How two trades affected World Series odds

Monday, July 14, 2008 | 2 a.m.

Betting odds on the success of the Milwaukee Brewers in baseball’s postseason play took a hit in the past week after the team’s big trade for left-hander C.C. Sabathia from the Cleveland Indians.

The odds on the Brewers to win this year’s World Series were as high as 40-1 in late June at the Las Vegas Hilton sports book.

After they dealt four prospects for Sabathia last week, those odds dropped significantly to a consensus line of 12-1 in Las Vegas sports books. Sabathia, who won the 2007 American League Cy Young award, joins Ben Sheets to create a formidable 1-2 punch in Milwaukee’s starting rotation.

The Brewers, six games behind the Chicago Cubs in the National League Central heading into Sunday’s games, are vying with division rival St. Louis for a wild-card playoff spot.

The odds on Milwaukee to win the NL pennant dropped roughly in half after the trade to a consensus Las Vegas line of 11-2. (As always, odds vary by casino property and are subject to change.)

Although Sabathia will likely help Milwaukee in its playoff push, there’s no guarantee he’ll be a bargain for day-to-day baseball bettors, as he figures to be installed as a heavy favorite more often than not. In his first outing for the Brewers, for example, Milwaukee went off as a minus-225 (risk $2.25 to win $1) selection before beating the Colorado Rockies.

When the Cubs appeared to respond to the trade by acquiring Oakland ace Rich Harden in a six-player deal a day later, betting odds linked to Chicago — already pretty low — dropped even further.

The Cubs, who opened as a 10-1 shot to win the World Series before the season, had drifted to 4-1 before the trade, according to Las Vegas Hilton odds. Elsewhere in Las Vegas, the Cubs were as low as 5-2 to win the World Series even before the deal for Harden.

After the trade, the Cubs dropped to a consensus 3-1 to win the World Series, making them co-favorites in the majors along with the Boston Red Sox. The typical price on the Cubs to win the NL pennant dropped to 7-5 from an opener of 5-1.

Although the Cubs have baseball’s best record this season, for decades their odds to win the league title and the World Series have traditionally been depressed in Las Vegas sports books because of their status as a sentimental favorite among baseball fans and gamblers.

All-Star game

Riding an 11-game unbeaten streak (including a tie in 2002), the American League is listed as a minus-140 favorite in Tuesday’s All-Star game at Yankee Stadium, with the NL a plus-120 underdog in Las Vegas sports books. The over/under is 10 runs.

In today’s home run derby, Texas Rangers outfielder Josh Hamilton enters as a 3-1 betting favorite in the eight-man field.

Also scheduled to compete are Houston Astros first baseman Lance Berkman (3 1/2-1), Philadelphia Phillies second baseman Chase Utley (4-1), Minnesota Twins first baseman Justin Morneau (4-1), Indians outfielder Grady Sizemore (5-1), Brewers outfielder Ryan Braun (6 1/2-1), Florida Marlins second baseman Dan Uggla (8-1) and Tampa Bay Rays third baseman Evan Longoria (8-1).

Only Berkman and Morneau have competed in the all-star home run derby before.

NBA trade

Oddsmakers upgraded the chances of the Philadelphia 76ers after the team signed two-time all-star Elton Brand to a five-year deal worth a reported $82 million last week.

The Sixers, a middle-of-the-pack team last season that finished 40-42 and squeaked into the playoffs, had been listed at the Las Vegas Hilton sports book at odds of 60-1 to win the 2009 NBA championship.

Those odds dropped to a consensus line of 20-1 in Las Vegas future books with the signing of Brand, who joins point guard Andre Miller to reinvigorate the 76ers’ nucleus.