Las Vegas Sun

March 28, 2024

Vegas pick’em: NFL Week 9 winners against the spread

NFL Games 10/30/16

Cincinnati Bengals cornerback Dre Kirkpatrick (27) tries to tackle Washington Redskins tight end Jordan Reed (86) during an NFL Football game between Cincinnati Bengals and Washington Redskins at Wembley Stadium in London, Sunday Oct. 30, 2016. (AP Photo/Tim Ireland)

Week 9: Broncos at Raiders

Which side would you take in Broncos at Raiders? (Poll consensus year to date: 5-3)
Broncos pick'em — 61.9%
Raiders pick'em — 38.1%

This poll is closed, see Full Results »

Note: This is not a scientific poll. The results reflect only the opinions of those who chose to participate.

Bettors who gambled on a tie game occurring in the NFL this season probably feel like they deserve to be paid double.

It’s the year of the tie in the NFL, as last week made it the first season since 1997 where two games ended with no winner or loser — and it happened in back-to-back weeks no less. Week 8’s 27-27 stalemate between the Cincinnati Bengals and Washington Redskins in London joined the Seattle Seahawks and Arizona Cardinal’s unresolved 6-6 struggle from Week 7.

The latter was more significant for preseason prop bettors, as William Hill U.S. sports books had a wager paying out plus-110 (risking $1 to win $1.10) for a tie this season. Offshore sports books are running with the theme, as now more props involving ties are now available.

A question asking if there will be another tie in Week 9 pays out plus-1750 on the “yes” and minus-3500 (risking $35 to win $1) on the “yes”. That implies only a 5 percent chance after accounting for the house’s hold.

Talking Points can get behind more ties if they continue to come in games where it’s picked the underdog. The blog has cashed on both tie games, with the Seahawks plus-2 and Redskins plus-3, in a season where cashing on any two given games has been rare.

The overall season record now stands at 52-67-1 after a 7-6 mark last week. It was the first winning week in a month, but not near strong enough to make a real push back towards .500.

Check below for this week’s picks, separated as always into three confidence categories. Lines are the best currently available in Las Vegas on the chosen sides.

Plays (8-20-1)

Denver Broncos pick’em at Oakland Raiders Denver defeated a strong San Diego team handily last week while Oakland escaped a mediocre Tampa Bay, so there’s no good reason to explain why the early line crashed from Broncos minus-2. Much like the Raiders’ 26-10 loss to the Chiefs in a virtual pick’em two weeks ago, this feels like a spot to sell on the hype they’re receiving.

Baltimore Ravens minus-1 vs. Pittsburgh Steelers Not concerned about the possible return of Ben Roethlisberger, who has hurt his team on a near annual basis when he comes back too soon from injury. Baltimore has beaten Pittsburgh at home in three straight meetings, including as an 11-point underdog last December.

Miami Dolphins minus-3.5 vs. New York Jets Odds still haven’t caught up to the Dolphins, who are rested off a bye as a bonus, so they remain a bet-on. Miami is one of five teams in the NFL with a yard per play differential of 0.6 or better — it’s gaining an average of 6.1 yards and giving up 5.4 — while New York is one of five with a margin of 0.6 or worse — it’s surrendering an average of 5.9 yards and gaining 5.3.

Minnesota Vikings minus-6 vs. Detroit Lions Must buy low on the Vikings, which were on a 10-game against the spread winning streak two weeks ago and hailed as the best team in the NFL. It’s jarring to see 75 percent of the action come in against them as result of the glaring offense of two straight mediocre performances on the road.

Leans (23-21)

Tennessee Titans plus-5 at San Diego Chargers Like that the Titans had extra time to prepare off an easy win on Thursday Night Football against the Jaguars while the Chargers are coming off a physically grueling loss at Denver. Tennessee’s offense has quietly played extremely well, and is up to eighth in Football Outsiders’ DVOA ratings.

Los Angeles Rams plus-3.5 vs. Carolina Panthers One great performance, a 30-20 win over the Cardinals, doesn’t prove the Panthers are back to last year’s form, especially not with having to travel west to face another strong defense. Rams’ offense is also coming along, as they’ve outgained their last three opponents despite all the games being close losses.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers plus-4 vs. Atlanta Falcons Can’t pass on getting one more point on the betting line than in the first matchup, where the Buccaneers defeated the Falcons 31-24 on the road in Week 1. Jameis Winston picked apart Atlanta’s poor defense once, and can do it again.

San Francisco 49ers plus-3.5 vs. New Orleans Saints The 49ers’ secondary, with solid veterans like Antoine Bethea and Eric Reid, might be the only redeemable part of their team. Can’t lay a price like this with the Saints, which haven’t given this many points on the road since 2014.

Guesses (21-26)

Jacksonville Jaguars plus-8.5 at Kansas City Chiefs Dying to discontinue the destructive pattern of backing the Jaguars every week, but there’s no good reason to ever lay more than a touchdown with Nick Foles at quarterback. The Jaguars’ defense, which is still seventh in the NFL at giving up 5.2 yards per play despite its worst performance of the year last week, should at least be able to limit Kansas City’s scoring chances.

Philadelphia Eagles plus-2.5 at New York Giants They might have the same 4-3 straight-up records, but the Eagles have an NFC-best plus-62 point differential. The Giants have actually gotten outscored by eight points on the year, as their rookie head coach Ben McAdoo hasn’t looked nearly as poised as Philadelphia’s Doug Pederson.

Green Bay Packers minus-7 vs. Indianapolis Colts The “What’s wrong with Aaron Rodgers?” stories should cease after he takes on a defense giving up 7.6 yards per pass attempt. The Colts may put up a lot of points of their own, but the Packers will definitely light up the scoreboard.

Buffalo Bills plus-7 at Seattle Seahawks This is a simple case of too many points. The only teams the Seahawks have beaten by more than a touchdown this year are the 49ers and Jets, quite possibly two of the worst three teams in the NFL.

Dallas Cowboys minus-7 at Cleveland Browns Bookmakers have gotten burned by the Cowboys’ five straight covers in part because they haven’t adjusted their power ratings aggressively enough. Dallas could lay more points against the worst team in the NFL, and the public would still back it all the way up to minus-10, if not higher.

Case Keefer can be reached at 702-948-2790 or [email protected]. Follow Case on Twitter at twitter.com/casekeefer.

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