National championship by the odds: Vegas preview of Alabama vs. Clemson

By Case Keefer (contact)

Monday, Jan. 11, 2016 | 2 a.m.

Nick Saban will have coached in more than a quarter of college football’s official national championship games by the time tonight’s showdown between Alabama and Clemson kicks off.

The 64-year-old has reached to the final game in five of the last 11 seasons he’s coached in college football. He’s never let down either his team or his bettors once he’s gotten there.

Saban is a perfect 4-0 straight-up and against the spread going for the trophy, covering by an average of 15.5 points per game. The Crimson Tide have beaten the betting line by 18.5 points in each of their last two appearances under Saban, crushing Notre Dame 42-14 as 9.5-point favorites in 2013 after shutting out LSU 21-0 laying 2.5 points in 2012.

Saban’s other title-game showing with Alabama came in 2010 when the Crimson Tide gave 4 points and defeated Texas 37-21. But there’s an argument that covering minus-7 against tonight’s opponent is the toughest task yet.

The 2009-2010 Longhorns were doomed when quarterback Colt McCoy injured his shoulder on the first drive, while the 2011-2012 Tigers were fatally flawed on offense and the 2012-2013 Fighting Irish used a string of close wins to reach the championship.

Clemson has outscored its opponents by 18 points per game and rates near the top of college football in both offensive and defensive categories.

Will Talking Points side with the reliability of Saban or take coach Dabo Swinney and Clemson to end the run? The blog has posted a 21-18-1 against the spread record picking every bowl game, going 89-85-3 prognosticating the biggest games all year.

It’s above the stated goal of better than 50 percent given the inherent unprofitability of forcing picks on every game, but far from totally satisfying. Going out with a winner would sure help matters.

Read below for the blog’s preview and pick of the college football national championship game.

College Football Playoff National Championship Game: Alabama minus-7 vs. Clemson; over/under: 50.5

5:30 p.m. Monday, University of Phoenix Stadium in Glendale, Ariz.

After the announcement of the college football playoff field, potential championship game lines listed Alabama as a 4-point favorite over Clemson all the way up to the kickoff of the national semifinals on New Year’s Eve. Before the Times Square Ball had dropped that night, Alabama climbed to minus-7 to ring in a recurring motif of this college football season: Discounting Clemson.

Oddsmakers and the betting market had reason to heed Alabama after a 38-0 axing of Michigan State in the second semifinal, but Clemson hacked up a much sturdier Oklahoma team just as viciously in the preceding game. The Tigers, 3.5-point underdogs to the Sooners, covered by 23.5 points in a 37-17 victory. The Crimson Tide, 10-point favorites against the Spartans, beat the number by 28 points.

There wasn’t that large of a gap in the impressiveness of the two performances, certainly not one worth 3 points on the betting line. Certainly not with the knowledge that Michigan State got endowed with undeniably good fortune to reach the playoffs and had some underlying issues defensively.

Neither of those ills infects Clemson, which has a nearly 150-point better scoring margin on the year than Michigan State. The Spartans give up 5.3 yards per play; the Tigers surrender only 4.6. Clemson’s only weakness on defense is a relative lack of depth. The Tigers’ starting 11 is as strong as any team’s in the nation.

It will be a hit if senior All-American defensive end Shaq Lawson is unable to play, but counterpart Kevin Dodd has quietly performed just as effectively on the other side. Linebackers Ben Boulware and B.J. Goodson form arguably the best pair of run-stuffers the Crimson Tide has seen this season.

Alabama is better on defense — much better, even. The Crimson Tide amazingly holds the top spot in Football Outsiders’ S&P ratings in both pass defense and rush defense. Saban’s army of blue-chippers pays off with a large rotation of players, especially along the defensive line, to keep everyone fresh. Clemson sophomore running back Wayne Gallman exploded for one of his best games of the season against Oklahoma, rushing for 150 yards and a touchdown on 26 carries. There won’t be a repeat against SEC Defensive Player of the Year Reggie Ragland, a senior linebacker, and a Crimson Tide defense giving up 2.3 yards per rushing attempt — the lowest total in college football since their own 2011-2012 championship team.

Clemson’s offensive advantage is almost as conclusive as Alabama’s defensive edge, though. The Tigers gain 6.3 yards per play to the Crimson Tide’s 5.7. They have the most valuable player on the field in sophomore quarterback Deshaun Watson. Alabama senior running back Derrick Henry may have won the Heisman, but even in college football where a great running back adds more value than in the NFL, a great quarterback is the preferred luxury. Watson, an equally adept spread passer and edge scrambler, accounts for 338 yards per game to rank eighth in the nation. He struggled passing against Oklahoma, completing 16 of 31 attempts for 187 yards, but a larger sample would indicate the one-game blip isn’t a major cause for concern. Conversely, Alabama senior quarterback Jake Coker posted a career-high 286 passing yards and 160.5 passer rating against Michigan State. Coker hasn’t thrown an interception in nearly 20 quarters, since early in a 31-6 victory over Mississippi State on Nov. 14. That’s conveniently the last time Alabama gave a touchdown on the point spread.

The Crimson Tide merit some positive power-rating adjustment after covering in four of their last five games, but think about that. The undefeated Tigers are getting the same amount of points against the Crimson Tide as the four-loss Bulldogs did five games ago.

Late in the regular season when it began to look like these two teams may play, Alabama originally went on betting boards as a 3-point favorite. This pick would have been significantly tougher if that line held.

Alabama 27, Clemson 24.

Pick: Clemson plus-7

Case Keefer can be reached at 702-948-2790 or [email protected]. Follow Case on Twitter at twitter.com/casekeefer.