Tiger Woods: The odds on his roaring back from injury

By Jeff Haney

Monday, March 30, 2009 | 2 a.m.

When the 2009 Masters begins April 9, it will mark the start of betting action on several season-long golf wagering propositions linked to Tiger Woods’ performance in the sport’s major tournaments.

A typical prop at the Venetian asks how many majors Woods will win in 2009. “No majors” is the betting favorite at odds of 7-5, followed by one major at 2-1, two majors at 7-2, three majors at 10-1, and all four majors, or a grand slam, at 20-1.

Similar propositions are available at several other sports books.

Woods’ best showing in this area came in 2000, when he won the U.S. Open, the British Open and the PGA Championship. He went 2-for-4 in 2002, 2005 and 2006. Last year he won the U.S. Open but missed the remainder of the year due to reconstructive knee surgery.

A “yes/no” proposition at Lucky’s sports books asks whether Woods will win at least one major in 2009. The “yes” side opened at minus 210 (risk $2.10 to net $1) with the “no” at plus 170.

Discounting the vigorish, or house’s commission, if those odds are accurate, then Woods figures to have about a 65 percent chance of winning at least one major this year. Woods has won at least one major in eight of the past 10 years.

Woods is heavily favored to win the Masters at odds ranging from 2-1 to 5-2 at most Las Vegas sports books. The Las Vegas Hilton has Woods at 11-4, or plus 275.

A few other players have also attracted attention at the betting windows in early Masters wagering.

Second selection

• Phil Mickelson: A unanimous No. 2 choice behind Woods on the betting board, Mickelson’s odds have drifted even lower after he won twice on the PGA Tour this year. Mickelson opened as high as 12-1 in Las Vegas to win the Masters and has since settled in at 7-1 or 8-1. He won the Masters in 2004 and 2006 and placed fifth last year.

Midrange odds

• Sergio Garcia: Considered a perennial contender since his eighth-place finish in the 2002 Masters and his fourth-place showing two years later, Garcia has finished well off the pace at Augusta in the past four years. Still, the odds on Garcia, who recently had a chance to overtake Woods as golf’s No. 1-ranked player, to win the 2009 Masters have been dropping. He’s an 11-1 shot at the Palms, for example, after opening at 25-1.

• Zach Johnson: The odds on Johnson, the 2007 Masters champ, are all over the place in Las Vegas. Some shops have him as low as 25-1 or 30-1, likely a result of his victory at the Sony Open in January. His odds to win the Masters remain higher at other joints, such as the Las Vegas Hilton, which has him at 60-1. (As always, betting lines fluctuate and are subject to change.)

• Anthony Kim: The odds on Kim opened as high as 30-1 on some early lines but have since dropped thanks to a strong finish in 2008 in which Kim made the Ryder Cup team and beat Garcia in their singles match. Kim started well in 2009 with a tie for second in the Mercedes Championship but has not made much noise since. He withdrew from the Arnold Palmer Invitational with flu symptoms last week. Although the odds on Kim to win the Masters have dropped to as low as 7-1 in Las Vegas, they can also be found in the 15-1 to 20-1 range, depending on where you shop.

• Geoff Ogilvy: Ogilvy’s stock has soared with his victories this year in the Mercedes Championship and the Accenture Match Play Championship. Though his odds opened in the range of 35-1 to 40-1 to win the Masters, he has been bet down to as low as 9-2 in Las Vegas.

Long shots

• Nick Watney: Watney has been in contention in most of his eight starts this season, which included a victory in the Buick Invitational. A price of 60-1 to 80-1 looks attractive in the Masters.

• Bubba Watson: Odds on Watson — the No. 1-ranked player in driving distance — of 140-1 at the Venetian and 150-1 at the Las Vegas Hilton appear tempting for bettors who characterize Augusta as a bomber’s delight.