How John Ensign’s re-election challenges stack up against Harry Reid’s

By Anjeanette Damon

Sunday, Jan. 23, 2011 | 2:01 a.m.

Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid’s ability to overcome what appeared to be his certain political demise last year is giving hope to politicians everywhere suffering from upside-down poll numbers.

It has at least given them a convenient line to deflect questions about their viability. Take Republican Sen. John Ensign’s insistence this month that his sinking approval rating is analogous to Reid’s in 2009.

“When you saw Harry Reid ahead of his election, what kind of numbers did he have? OK?” Ensign said defiantly when asked about party leaders suggesting he forgo a re-election campaign.

“Against every Republican he (Reid) was down a couple digits — against people who were unknown. Last time I checked he won by over five points,” Ensign said.

Ensign is losing to every potential Democratic challenger, according to one poll. His approval rating is just 35 percent.

Yes, Reid had similar poll numbers 22 months before voters re-elected him. But the similarities end there.

“Can Ensign do the same thing? Sure, it’s possible,” Democratic strategist Dan Hart said. “But there’s a lot stacked up against him. Harry Reid ran almost the perfect race. His campaign was almost the best ever seen. It’s hard to match those things. Harry Reid was preparing for that race for 12 years.”

Here’s a look at the fundamental differences between Ensign’s difficulties and those Reid had to contend with:

• Scandal: The reason for Reid’s lagging approval rating was different from Ensign’s. In fact, many had trouble pinning down why Reid was so unpopular — a bad economy, quintessential incumbent in an anti-establishment year, his helming the national liberal instead of Nevada issues, etc.

For Ensign, the reason he’s unpopular is much more clear. He had an affair with his best friend’s wife. His parents paid the couple, who both worked for Ensign, nearly $100,000 after the affair was discovered.

And although Ensign dodged an FBI investigation into his actions during the affair’s aftermath, he’s still before the Senate Ethics Committee.

• Primary: Probably the biggest problem for Ensign at the moment is the potential for a difficult primary. In 2009, no Democrat saw Reid’s weakened condition and decided to challenge him.

That likely won’t be the case for Ensign. Rep. Dean Heller, R-Nev., is seriously considering a run. And Lt. Gov. Brian Krolicki has long considered pursuing higher office.

An expensive primary would only further weaken Ensign were he to advance and face the Democrats’ nominee.

• Party support: Reid always maintained the support of his party. Nationally, Democrats refused to abandon the majority leader despite his unpopularity with voters. In Nevada, Reid spent years investing in the party organization. The Nevada Democratic Party was the Harry Reid Party.

Ensign, on the other hand, has irritated some Republican activists because of his perceived antipathy for party functions and organizations. He’s never focused on fundraising or building the organization.

What’s worse, Republican Party leaders are already restless and more concerned with keeping the seat than protecting Ensign’s political future.

“I’m not sure Republicans in the Senate are going to try to tell Nevada voters we can’t do better than John Ensign,” GOP consultant Robert Uithoven said. “I think they’ll do the opposite. I think they’ll say the best chance at keeping a Republican senator will be to go with Dean Heller or Brian Krolicki.”

• Money: Reid raised and spent an astonishing $22 million on his re-election bid. At this point, Ensign has less than $300,000 in campaign cash and he’s still concerned with raising legal defense funds.

• Opponent: Did Reid really overcome ugly poll numbers? Not entirely. They still languish in the fatal-to-anyone-else realm.

“He just made Sharron Angle’s worse,” Uithoven said. “I’m not sure John Ensign would have the ability to demonize someone like Dean Heller. Certainly not the way Harry Reid demonized Sharron Angle.”

So although Ensign likes to compare himself to Reid, some say a more apt comparison might be to former Gov. Jim Gibbons, who stubbornly ran for re-election — and lost — despite a dearth of money and affection from voters.

“The former governor didn’t lose on his failure to utter ‘no new taxes’ enough times, he lost because the base abandoned him for (Gov. Brian) Sandoval as a result of his personal peccadilloes,” one Democrat strategist said. “As long as there is a safe alternative for GOP voters like Dean Heller in the Senate race, Ensign is going to lose.”