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April 24, 2014

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sports betting:

Week 12 NFL picks against the spread for the Sun’s handicapping contest

Coming off the best week in contest history, everyone likes the Dolphins

Image

ASSOCIATED PRESS

Miami Dolphins quarterback Ryan Tannehill (17) warms up before an NFL football game against the Buffalo Bills Thursday, Nov. 15, 2012 in Orchard Park, N.Y.

Sun's NFL betting game of Week 12

Which side would you take in Seattle’s trip to Miami?
Seahawks -3 — 73.3%
Dolphins +3 — 26.7%

This poll is closed, see Full Results »

Note: This is not a scientific poll. The results reflect only the opinions of those who chose to participate.

A well-known betting system suggests that gamblers bet against West Coast teams traveling to the East Coast for early kickoffs.

The approach proved profitable over a number of years, but hasn’t paid dividends this season. The West Coast teams are actually a positive 6-5 against the spread in the situation heading into week 12.

Call the three members of the Las Vegas Sun’s NFL handicapping contest stubborn because they apparently refuse to budge. All three selected the Miami Dolphins as 3-point home underdogs against the Seattle Seahawks in one of Sunday’s 10 a.m. games.

It’s the first time Case Keefer, Ray Brewer and Taylor Bern unanimously lined up on one side of a game. That would usually scream to bet on the other side with the way the contest has played out, but week 11 brought a breakout of sorts.

The prognosticators went a combined 15-3 against the spread — with Bern notching the first ever 6-0 week — to make the overall records more respectable.

The Dolphins will play a major role in measuring this weekend’s success. One trend in the contestants’ favor is how rookie quarterbacks have fared on the road this season. When cast as a favorite specifically, rookie quarterbacks are 1-4 against the spread.

But bettors feel more comfortable backing Seattle quarterback Russell Wilson, a third-round pick last April, over Miami quarterback Ryan Tannehill, a first-rounder, with good reason.

The Seahawks are 7-3 against the spread with Wilson presiding over the league’s ninth-ranked offense, according to Football Outsiders’ DVOA power ratings. The Dolphins have gone 4-6 versus the number and their offense falls near the bottom at 26th.

Additionally, visitors have feasted in Miami over recent years. The traveling team in all Dolphins games, in fact, has posted an incredible 50-25 record against the spread in the last 75 meetings.

Check below for all of this week’s picks. Games are listed in order of kickoff time.

 

Case Keefer

Record: 34-31-1 (4-2 last week)

Cowboys -3 vs. Redskins

Dolphins +3 vs. Seahawks

Raiders +8 at Bengals

Bills +3 at Colts

Chargers +1 vs. Ravens

Packers +2.5 at Giants

 

Ray Brewer

Record: 33-32-1 (5-1 last week)

Jets +7 vs. Patriots

Texans vs. Lions over 50

Redskins vs. Cowboys under 46

Titans -3 at Jaguars

Dolphins +3 vs. Seahawks

Ravens vs. Chargers over 47

 

Taylor Bern

Record: 30-34-2 (6-0 last week)

Buccaneers +1 vs. Falcons

Bears -4.5 vs. Vikings

Dolphins +3 vs. Seahawks

Ravens -1 at Chargers

Rams +2.5 at Cardinals

Giants -2.5 vs. Packers

Case Keefer can be reached at 948-2790 or [email protected]. Follow Case on Twitter at twitter.com/casekeefer.

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