Bowl Pick’em Against the Spread: Part 1

By Case Keefer (contact)

Saturday, Dec. 19, 2015 | 2 a.m.

For some, it’s the change in the weather or the colors of the tree leaves. For others, it’s the proliferation of Christmas music and lights.

Sports bettors know it’s the holiday season when bowl games start. Clear the way for the festivities because college football’s postseason begins today with the first five of an all-time high 40 bowl games over the next three weeks.

Talking Points will preview and pick all of them through the national championship from a betting perspective, an annual tradition that’s served the blog quite well. After going 24-15 against the spread picking every bowl game last year, the record over the last five years stands at 97-80-2.

That’s more acceptable than the blog’s regular season record picking the 10 biggest games every week, which dwindled to 68-67-2 with a horrendous finish. The goal remains to finish above .500, which is unprofitable but a fair target given the difficulty of forcing a pick on every game.

Check below for picks from the first 10 bowl games of the year.

Gildan New Mexico Bowl: Arizona minus-8 vs. New Mexico; over/under: 65

11 a.m. Saturday, University Stadium in Albuquerque, N.M., on ESPN

Ninety-five percent of the money at William Hill sports books has come in on New Mexico, which must be a record for a Mountain West vs. Pac-12 matchup. The Lobos are getting the benefit of playing at home, and finished the season with outright upsets in three of four games. Arizona has gone the opposite direction, losing four of five straight-up to end the year and needing an overtime win over Utah just to reach bowl eligibility. The Wildcats were one of the most injured teams in the nation all season, but both quarterback Anu Solomon and linebacker Scooby Wright are probable to play Saturday. Running back Nick Wilson will not join them, as he’s out for unspecified reasons.

Pick: Arizona minus-8

Royal Purple Las Vegas Bowl: BYU plus-2.5 vs. Utah; over/under: 51.5

12:30 p.m. Saturday, Sam Boyd Stadium in Las Vegas on ABC

Expect suspense from this heated rivalry. A touchdown or less has decided seven of the nine games between these two teams under their current regimes. Utah coach Kyle Whittingham is 7-2 straight-up and against the spread versus BYU counterpart Bronco Mendenhall. The Utes are also 8-1 straight-up, 6-2 against the spread in bowl games under Whittingham as opposed to the Cougars’ 6-4 straight-up and against the spread during Mendenhall’s tenure. With Mendenhall off to take over the Virginia job, the handicapping question of the game is how that will affect his players. It could be a motivating factor to send the long-time coach off with his 100th career victory at the school, or a distraction with Mendenhall and his staff splitting their work between two jobs simultaneously.

Pick: Utah minus-2.5

Raycom Media Camelia Bowl: Ohio plus-7.5 vs. Appalachian State; over/under: 55

2:30 p.m. Saturday, Cramton Bowl in Montgomery, Ala. on ESPN

The Mountaineers are thrilled to reach the postseason in their first eligible year since moving up to Football Bowl Subdivision. A trip to Mobile, Ala., might be more humdrum for the Bobcats, which have advanced to a bowl game in five of the previous six seasons. Ohio’s offense is certainly much duller than Appalachian State’s. The Mountaineers, behind dual-threat sophomore quarterback Taylor Lamb, are averaging 6.6 yards per play to the Bobcats’ 5.5. They’re better on defense too, surrendering 4.6 yards per play as opposed to 5.7 for Ohio. The Appalachian State statistical edges come despite it facing a much tougher schedule, according to Football Outsiders.

Pick: Appalachian State minus-7.5

AutoNation Cure Bowl: San Jose State minus-3 vs. Georgia State; over/under: 56

4 p.m. Saturday, Citrus Bowl in Orlando on CBS Sports Network

Georgia State closed the season as one of the most popular, and best, bets against the spread. The Panthers saw lines move in their direction behind sharp money on a weekly basis, and they responded by going 6-0-1 against the spread in their final seven including four consecutive straight-up wins. Senior quarterback Nick Arbuckle spurred the turnaround, ranking in the nation’s top 20 in passing yards, touchdowns and passer rating. San Jose State’s Tyler Ervin is in a similar class among running backs, ranking within the nation’s top 25 with 1,469 rushing yards and 13 touchdowns. The defenses look positioned to slow their opponents’ strengths, as Georgia State is No. 38 in the nation against the run by Football Outsiders’ S&P ratings. San Jose State is No. 55 against the pass.

Pick: Georgia State plus-3

R+L Carriers New Orleans Bowl: Arkansas State plus-2.5 vs. Louisiana Tech; over/under: 68.5

6 p.m. Saturday, Superdome in New Orleans on ESPN

The Sun Belt Conference representative has covered in six straight, and eight of nine, in the New Orleans Bowl. Arkansas State emerged as the conference champion this season, albeit a highly improbable one. The Red Wolves knocked off Appalachian State 40-27 as 13-point underdogs last month to take control. Louisiana Tech had a chance to reach the Conference USA Championship Game but got blown out 58-24 as 5-point favorites against Southern Miss in its final regular season game. The Bulldogs have a big edge in offensive firepower as Florida transfer quarterback Jeff Driskel has thrown for more than 3,500 yards and 24 touchdowns and running back Kenneth Dixon is second all-time in the NCAA with 83 career touchdowns. But Arkansas State has played far better on defense down the stretch behind linebackers Khari Lane and Xavier Woodson.

Pick: Arkansas State plus-2.5

Miami Beach Bowl: Western Kentucky minus-2.5 vs. South Florida; over/under: 66.5

11:30 a.m. Monday, Marlins Park in Miami on ESPN

Bettors should have some nerves lining up against either of these teams. South Florida is tied for the best against the spread record in the nation at 9-2-1, including covers in each of their last four games. Western Kentucky isn’t much worse at 8-5 against the spread with a current streak of three straight covers. Willie Taggart did one of the best coaching jobs in the nation turning South Florida around after a 1-3 straight-up start. He rebuilt the offensive scheme around sophomore running back Marlon Mack, who responded by running for 1,273 yards and 6.6 yards per carry. Taggart also deserves some of the credit for Western Kentucky’s explosive offense, which ranks second in the nation at gaining 7.1 yards per play. He recruited senior quarterback Brandon Doughty, who leads the nation with 45 touchdown passes, before departing for South Florida.

Pick: Western Kentucky minus-2.5

Famous Idaho Potato Bowl: Akron plus-7 vs. Utah State; over/under: 47.5

12:30 p.m. Tuesday, Albertsons Stadium in Boise, Idaho on ESPN

Coming in as the first bowl game with a total of less than 50 points should give it away: Both these teams are led by their defenses. Akron senior linebacker Jatavis Brown won Mid-American Conference Player of the Year honors after registering 10.5 sacks and 17.5 tackles for loss. Utah State counterpart Nick Vigil probably had an argument for the Mountain West’s version of the award after ranking second in the nation with 141 solo plus assisted tackles. He must be hoping the blue turf can coax the rest of his comrades into playing they did against the team that usually calls it home. Utah State waxed Boise State 52-26 as 7.5-point underdogs in mid-October to briefly surface as the conference favorite before going 2-4 straight-up, 1-5 against the spread down the stretch. Akron came from the other direction, winning and covering in each of its last four to reach a bowl game for the first time in a decade.

Pick: Akron plus-7

Marmot Boca Raton Bowl: Temple minus-2 vs. Toledo; over/under: 51

4 p.m. Tuesday, FAU Football Stadium in Boca Raton, Fla. on ESPN

This mostly obscure second-year bowl somehow landed one of the most competitive matchups of bowl season. Many sports books opened the matchup as a straight pick’em before all the early money flowed in on Temple. Toledo looks like a traditional bowl bet-against candidate in that it lost its coach, as Matt Campbell took the vacancy at Iowa State. But the Rockets immediately promoted longtime assistant Jason Candle into the role, leaving the prospects of decline debatable. Temple coach Matt Rhule stayed despite some overtures from larger programs and has emphasized nabbing the school’s first 10-win season in 36 years. But Toledo won both of its games as underdogs this season outright, including a shocking 16-14 season-opening upset at Arkansas taking 22.5 points.

Pick: Toledo plus-2

San Diego County Credit Union Poinsettia Bowl: Boise State minus-9 vs. Northern Illinois; over/under: 56

1:30 p.m. Wednesday, Qualcomm Stadium in San Diego on ESPN

The showdown between two of the winningest programs of the last decade isn’t as exciting as it may look. Northern Illinois is mired in its worst season since 2009, while it’s arguably been even longer since Boise State fielded a team this weak. But the Broncos have the better offense, outgaining the Huskies’ by .5 yards per play, so the betting market has boosted them from an opening line of minus-8. Freshman quarterback Brett Rypien had his moments in throwing for just shy of 3,000 yards and 17 touchdowns for the Broncos. The Huskies won’t have their starting quarterback as Drew Hare ruptured his Achilles late in the season. But they are expected to return backup Ryan Graham, who missed the MAC Championship, from a leg injury.

Pick: Northern Illinois plus-9

GoDaddy Bowl: Georgia Southern plus-7.5 vs. Bowling Green

5 p.m. Wednesday, Land-Peebles Stadium in Mobile, Ala. on ESPN

Bowling Green paid for a terrific year that included the best against the spread record in the nation at 10-3 against the spread by losing coach Dino Babers, who’s off to Syracuse. Interim coach Brian Ward will soon join him after this bowl game, leaving the program to Texas Tech receivers coach Brian Ward. Georgia Southern will also have an interim coach here in Dell McGee, but he’s one of three finalists for the full-time position. He might deserve to be the favorite as he’s served as the running backs coach for the Panthers, which rank as the 11th most efficient rushing team in the country per Football Outsiders. The Panthers’ triple-option can be a handful for teams that hasn’t seen any comparable attacks, but then again, so can the Falcons’ passing game that averages 8.7 yards per attempt.

Pick: Georgia Southern plus-7.5

Case Keefer can be reached at 702-948-2790 or [email protected]. Follow Case on Twitter at twitter.com/casekeefer.