AP Photo/Tony Gutierrez
Baylor quarterback Seth Russell (17) leaps but is hit by Kansas linebacker Mike Lee (11) before entering the end zone for a touchdown after a short run in the first half of an NCAA college football game, Saturday, Oct. 15, 2016, in Waco, Texas.
Saturday, Oct. 29, 2016 | 2 a.m.
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College football fans mostly banished the Big 12 from the national conversation after the league’s traditional powers collectively struggled in non-conference play.
They’re missing out. Not only is the Big 12 producing some wildly entertaining games, living up to its reputation for a lot of offense and not a whole lot of defense, but it also might have the most compelling championship race.
The four other major conferences have played out roughly according to plan through the first half of the year. Teams that were the favorites or second favorites in preseason futures to win their respective conferences are at the top of the standings with the best chances to reach the College Football Playoff.
Not in the Big 12. The two undefeated teams, Baylor and West Virginia, came into the season as the fourth and six choices, respectively, to win the conference.
The Mountaineers might be one of the best stories in college football. Most had assumed this would be coach Dana Holgorsen’s final season, but he’s rallied to the nation’s most dramatic drop in odds to win the national championship.
West Virginia now sits at 40-to-1 at the Westgate Las Vegas Superbook after coming into the season 300-to-1.
It’s a little more difficult to discuss the Bears. Baylor went through a troubling offseason sexual assault scandal that cost coach Art Briles his job and greatly diminished its championship prospects.
But interim coach Jim Grobe has stabilized the situation, getting Baylor back down to 30-to-1 in the futures after reaching as high as 50-to-1 in the summer.
Both teams have one of their toughest games so far by the odds this season today as slight road favorites at middle of the pack conference foes. And they both must still face Oklahoma, who’s undefeated in conference, in the coming weeks.
But in the meantime they’ve given the Big 12 a boost it needs — even if some aren’t watching.
There’s a strong Big 12 flavor to this week’s college football by the odds, which previews and picks the 10 biggest games of the week with extra bets at the end below. After a second straight disappointing 6-9-1 record last week, the overall mark for the year stands at 63-53-5.
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West Virginia minus-3.5 at Oklahoma State, over/under: 65.5; 9 a.m. on Fox
Obliterating point spreads creates a quick route to increasing respect.
It’s worked for West Virginia. Despite winning their first four games, the Mountaineers encountered a fair deal of skepticism considering two of the wins were by a total of four points.
They were also only 1-3 against the spread and had to hold on at the goal line for the lone cover, a 26-11 victory against Missouri as 11-point favorites. In the two games since then, West Virginia has hit a new level.
It’s covered by a total of 47 points in blowout victories over Texas Tech and TCU in the last two weeks. Those wins delivered undefeated West Virginia inside the AP poll’s top 10 for the first time in four years, and made it a Big 12 road favorite for a fourth consecutive game dating back to last year.
The Mountaineers are 2-1 straight-up and against the spread in the last three such contests, using their defense to slow down opponents in a league known for high scoring. Oklahoma State fits right with the stereotype, as the Cowboys are electric on offense with one of the nation’s most proficient passers in Mason Rudolph and receivers in James Washington but toothless on defense.
Oklahoma State is surrendering 6.1 yards per play, a full 1.2 yards less than West Virginia.
Lean: West Virginia minus-3.5
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Michigan State plus-24.5 at Michigan, over/under: 54; 9 a.m. on ESPN
Michigan State is going to need a miracle on par with last year’s game-winning last-second fumbled punt return to beat Michigan this season.
This is the biggest underdog the Spartans have been against their in-state rival since 1992, when Elvis Grbac led the Wolverines to a 35-10 victory but didn’t cover the 28-point spread. And the number is growing.
Michigan opened as low as minus-18 and now stands as high as a 25-point favorite.
That’s because there’s nothing indicating the Spartans can compete with the Wolverines. Michigan State has lost five straight both straight-up and against the spread behind an impotent rushing attack and feeble pass defense — areas where previous Mark Dantonio-coached teams excelled.
The Spartans now must win four of their final five to prevent their first losing regular season under Dantonio. As an underdog in three of them — hosting Ohio State and traveling to Penn State joining the Michigan — that will be nearly impossible.
The Wolverines are winning by an average of 39 points per game, the highest mark in the nation. Their defense is getting much of the credit — do-everything linebacker Jabrill Peppers is down to a 12-to-1 fourth choice to win the Heisman — but the offense has been nearly as good.
Michigan’s four primary rushers — De’Veon Smith, Ty Isaac, Chris Evans and Karan Higdon — combine to average 6.5 yards per carry.
Guess: Michigan minus-24.5
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Georgia plus-7.5 vs. Florida in Jacksonville, over/under: 43.5; 12:30 p.m. on CBS
As a horde of bettors could regale with their gripes, Georgia is coming off what’s possibly the most inexplicable loss of the college football season.
Georgia minus-14 hosting Vanderbilt was one of the most popular bets of the morning slate two weeks ago. The Bulldogs never came close to covering in the 17-16 loss, but they had every opportunity.
Georgia outgained Vanderbilt by 250 yards and 2.5 yards per play, but gave up wonky big plays and sabotaged its own scoring chances. It was the Bulldogs’ third outright loss in four games and dropped its against the spread record to 3-4 in a year where it’s often look unprepared under new coach Kirby Smart.
Florida has a worse 2-4 against the spread mark, but snapped a run of three straight non-covers by destroying Missouri 40-14 as 14-point favorites in its last game. The Gators have the third best defense in the nation by Football Outsiders’ S&P ratings with linebackers Jarrad Davis and Alex Anzalone emerging as a particularly versatile duo.
They haven’t been as consistent on offense, though their two best performances and covers came under quarterback Luke Del Rio, who returned from a knee injury against Missouri.
Georgia running back Nick Chubb came back from his own knee problems at the beginning of this year, but hasn’t been the same. In his junior year, Chubb is averaging three yards less per carry than in his sophomore season.
Guess: Georgia plus-7.5
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Baylor minus-3.5 at Texas, over/under: 72; 12:30 p.m. on ABC
For arguably the first time this season, Baylor has to play a real game.
The Bears seemingly annual tradition of playing a backloaded schedule was particularly noticeable this year as two of their first three Big 12 games were against conference beating posts Kansas and Iowa State. They’ve been favored by more than a touchdown in all six games so far with an average point spread of minus-30.
Grading their performance in those games is in the eye of the beholder. While Baylor is undefeated, it’s only 2-4 against the spread and not showing the same offensive firepower as in recent years.
Senior quarterback Seth Russell is averaging three yards less per passing attempt than last year, and senior running back Shock Linwood’s effectiveness is also slightly down.
On the other hand, Baylor has looked much improved on defense. It’s giving up only 4.2 yards per play, and safety Orion Stewart is one of 16 players in the nation already with four interceptions.
Texas’ defense, giving up 5.8 yards per play, has been a much bigger concern but it’s improved since coach Charlie Strong took over coordinator duties three weeks ago. The tougher schedule must be noted, though, as this is already the fourth time Texas has come into a game as an underdog.
The Longhorns didn’t win or cover in any of the previous three, but their last two losses to Kansas State and Oklahoma have come by a total of eight points.
Play: Texas plus-3.5
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Washington minus-10 at Utah, over/under: 53.5; 12:30 p.m. on Fox Sports 1
Washington coach Chris Petersen has called this week’s game the toughest of the season.
The odds wouldn’t agree. Betting lines still have a home game against USC in two weeks and a season finale at Washington State as closer calls, with spreads of minus-9.5 and minus-7, respectively. The Huskies were also only a 3.5-point favorite before smashing Stanford 44-6 three weeks ago.
The betting market may better see where Petersen is coming from. The early money was on Utah, as the spread went down from opening at minus-11.
Utah is a notoriously tough underdog, and it’s lived up to that by winning outright on four of the five most recent occasions when it’s taken points. That includes a 34-23 victory as 2-point underdogs at Washington last year.
Utah lost most of its best players off that team, but have exceeded expectations by sitting at 7-1 straight-up, 4-4 against the spread midway through the year. The Utes have yet to lose at home with Washington transfer Troy Williams directing the offense at quarterback.
But Washington hasn’t missed him with its own quarterback, sophomore Jake Browning, having posted the best passer rating of any quarterback in a Power Five conference. Browning has thrown for 9.9 yards per attempt with 26 touchdowns to two interceptions.
The Huskies are only 4-3 against the spread, but two of the lines they didn’t cover were in blowouts as a 36.5-point favorite versus Oregon State last week and 42.5-point favorite against Portland State in week 2
Guess: Washington minus-10
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Texas Tech plus-8.5 at TCU, over/under: 87; 12:30 p.m. on ESPN2
Texas Tech is going to fall just short of continuing to break records out of last week’s historic 66-59 loss against Oklahoma.
The game set a new all-time high with 1,708 combined total yards of offense as Texas Tech quarterback Patrick Mahomes III tied the record of 734 passing yards and moved into first with 819 total yards. It stood to reason that paired with another mediocre defense, TCU’s, this week’s game could have carried the highest over/under of all-time.
Instead, it’s currently falling three points short of the 90 posted on last Friday’s game between Oregon and California. Texas Tech vs. Oklahoma went over the 86-point total last week late in the third quarter.
TCU saw a second straight game fall under last week, but only because it’s not holding up its end of the bargain on offense. The Horned Frogs have gone well under their team total in failing to cover both games, a 34-10 loss to West Virginia as 5.5-point underdogs and a 24-23 victory over Kansas as 28-point favorites.
TCU is a Big 12-worst 1-6 against the spread this season. The Horned Frogs’ defense hasn’t taken the leap many expected with so many returning starters and currently ranks No. 63 in the nation by S&P.
The offense hasn’t been good enough to make up for the disappointment, especially in the last two weeks where junior quarterback Kenny Hill has barely mustered five yards per pass attempt. Texas Tech ranks last in the nation giving up 7.4 yards per play, so this would be the spot for TCU to turn it around.
Guess: TCU minus-8.5
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Northwestern plus-27.5 at Ohio State, over/under: 53.5; 12:30 p.m. on ESPN
Shrug.
That was the consensus response to Ohio State’s 24-21 loss at Penn State as 17.5-point favorites last week. The reasoning goes that the Buckeyes will still be in position to make the College Football Playoff as long as they close the season with a victory over Michigan, a game in which they’re currently a 4.5-point favorite.
That assumes Ohio State goes undefeated in the four games before that, which the odds might make out slightly more difficult than majority opinion. Projected lines give Ohio State about a 60 percent chance to do so.
The Buckeyes play improved programs each of the next three weeks. The Wildcats might have taken the biggest in-season leap of the bunch.
Northwestern has covered and won in three straight, two as underdogs, with an offense showing signs that it’s finally enough to complement a strong defense. Sophomore quarterback Clayton Thorson has thrown for 730 yards and nine touchdowns to one interception during the streak, boosting the offense up to 5.1 yards per play on the year.
That’s still mediocre, but a major improvement over the 4.2 yards per play it finished last year averaging. Thorson should find it harder to move the offense against the likes of Marshon Lattimore and Malik Hooker, which have helped Ohio State field the fifth-ranked pass defense in the nation by S&P.
Ohio State’s offense is sputtering, however, as it hasn’t scored as many points as this spread in regulation of either of the last two games.
Guess: Northwestern plus-27.5
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Nebraska plus-8.5 at Wisconsin, over/under: 43; 4 p.m. on ESPN
Sharp bettors have ditched Nebraska, as the Cornhuskers went from being an oft-backed team last year to a frequently faded one from the professionals this season.
It all has to do with the volatility of results in close games, and how that influences market prices. The Cornhuskers went 5-7 straight-up in last year’s regular season, largely because they were an unlucky 0-5 in games decided by less than a touchdown.
That made the masses undervalue them.
Regression has struck this year, as Nebraska is playing at practically the same level but seeing some breaks go its way. The Cornhuskers have won both its games decided by less than a touchdown, leading them to a 7-0 record that their statistical profile would imply is better than their actual level of play.
The public loves unbeaten records, though, so 70 percent of the tickets on today’s game are on Nebraska. And yet, the line has moved as much as 2.5 points from its opener of minus-7 towards Wisconsin because of the larger bets coming in on the home team.
This game will determine who’s the favorite in the Big Ten West division going forward and which team is the conference’s most profitable bet headed into the final month of the year. The Badgers are a Big Ten-best 6-1 against the spread with Nebraska closely behind at 5-2.
Although Wisconsin already has two losses, the difficulty of Nebraska’s remaining schedule — including road games at Ohio State and Iowa — would make the Badgers the most likely team to reach the Big Ten championship game with a victory.
Lean: Wisconsin minus-8.5
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Auburn minus-4.5 at Ole Miss, over/under: 63.5; 4:15 p.m. on SEC Network
Auburn was quite possibly the least bet favorite on the board last week, as the majority of gamblers were incredulous over Arkansas getting 10 points or more against the Tigers.
Oops. The Arkansas action turned out heist-like for casinos, as Auburn didn’t experience a second of struggle in a 56-3 annihilation.
Now sports books find the Tigers on the receiving end of a betting parade. Auburn is attracting a vast majority of the bets for its trip to Oxford, Miss.
Ole Miss’ two-game losing streak, with notably one of the defeats coming to Arkansas 34-30 as 10-point underdogs, has seen its support at the betting window dry up. And, on top of it, the Rebels don’t seem to match up well with the Tigers.
They aren’t even in the nation’s top 100 in giving up 5.4 yards per rushing attempt against Football Bowl Subdivision opponents. Auburn gained 9.5 yards per rush against Arkansas, with Eli Stove and Kam Martin racking up 174 combined yards on only 10 carries.
The Tigers’ defense meanwhile has only given up more than 20 points once all season, in a 29-16 loss to Texas A&M as 1-point favorites, but might face its toughest test. Ole Miss ranks fifth in the nation on offense by S&P.
Lean: Ole Miss plus-4.5
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Clemson minus-4 at Florida State, over/under: 60.5; 5 p.m. on ABC
Clemson only projected to come into three games as a favorite of less than 10 points at the beginning of the season.
It eked out victories in the first two, a 19-13 win at Auburn as 7.5-point favorites and a 42-36 escape against Louisville as 1-point underdogs, but now faces the opponent that was supposed to be the toughest. Florida State was a 3.5-point favorite over Clemson in game of the year lines over the summer.
The 7.5-point shift doesn’t seem unjustified based on the way the year has played out. While Clemson hasn’t quite lived up to expectations with four of seven victories coming by a touchdown or less, Florida State has fallen miles short of its own.
The Seminoles’ defense consistently let them down in a 3-2 straight-up, 2-2 against the spread — sports books didn’t line a 53-8 win over Charleston Southern — start to the season. Now that it’s playing better, the offense has sputtered by Florida State’s standards.
The Seminoles have gained only 5.5 yards per play combined in a 17-6 win versus Wake Forest as 23.5-point favorites and a 20-19 nailbiting victory as a 2-point underdog against Miami. Clemson wouldn’t look like the place where the offense will break out considering the Tigers are sixth in the nation at surrendering 4.3 yards per play with senior Ben Boulware one of the most effective linebackers in the country.
And Clemson quarterback Deshaun Watson racked up 404 yards of total offense against a stingier Florida State defense last year.
Play: Clemson minus-4
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Extra points
Missouri minus-5.5 vs. Kentucky Still trying to beat Kentucky, which has won two in a row despite not playing any better. The Wildcats’ wins came via last-second field goal against Mississippi State and a goal line stand versus Vanderbilt.
Penn State minus-13.5 at Purdue I get the idea — Fade Penn State off of a big win, but the Nittany Lions have been undervalued through three straight covers. And Purdue should never be a public underdog regardless of circumstance.
Army plus-7 at Wake Forest Wake Forest’s offense is too anemic to lay this many points. Army should be sharp after uncharacteristically giving away a game to North Texas last week with seven turnovers.
UConn plus-7 at East Carolina Pirates’ defense is in the bottom 10 of the nation in allowing 6.7 yards per play. It’s no wonder they’ve dropped five in a row both straight-up and against the spread.
Georgia Tech minus-6.5 vs. Duke Blue Devils are getting a boost from hanging with Louisville in a 24-14 loss and knocking off Army 13-6 in their last two games. But they were outplayed in both contests with the final score not reflecting what took place on the field.
Case Keefer can be reached at 702-948-2790 or [email protected]. Follow Case on Twitter at twitter.com/casekeefer.
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