In the red at Bethpage Black

By Jeff Haney

Wednesday, June 17, 2009 | 2 a.m.

When Bethpage State Park hosted the U.S. Open in 2002, Tiger Woods was the only player in the field of 156 to break par, winning the tournament with a 3-under 277.

The 2009 version of the U.S. Open, which begins Thursday at Bethpage, could yield similar results, according to Las Vegas oddsmakers.

Woods is heavily favored to win the event at odds of plus 175 (risk $1 to net $1.75) at the Las Vegas Hilton sports book.

The over/under on the winning score stands at 277 1/2 — or 2 1/2 under par — at the Hilton.

Although he considers the price on Woods too short to make a play, Las Vegas sports handicapper “Fairway” Jay Ginsbach is recommending a play on the over/under.

Ginsbach projects a winning score in the range of 3 to 5 shots under par, which places him on the “under” 277 1/2.

Not only are there enough big hitters in the field to make a strong run at the notoriously long (7,426 yards) Bethpage Black course, but they could also get an assist from the Long Island weather, Ginsbach said. A 60 percent chance of rain is forecast for Farmingdale, N.Y., on Thursday, with a 40 percent chance Friday through Sunday.

“If the course softens up, it will only enhance the idea that you have to be a longer hitter to have a chance to win,” said Ginsbach, online at sportsmemo.com. “That will hurt some guys in the Zach Johnson mold, who are accurate but don’t hit it out there, because their ball isn’t going to roll.

“But it will also soften up the greens. I think in Sunday’s final round there will at least be the potential for good scoring. Because of the softer conditions and enough players in the mold of Woods and Geoff Ogilvy, I think the winning score will be a good score.”

In a head-to-head matchup, Ginsbach is backing Ian Poulter as a small underdog against Kenny Perry.

Poulter placed second in last year’s British Open. Perry led the Masters in April by two strokes with two holes to go but ended up losing in a three-way playoff.

“Poulter has improved considerably in the past year,” Ginsbach said. “He has built up his confidence and has had some good finishes this year. He hasn’t done well in the U.S. Open, but I’m projecting that his game will continue to improve. I think he has the game and the mental makeup to succeed.

“I’m not sold on Perry. He’s a good, strong driver but he hasn’t been sharp since he folded it up at the Masters.”

In another matchup, Ginsbach is recommending a play on Sergio Garcia as a short favorite against Padraig Harrington. The defending British Open champion, Harrington could be overrated in the betting line, Ginsbach said.

“Harrington is tinkering with his swing and has been looking ordinary at best,” Ginsbach said. “Garcia is a guy I have a hard time with because of his putting, but he’s still one of the best drivers of the golf ball out there.

“Part of what we do in making projections is ask if the course fits him, if he is making strides and if he has the right tools to be a good fit on this course. I think the answer is yes.”

Separately from Fairway Jay’s picks, I’ll risk a unit apiece on each of the following: Woods not to win the tournament at minus 200; David Toms to beat Mike Weir in their head-to-head matchup; and Ogilvy to finish “under” — meaning better than — 17.5 on the leaderboard.