The effect of overworked arms

By Jeff Haney

Tuesday, March 24, 2009 | 2 a.m.

Only recently has Sports Illustrated’s Tom Verducci joined Christian Doppler, Pygmalion and Martha Beall Mitchell in the starting rotation of people who have had an “Effect” named for them.

Yet the so-called Verducci Effect has captured the imagination of baseball fans with a statistical bent, fantasy baseball players and, to a lesser extent, gamblers.

The tool developed and popularized by Verducci aims to identify major league pitchers who are likely to post disappointing stats in the forthcoming season.

According to the Verducci Effect, young pitchers — 25 or under — whose workload increased by at least 30 innings pitched from the prior year have a tendency to underperform the next season.

The basis of the indicator is that pitchers of such a tender age often are not physically conditioned to put up those kind of numbers. To paraphrase Verducci, it’s like trying to run a marathon without having built stamina incrementally. In the past couple of seasons, pitchers such as Francisco Liriano, Ian Kennedy and Tom Gorzelanny, among a host of others, have fallen victim to the Effect.

Of the 22 starting pitchers listed on the betting board at the Las Vegas Hilton sports book in regular-season victory over/under wagering, five are candidates to feel the Verducci Effect in 2009.

Betting lines at the Hilton show no clear pattern with regard to the Verducci Effect, and indeed offer opportunities to gamblers who wish to play either “on” or “against” it.

Cole Hamels had the largest jump in innings of the five pitchers in question, pitching 262 1/3 innings including postseason play for Philadelphia — an increase of 72 1/3. The over/under on Hamels’ wins in 2009 opened at 15 1/2 with a slight premium on the “under,” a number consistent with his recent performance. (As always, odds are subject to change.) Hamels won 14 games last year and 15 in 2007.

Chad Billingsley won 16 games last year for the Dodgers yet had a 65-inning increase from the previous season. The over/under on Billingsley for 2009 suggested a bit of a drop-off, opening at 13 1/2 victories.

Jair Jurrjens won 13 games for the Braves last season with an increase of 46 innings pitched, and his opening line of over/under 12 1/2 victories indicates oddsmakers expect a repeat performance.

Mike Pelfrey broke out with 13 wins for the Mets in 2008 but with a jump of 48 innings pitched. The line on Pelfrey opened at over/under 12 1/2 wins for 2009.

San Francisco’s Tim Lincecum will be the most closely watched of the Verducci Effect Five (nongamblers have identified anywhere from seven to 15 pitchers who could be headed for a fall, but the others aren’t on the betting board).

Lincecum, 24, won 18 games and the National League Cy Young Award a year ago, a season in which his workload increased by 49 2/3 innings. Oddsmakers opened the over/under on Lincecum’s 2009 victory total at 15 1/2, even though the Giants, who won 72 games last year, are projected to win 80 this season.

Lincecum’s projected stats also play a role in another season-long proposition at the Hilton, the over/under on the most strikeouts by any pitcher. The line opened at 251 1/2, a total exceeded last year only by Lincecum, who led the majors with 265 strikeouts. A.J. Burnett was the runner-up with 231 strikeouts and Ervin Santana was third with 214.

No one in the majors exceeded 251 1/2 strikeouts in 2005, 2006 or 2007. By contrast, “over” 251 1/2 would have been a winner for the prior 10 consecutive seasons thanks largely to Randy Johnson, who led the majors in strikeouts in six of those years (and nine times overall in his career).

Among the other season-long pitching-related props at the Las Vegas Hilton:

• Most wins by any pitcher, over/under 20 1/2.

• Most losses by any pitcher, over/under 17 1/2.

• Most saves by any pitcher, over/under 47 1/2.

• Most complete games by any pitcher, over/under 7 1/2.