reaching its over of 8.5 victories impossible with any more losses.

Not all bettors have given up on them, though. This game has attracted even action, which isn’t surprising considering Iowa’s offense has actually improved this season.

The Hawkeyes are potent on the ground with running backs Akrum Wadley and LeShun Daniels.

Penn State has returned to its roots for shutdown defenses, as safeties Marcus Allen and Malik Golden have led a secondary giving up only 5.9 yards per passing attempt.

Guess: Penn State minus-7
AP Photo/Butch Dill

Alabama minus-8 at LSU, over/under: 45; 5 p.m. on CBS

Both Alabama and LSU enter their annually massive matchup off of three straight victories where they covered by an average of double digits.

The difference comes in competition level, as Alabama outscored Texas A&M, Tennessee and Arkansas by a total of 65 points. LSU beat a weaker slate of Ole Miss, Southern Miss and Missouri by a total of 87 points.

It’s also unfair to evaluate without the first part of their schedules, where LSU failed cover in its first five games while Alabama went 3-2 versus the number but blew out every team it faced other than Ole Miss. But that’s what Alabama coach Nick Saban demanded.

He said LSU should be considered undefeated since it’s a different team under interim coach Ed Orgeron. The Tigers have kickstarted their offense since Orgeron’s promotion, capped in their last game when junior running back Leonard Fournette went 284 yards and nearly 18 yards per carry.

Of course, Fournette averaged less than 2 yards and totaled 31 in last year’s 31-14 loss at Alabama.

And the Crimson Tide’s rush defense is somehow even stronger this year, decreasing from giving up 2.3 yards per running attempt last year to 2.2 this year. Alabama defensive lineman Da’Ron Payne, Jonathan Allen and Dalvin Tomlinson have controlled the line of scrimmage in every game, but LSU might be the best offensive line they’ve faced.

This is the fifth straight year Alabama has given at least a touchdown on the betting line in the series, and it’s covered in three of them while going 4-0 straight-up.

Play: LSU plus-8
AP Photo/Jay LaPrete

Nebraska plus-17 at Ohio State, over/under: 51; 5 p.m. on ABC

For perhaps the first time during Urban Meyer’s tenure, bettors are totally out on the Buckeyes.

Ohio State’s fourth consecutive loss against the spread, a 24-20 win over Northwestern as 26-point favorites last week, prompted the mass exodus. Reports indicate upwards of 80 percent of the tickets for this week’s game are on Nebraska, which lost some of its own shine last week by suffering its first loss of the season.

The Cornhuskers fell 23-17 at Wisconsin in overtime, though still covered the 9-point spread.

Nebraska has treated backers well all season, sitting at second in the Big Ten with a 5-2-1 against the spread record. Four-year starting quarterback Tommy Armstrong has been the one to thank, as he racked up more than 2,000 total yards of offense.

Ohio State counterpart J.T. Barrett is also above the milestone, but the majority of it came in the first four games when the Buckeyes worked their way down to as low as a 5-to-2 co-favorite to win the national championship.

They boosted slightly upwards, to 3-to-1, following a 24-21 loss to Penn State as a 17.5-point underdog, but if betting patterns on this week’s game are any indication, no one is taking the price.

Guess: Ohio State minus-17
AP Photo/Rick Bowmer

Washington minus-17 at California, over/under: 77.5; 7:30 p.m. on ESPN

It’s the “Bear Raid” versus the Huskies’ shades.

Few teams in the nation throw more often than California, which goes to the air on 60.7 percent of its offensive plays with Texas Tech transfer quarterback Davis Webb. Few teams stop the pass better than Washington, which is giving up only 5.3 yards per pass attempt with shutdown defensive backs Budda Baker and Sidney Jones.

Even in its close call at Utah last week, Washington surrendered only 5.2 yards per pass. The Huskies were more vulnerable against the run, leading them to need Dante Pettis’ fifth career passing touchdown in the final minutes to pull out a 31-24 victory as 10-point favorites.

With another tough game hosting USC on deck — Washington is currently a 9-point favorite — the Huskies travel to Berkley, Calif., in what looks like a difficult spot. It’s not getting bet that way.

Washington has taken two out of every three tickets, pushing the spread up from its opening minus-16.

California is perfect straight-up and against the spread at home this season, though all three games have been close. The Golden Bears have beaten Utah, Texas and Oregon by a total of 15 points in the contests.

Guess: California plus-17
L.E. Baskow

Extra points

Hawaii plus-22 at San Diego State Rainbow Warriors are much improved in their first season under coach Nick Rolovich, and have actually posted a plus-32 point differential in Mountain West Conference play. The only game they’ve lost by more this point spread came at Michigan.

Notre Dame minus-6 vs. Navy One area Notre Dame hasn’t struggled during in this disaster of a year is stopping the run. Linebackers Nyles Morgan and Te’von Coney won’t allow Navy’s triple option to change that.

Wake Forest minus-2.5 vs. Virginia Can’t get swayed by one week’s results too much when handicapping. Virginia, which narrowly lost 35-25 to Louisville, looked much better than Wake Forest, which struggled in a 21-13 loss to Army, last week but a larger sample of the season as a whole indicates this line is too short.

North Texas plus-20.5 vs. Louisiana Tech Bulldogs have become overvalued after four consecutive covers and five straight wins. They gave fewer points than this in their last two road games, against Florida International and Massachusetts, two teams far worse than North Texas.

Missouri plus-7 at South Carolina South Carolina is 111th in the nation in gaining 4.7 yards per play. It shouldn’t lay a touchdown against almost anyone.

Minnesota minus-17 vs. Purdue Going to keep paying to go against Purdue as long as the price is right. The spread looks short enough here considering Minnesota — whose two were both extremely close — might be undervalued.

Miami minus-3 vs. Pittsburgh A nice spot to buy low on Miami, which still has a lot of talent and strong leadership despite a four-game losing streak. Three of the four setbacks were more or less evenly played, meaning the Hurricanes were unlucky to go winless.