Bowl Pick’em Against the Spread: Part 2

By Case Keefer (contact)

Thursday, Dec. 24, 2015 | 2 a.m.

The first 10 games of bowl season felt a lot like the preliminary bouts on a fight card.

Only two major conference opponents tangled as the early bowl slate was compromised mostly of lesser programs trying to work their way up the ranks with increased exposure. Now the headliners are getting closer, and some of the big names in the sport will provide them direct support.

Every power five conference except the SEC will debut in bowl season over the next week. Talking Points is ringside for all of it, picking every bowl game against the spread.

We’re sitting at 5-4-1 after the first set of 10 games. Check out analysis and picks of the next 10 below.

Popeyes Bahamas Bowl: Middle Tennessee plus-4 vs. Western Michigan; over/under: 63.5

9 a.m. Thursday, Thomas Robinson Stadium in Nassau, Bahamas on ESPN

Fellow bowl teams outscored Middle Tennessee by an average of 21 points per game in four meetings during the regular season. Western Michigan was much more competitive, only getting outscored by 6 points per game.

Pick: Western Michigan minus-4

Hawaii Bowl: San Diego State minus-2 vs. Cincinnati; over/under: 56.5

5 p.m. Thursday, Aloha Stadium in Honolulu, Hawaii on ESPN

Expect points above all else. San Diego State runs the ball on 72 percent of its plays behind Canyon Springs graduate Donnel Pumphrey, who’s in the nation’s top 10 with 1,554 rushing yards. The weakness of Cincinnati’s defense is stopping the run. Cincinnati throws on 64 percent of its plays and backup Hayden Moore, who gets the start in Hawaii, is as explosive as injured starter Gunner Kiel. The weakness of San Diego State’s defense is against the pass.

Pick: Cincinnati plus-2

St. Petersburg Bowl: Connecticut plus-4 vs. Marshall; over/under: 44

8 a.m. Saturday, Tropicana Field in St. Petersburg, Fla. on ESPN

The Huskies have the most anemic offense of any team to reach a bowl game, as it ranks 114th in the nation by Football Outsiders’ S&P ratings. Moving the ball might be an even bigger chore against a Marshall defense giving up only 4.7 yards per play.

Pick: Marshall minus-4

Hyundai Sun Bowl: Miami plus-3 vs. Washington State; over/under: 62

11 a.m. Saturday, Sun Bowl in El Paso, Texas on CBS

Miami interim coach Larry Scott has one last audition to stay on incoming coach Mark Richt’s staff. The Hurricanes measurably improved under the former tight ends coach, going 4-1 straight-up and 3-2 against the spread since he took over. Washington State had the nation’s longest against the spread winning streak at eight in a row before losing to rival Washington 45-10 as 7.5-point underdogs without quarterback Luke Falk, who will be back for the Sun Bowl.

Pick: Miami plus-3

Zaxby’s Heart of Dallas Bowl: Washington minus-8.5 vs. Southern Miss; over/under: 55

11:20 a.m. Saturday, Cotton Bowl in Dallas on ESPN

Betting market undervalued Southern Miss, which had gone 4-32 straight-up over the last three seasons, all season as it tied for the nation’s best against the spread record at 10-3. But Washington feasted on overmatched teams, going 5-2 against the spread as a favorite.

Pick: Southern Miss plus-8.5

New Era Pinstripe Bowl: Indiana minus-2 vs. Duke; over/under: 71

Saturday 12:30 p.m. at Yankee Stadium in New York on ABC

Duke collapsed down the stretch, losing four of its last five both straight-up and against the spread largely because of its pass defense. The Blue Devils gave up 9.9 yards per pass attempt in the span for one of the 10 worst rates in the nation. That’s alarming going up against Indiana quarterback Nate Sudfeld. During the same time frame, Sudfeld and the Hoosiers racked up 8.4 yards per pass attempt for one of the top 25 averages in the nation.

Pick: Indiana minus-2

Camping World Independence Bowl: Tulsa plus-13.5 vs. Virginia Tech; over/under: 61.5

Saturday 2:45 p.m. at Independence Stadium in Shreveport, La. on ESPN

In his 23rd and final postseason appearance, Virginia Tech coach Frank Beamer comes in as the biggest bowl-game favorite of his career. Beamer is 10-12 straight-up, 10-11-1 against the spread in bowl games throughout his career. Not many of those previous teams were as lifeless offensively as this year’s Hokies, which average 4.7 yards per play against Football Bowl Subdivision opponents to rank 113th in the nation. But they’ll meet their match in the Hurricanes, which give up 6.4 yards per play on defense to rank 114th in the nation.

Pick: Tulsa plus-13.5

Foster Farms Bowl: UCLA minus-6.5 vs. Nebraska; over/under: 61

Saturday 6:15 p.m. at Levi’s Stadium in Santa Clara, Calif. on ESPN

No team could carry on the college football tradition of playing well in a postseason bid they’re told they don’t deserve better than the Cornhuskers. Nebraska went 5-7 straight-up and only made a bowl game because the NCAA ran out of otherwise eligible teams. They’ll try to avoid tallying the program’s most losses since 1957 against a depleted Bruins team that might be without a couple offensive linemen in addition to a number of defensive injuries they suffered through the year.

Pick: Nebraska plus-6.5

Military Bowl Presented By Northrop Grumman: Pittsburgh plus-3 vs. Navy; over/under: 53.5

Monday 11:30 a.m. at Navy-Marine Corps Memorial Stadium in Annapolis, Md. on ESPN

It doesn’t count as an official home game but Navy gets to play on a field where it went 6-0 straight-up, 5-1 against the spread this season. Pittsburgh went 5-1 straight-up and against the spread on the road but arguably not against any opponent as stiff as Navy, which sits as the No. 12 team in the nation by Football Outsiders’ F/+ ratings.

Pick: Navy minus-3

Quick Lane Bowl: Central Michigan plus-6 vs. Minnesota; over/under: 49.5

Monday 2 p.m. at Ford Field in Detroit on ESPN2

Minnesota failed to cover in beating a pair of lesser MAC opponents, Kent State and Ohio, by three points each earlier in the year, but the close calls were largely due to careless mistakes including a minus-4 turnover margin. The Golden Gophers are one of 18 teams in the nation holding opponents to 6 yards per pass attempt or less, and the Chippewas have no running game.

Pick: Minnesota minus-6

Case Keefer can be reached at 702-948-2790 or [email protected]. Follow Case on Twitter at twitter.com/casekeefer.